Plan B Forum

The suicide rate in the US has surged to its highest level in almost three decades, according to a new report.




The increase is particularly pronounced among middle-age white people who now account for a third of all US suicides.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report did not offer an explanation for the steep rise.

However, other experts have pointed to increased abuse of prescription opiates and the financial downturn that began in 2008 as likely factors.

The report did not break down the suicides by education level or income, but previous studies found rising suicide rates among white people without university degrees.

"This is part of the larger emerging pattern of evidence of the links between poverty, hopelessness and health," Robert D Putnam, a professor of public policy at Harvard, told the New York Times.

CDC reported on Friday that suicides have increased in the US to a rate of 13 per 100,000 people, the highest since 1986.

Meanwhile, homicides and deaths from ailments like cancer and heart disease have declined.

In the past, suicides have been most common among white people, but the recent increases have been sharp.

There's a reason for the sunshinin' sky
And there's a reason why I'm feelin' so high
Must be the season when that
Love light shines all around us

So, let that feelin' grab you deep inside
And send you reelin' where your love can't hide
And then go stealin' through the
Moonlit nights with your lover

Just let your love flow like a mountain stream
And let your love grow with the smallest of dreams
And let your love show and you'll know what I mean
It's the season

Let your love fly like a bird on a wing
And let your love bind you to all livin' things
And let your love shine and you'll know what I mean
That's the reason

There's a reason for the warm sweet nights
And there's a reason for the candlelights
Must be the season when those
Love lights shine all around us

So, let that wonder take you into space
And lay you under its loving embrace
Just feel the thunder as it warms your face
You can't hold back

Just let your love flow like a mountain stream
And let your love grow with the smallest of dreams
And let your love show and you'll know what I mean
It's the season

Let your love fly like a bird on a wing
And let your love bind you to all livin' things
And let your love shine and you'll know what I mean
That's the reason

Just let your love flow like a mountain stream
And let your love grow with the smallest of dreams
And let your love show and you'll know what I mean
It's the season

Let your love fly like a bird on a wing
And let your love bind you to all livin' things
And let your love shine and you'll know what I mean
That's the reason

Just let your love flow like a mountain stream
And let your love grow

Read more: Bellamy Brothers - Let Your Love Flow Lyrics | MetroLyrics

Will the suicide numbers decrease?

Lord Jim wrote:I've been conceding that the data that has been brought to the table here does show a higher likelihood of suicide being committed in households with guns than in households without, (as opposed to the data on homicides, which shows nothing of the sort)

But I've also raised the "chicken or the egg" question about it; ie, do the people get guns because they are suicidal, and that's the method they choose, (if guns weren't available, they'd simply choose something else) or does the presence of a gun in the household somehow make the commission of a suicide more likely?

Seems I was right to raise this question; the statistics on suicide rates between countries shows absolutely no correlation between suicide rates and the relative ease with which one can obtain a firearm in any country.

At this link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... icide_rate

You will see a table ranking the suicide rate per 100,000 of population for 107 countries. (Given the table pasting formating challenges on the forum, there ain't no way I'm going to take the time to copy and paste it all)

The US ranks 34th. Several countries with much stronger gun control laws rank higher (again, all numbers per 100,000 of population) Japan, (some of the toughest gun control laws in the free world) 21.9, France 15.0, New Zealand, 13.2, Austria, 12.8....

The US comes in at 12.0, but right behind us are tough gun law countries Sweden and Denmark, (each at 11.9) Ireland and the UK (both 11.8) and Canada and Iceland at 11.3....

Now, there are many factors that that go into explaining suicide rates, social, cultural, economic, etc, (for example, it's logical to assume that one of the reasons the rate is so high in Japan is related to the whole "face" and "shame" thing...)

But these numbers pretty conclusively demonstrate is that the relative availability of firearms isn't one of those factors...

1-2. Gun availability is a risk factor for suicide (literature reviews).

We performed reviews of the academic literature on the effects of gun availability on suicide rates. The preponderance of current evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for youth suicide in the United States. The evidence that gun availability increases the suicide rates of adults is credible, but is currently less compelling. Most of the disaggregate findings of particular studies (e.g. handguns are more of a risk factor than long guns, guns stored unlocked pose a greater risk than guns stored locked) are suggestive but not yet well established.

Miller, Matthew; Hemenway, David. The relationship between firearms and suicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 1999; 4:59-75.

Miller, Matthew; Hemenway, David. Gun prevalence and the risk of suicide: A review. Harvard Health Policy Review. 2001; 2:29-37.


3. Across states, more guns = more suicide

(cross sectional analyses)

Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership rates, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and suicide across 50 states over a ten year period (1988-1997). After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, across the United States, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of suicide, particularly firearm suicide.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Household firearm ownership levels and suicide across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997. Epidemiology. 2002; 13:517-524.


4. Across states, more guns = more suicide (2)

(cross sectional analyses)

Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and suicide across states, 1999-2001. States with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm suicide and overall suicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups. It remained true after accounting for poverty, urbanization and unemployment. There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm suicide.

Miller, Matthew; Lippmann, Steven; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Household firearm ownership and rates of suicide across U.S. states. Journal of Trauma. 2007; 62:1029-35.


5. Across states, more guns = more suicides

(time series analysis)

Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and suicide over time, 1981-2001. Changes in the levels of household firearm gun ownership was significantly associated with changes in both firearm suicide and overall suicide, for men, women and children, even after controlling for region, unemployment, alcohol consumption and poverty. There was no relationship between changes in gun ownership and changes in non-firearm suicide.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David; Lippman, Steven. “The association between changes in household firearm ownership and rates of suicide in the United States, 1981-2002.” Injury Prevention. 2006; 12:178-82.


6. Across states, more guns = more suicide (Northeast)

We analyzed data on suicide and suicide attempts for states in the Northeast. Even after controlling for rates of attempted suicide, states with more guns had higher rates of suicide.

Miller, Matthew; Hemenway, David; Azrael, Deborah. Firearms and suicide in the Northeast. Journal of Trauma. 2004; 57:626-632.


7. Across U.S. regions, more guns = more suicide

(cross sectional analysis)

We analyzed the relationship of gun availability and suicide among differing age groups across the 9 US regions. After controlling for divorce, education, unemployment, poverty and urbanization, the statistically significant relationship holds for 15 to 24 year olds and 45 to 84 year olds, but not for 25 to 44 year olds.

Birckmayer, Johanna; Hemenway, David. Suicide and gun prevalence: Are youth disproportionately affected? Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior. 2001; 31:303-310.


8. Differences in mental health cannot explain the regional more guns = more suicide connection.

We analyzed the relationship of gun availability and suicide among differing age groups across the 9 US regions. Levels of gun ownership are highly correlated with suicide rates across all age groups, even after controlling for lifetime major depression and serious suicidal thoughts

Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. The association of rates of household handgun ownership, lifetime major depression and serious suicidal thoughts with rates of suicide across US census regions. Injury Prevention. 2002; 8:313-16.


9. Gun owners do not have more mental health problems than non-owners

We added questions to, and analyzed data from the National Comorbidity Study.

Gun owning households do not have more mental health problems than non-gun owning households; differences in mental health