GoaaaaaAaAaAaAALLLLLLL!!!!!!

[Sean]

Precisely Joe! As there are so many attempts and yet so few home runs scored in a typical baseball game, each one (applying Jim logic) must be a complete fluke!

[Lord Jim]

There's unquestionably a certain amount of luck involved in hitting a home run Joe. (If there weren't then the people who hit them would hit a lot more of them.) The pitch has to be in the right place, your timing has to be just right; other variables like wind speed and direction also play a role.

However the skill and training required to hit a 100 mile per hour fast ball over four hundred feet is obviously geometrically greater than the skill and training required to kick a soccer ball. (Most five year olds have the motor skill coordination to do it; that's what makes soccer such a great game for little kids.)

While the luck factor in hitting a home run may vary in individual instances, if I had to assign it a mathematical value, I'd say that at the Major League level, its about 60% talent, training and skill, and about 40% luck....

In the case of that lucky soccer kick, I wouldn't say there was absolutely no talent involved; I'd give it about 10% talent training and skill, and 90% luck....

Every Sunday in this country in the fall and winter, kicks are made in the NFL that have a higher degree of difficulty then that kick. Field goals are regularly made from the 50-60 yard range, with a much smaller targets (the goal uprights) than what this joker had to work with. Also the pressure that a field goal kicker operates under is much higher than what this guy had. (nobody expects a soccer player to kick a goal from that distance, and the game has so many missed scoring opportunities in general, that it wouldn't have been any big deal if he had missed.) And on top of that a field goal kicker has the additional pressure of having the entire opposing team bearing down on him to block his kick, mess with his head, and knock him on his ass.

Like I said, there was some talent involved in what this guy did, but not really very much. I think the folks who are acting like this is some sort of great display of skill are really kidding themselves. Just a showboat who got lucky.

[dales]

And I don't have a dog in this fight except to say I find soccer an extremely boring effeminine sport.

[Guinevere]

The keeper actually got a hand to it... fair play.

Look closely, in slow motion, I don't think he did. The ball his the crossbar on the top of the goal, at the exact right angle to deflect the ball straight down.

As to whether that is skill or luck, it is certainly some of both and clearly takes physical strength and agility. And no, I don't believe you could do that, LJ, in a years worth of trying.

[Joe Guy]

While the luck factor in hitting a home run may vary in individual instances, if I had to assign it a mathematical value, I'd say that at the Major League level, its about 60% talent, training and skill, and about 40% luck....

I don't believe there is much luck involved in a home run, unless it's one that could have been caught. When a batter hits one out of the park, it is all talent training and skill, in my opinion, just like a long distance soccer goal.

In the case of that lucky soccer kick, I wouldn't say there was absolutely no talent involved; I'd give it about 10% talent training and skill, and 90% luck....

Not having followed soccer most of my life as some here have done, I can't really appreciate the talent involved as much as someone who actually knows the game. There are many subtle things in a sport that you learn to appreciate after watching & learning it.

I don't see how anyone can attribute that goal to luck. It took a skilled player to make that decision and to attempt the shot. The only way I would see luck involved in a shot like that is if it had bounced off the goalie's head and into the goal.


Which reminds me - here's the kind of hit that I would call a lucky home run....

[Sean]

The keeper actually got a hand to it... fair play.

Look closely, in slow motion, I don't think he did. The ball his the crossbar on the top of the goal, at the exact right angle to deflect the ball straight down.

I think you're right Guin. I've just watched it on a PC for the first time and although he gets his fingertips very close to it, I don't think he actually touches it. Hard to say for sure without super slo-mo and a better angle.

[Sean]

In the case of that lucky soccer kick, I wouldn't say there was absolutely no talent involved; I'd give it about 10% talent training and skill, and 90% luck....

Not having followed soccer most of my life as some here have done, I can't really appreciate the talent involved as much as someone who actually knows the game. There are many subtle things in a sport that you learn to appreciate after watching & learning it.

I don't see how anyone can attribute that goal to luck. It took a skilled player to make that decision and to attempt the shot. The only way I would see luck involved in a shot like that is if it had bounced off the goalie's head and into the goal.

You are absolutely correct Joe. The 'balls of steel' I mentioned come from the player's confidence in his ability to pull the shot off. Anything but a perfect connection between boot and ball and the ball ends up hitting the corner flag. That player strikes the ball so sweetly because he has the ability to do so. Ability that is a combination of natural skill and hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of dedicated practice.

Countless shots that have little or no chance of succeeding are taken every day in this sport....(much like hockey)

That may be true in Under 12 football Jim but not in the professional game.

Here's a few stats from one of yesterday's games (courtesy of the BBC) to illustrate:

Manchester United:
Shots on Target 9
Shots off Target 7
Goals 2

Swansea City:
Shots on Target 2
Shots off Target 3
Goals 1

You seem to be labouring under the illusion that a football player will gain possession of the ball and then immediately try to score from wherever he happens to be on the pitch.

We're talking about a game where the players kick the ball up and down the field all day long while frequently winding up with a score of 1-0, and 3-0 is considered a rout....

No we're not. A few more stats for you, this time from the English Premier League:

Games played so far this season: 370
Games with one or less goals scored: 93
Games with four or more goals scored: 116

And 3-0 is never considered a rout... you've just made that up!

[Gob]

Manchester United:
Shots on Target 9
Shots off Target 7
Goals 2

Swansea City:
Shots on Target 2
Shots off Target 3
Goals 1

Boo!!BOOOOO!!!! Hiss !!

[Sean]

Why Gob, that was a purely random example... It could've been any Welsh team being beaten by superior Northerners...

[MajGenl.Meade]

... it could have been any Welsh team being beaten by Gareth Bale Hotspur (is that fratricide?)

Swansea:
Shots on Target 3
Shots off Target 11
Goals 1

Tottenham Hotspur
Shots on Target 9
Shots off Target 7
Goals 2

[Gob]

Why Gob, that was a purely random example... It could've been any Welsh team being beaten by superior Northerners...

Now there's two words I've never seen used in a sentence together before, "superior Northeners".

I have to say, what qualifies people as "Northeners" these days is a bit broad...

Brazilians, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, French, Welsh, Mexican, Danish "Northerners?

[Sean]

Didn't you know Gob? When a footballer signs for a club he immediately gives up his heritage and takes on that of the club. Did you never hear Eric Cantona's famous press conference?
"When t'seagulls follow t'trawler it's because they reckon t'sardines is gonna be flung about a bit by 'eck!"

To illustrate, here's a clip of Jan Molby. He was, believe it or not, Danish before he signed for Liverpool...



And another one. This is Joey Barton, a born and bred Scouser, speaking after making his debut for Marseille...



We won't even talk about Steve (Schteve) McClaren... the former England manager who went to manage a team in Holland.

[Gob]

Love it!

[Gob]

[Lord Jim]

Gee, I guess "impossible" just don't mean what it used to....

[rubato]

3 home runs in his first 4 games in the Major Leagues:





Including a grand slam that left Vin Scully speechless.


yrs,
rubato

[dales]

Even though he's a dodger