Plan B Forum

The Melbourne Cup is Australia's major thoroughbred horse race. Marketed as "the race that stops a nation".



It is a 3,200 metre race for three-year-olds and over. It is the richest "two-mile" handicap in the world, and one of the richest turf races. Conducted annually by the Victoria Racing Club on the Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Victoria, the event starts at 3pm (daylight saving time) on the first Tuesday in November.

The first race was held in 1861 (see list of Melbourne Cup winners) over two miles (about 3,218 metres), but was shortened to 3,200 metres (2.0 mi) in 1972 when Australia adopted the metric system. This reduced the distance by 18.688 metres (61.31 ft), and Rain Lover's 1968 race record of 3min.19.1sec was accordingly adjusted to 3min.17.9sec. The present record holder is the 1990 winner Kingston Rule with a time of 3min 16.3sec.

This year's Melbourne Cup line-up includes plenty of overseas horses, prompting local punters and trainers to rally against "the great international invasion". But a close look at Cup statistics tells a different story.

Despite fears that "foreign raiders" are dominating the A$6.2m (£3.4m) Melbourne Cup, only five overseas horses among the 112 that have made the journey to Australia in the past 20 years have won the race that stops the nation.

The breakthrough came in 1993 when Irish trainer Dermot Weld flew in with Irish stayer Vintage Crop and flew out with the trophy and the prize money.

Weld's success stamped the Melbourne Cup as an international race and proved to other foreign owners and trainers that the tyranny of distance did not put Australia's richest horse race out of reach.

Since 1993, the 3,200-metre (two mile) Melbourne Cup has attracted up to 10 fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) overseas-trained horses in the field of 24 each year.

Weld's Vintage Crop returned the following year in 1994 but the favourite failed to score a second victory, finishing seventh. Neither did the overseas favourite Double Trigger win in 1995 nor the foreign favourite in 1996, Oscar Schindler.

It was another nine years after Vintage Crop's 1993 victory before a "foreign raider" - as local trainers and media label them - again succeeded in carrying off the Cup. In 2002, Weld triumphed a second time, with Irish horse Media Puzzle.

There was a four-year lull before Japanese connections entered the winner's circle at Melbourne's Flemington racecourse, with Delta Blues winning in 2006.

Another four years followed and the French-trained and ridden American was first-past-the-post in 2010. The French doubled up a year later in 2011 when Dunaden won the 151st Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup delivers international prestige and a financial wind fall. But getting to the starter's gate at Flemington requires enormous expense, planning and luck.

Overseas horses have to serve a two-week quarantine period at home and another fortnight in quarantine at a centre outside Melbourne to ensure they are not carrying any disease.

It can cost as much as A$100,000 (£55,000) to transport a horse from overseas to Melbourne. There's also trainer, jockey and stabling fees, and race entry.

The cash-rich Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum has invested millions of dollars to bring 19 runners to the Melbourne Cup since 1998 but none have won. He has returned this year with his horse Cavalryman.

Despite the odds stacked against them, famed local trainer Peter Moody, who has two Cup contenders this year with Brambles and Lidari, fears the race will be dominated by internationals in coming years.

Fellow trainers have even called for a cap on the number of internationals allowed to start.

"I am not happy about seeing the prize money go out of the country but it is what we have to learn to deal with," Moody says.

"We have to learn from it and it is probably going to take us the best part of a decade to bounce back and be able to compete with these high-class European stayers."

But Moody knows the tyranny of distance doesn't always triumph. Two years ago, he took the legendary and unbeaten mare Black Caviar to England to win the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot.

Moody's fears are no doubt fed by two internationals winning the two lead-up Cup races, which form part of Australia's spring racing carnival.

Godolphin, founded by the UAE's Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, is yet to have a Melbourne Cup winner despite investing millions
The Irish-trained Adelaide won the A$3m (£1.7m) Cox Plate in Melbourne on 25 October. The race had never been won by a foreign-trained starter before. The Japanese-trained stayer Admire Rakti, which won the Caulfield Cup a week earlier, is a favourite to win the Melbourne Cup.

Australian punters, trainers and owners love foreigners to fly in to prove the Melbourne Cup is an international event. But they want them to fly out empty handed.

Moody, who is yet to add a Melbourne Cup to his trophy cupboard, reckons the locals have to muscle up and take the fight to the internationals rather than try to limit the FIFOs.

"It's an open handicap and that means everyone is involved. Everyone is welcome to have a crack."

Admire Rakti

Weight is the only query with this seven-year-old but most of his top rivals are too close to him. He has been given a perfect Japanese preparation, the same as Delta Blues before his 2006 win. Will appreciate the anticipated firm ground, which could take a toll on others, and has the benefit of an Aussie navigator in Zac Purton.

Cavalryman

A nine-year-old but age hasn't wearied him as he is in career best form, which keeps him on the radar on Tuesday. Failed badly in the 2012 Melbourne Cup, run at a dawdle, but has subsequently been successful in Dubai and the UK. Jockey Craig Williams is a plus.

Fawkner

The best local hope and the hardest to beat. An excellent second in a strong Cox Plate confirms the necessary class, but will it extend to 3200 metres? The gelding was sixth last year after giving a long start – mastermind and owner Lloyd Williams intimated jockey Nick Hall "went to sleep". Expect both horse and man to be lively, mentally and physically, on Tuesday afternoon.

Red Cadeaux

Another old-timer who looks good and has a penchant for Flemington. Second in two previous Melbourne Cups, but I can't see him adding to that tally here.

Protectionist

A five-year-old from Germany, this rising star is potentially the best horse in the race, coming along a similar European trail to Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011). Also has the benefit of Australian experience, finishing fourth in the Herbert Power at Caulfield. I'm gambling against him. It could be the wrong move.

Seismos

Widely travelled and a group 1 winner in Germany. Failed pulling hard in the Caulfield Cup and was subsequently described by jockey Craig Newitt as "dour". Too slow for mine.

Junoob

Benefited from a great Blake Shinn ride to take The Metrop at Randwick but with 55.5 kilograms could be tested against this company. Has the assistance of Hugh Bowman, a great distance rider, but it won't be enough.

Royal Diamond

Another nine-year-old eligible for the pension or the paddock and regarded as the second pick of the John Murtagh stayers. Acts over two miles, but not with any brilliance. Back with the cap-catchers.

Gatewood

Did not like Sydney and a failure for Chris Waller. A Geelong Cup winner (2012) and subsequently back with John Gosden in the UK. His form has been good in much weaker races. Not a contender.

Mutual Regard

Being an Ebor winner last start and still having the bloom of youth at six, he appeals strongly but I did not include him in my first four because he has not had Australian experience. Great rides win the Melbourne Cup and none do it better than his jockey, Damian Oliver.

Who Shot Thebarman

Likes Flemington and is a proven 3200m horse, having won the Auckland Cup. Failed in the Caulfield Cup but on later examination was found to have mucus in his lungs. Lacks the necessary class to figure in the top bracket but, with Glen Boss up, he should get a good passage.

Willing Foe

An eight-year-old which has had three starts in the last two years. Regarded abroad as "gifted", but fragile. Maybe he's just a travelling companion for Godolphin's major player, Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent

Obviously top-class, but a flighty mare. Targeted at the Caulfield Cup but withdrawn because of to injury. Under the circumstances, the 3200m journey is a problem.

Precedence

Remarkably, did not make the field last year when in better form. Had excuses for his last-start Moonee Valley Cup failure and lacks the lead-up credentials of his past three Melbourne Cup attempts. Only the fact that J.B. Cummings is in his credentials entitles him to any respect.

Brambles

Certainly his effort in the Mackinnon at Flemington on Saturday was ordinary, not unlike Viewed (2008) before he won the Big One. But Viewed struck interference. Brambles was too slow but has enough pace to take a position here. However, not where it matters.

Mr O'Ceirin

Concussion plates going on as a gear change indicates the firm ground could be a problem. Also, his recent Cranbourne Cup failure hardly puts him into the form horse category.

Au Revoir

Prepared by Andre Fabre, known as a champion French trainer, the five-year-old can improve fitness-wise on his Moonee Valley Cup third, but could this be more an exploration exercise for the future, for the trainer if not for the horse?

Lidari

Like Lidari, the last four Melbourne Cup winners have been northern hemisphere six-year-olds. He was sixth in the Caulfield Cup and lacks quality and a staying element, in my opinion, but Racing And Sports has him highly, if not, top rated.

Opinion

Catch him on his day and he is better than average. However, this was not the case in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Perhaps a tidal wave would help. But that appears unlikely.

Araldo

Third in The Metrop and that is a reasonable credential, as was his Caulfield Cup fifth. But the 23 launch is hardly a plus for a stayer which needs all the breaks.

Lucia Valentina

Highly talented and the youngest entrant in the race. Produced an outstanding Melbourne Cup trial when third in the Caulfield Cup. So why didn't she make my top four? She has the class but maturity and staying power are the queries.

Unchain My Heart

The Flemington metric two miles are much to her liking, but class and tempo will test this eight-year-old mare, still racing at an age when most of her gender are at stud or in a paddock.

Signoff

With 51kg, he has the handicap to test the topweights, even allowing for the possibility of Joao Moreira riding another half kilo overweight. Trainer Darren Weir has given the five-year-old gelding a strong foundation and he should look sweet in the run for a long way. Then class will kick in. Top three for sure.



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MajGenl.Meade wrote:There's only one race - the Grand National. All else is just roundy-round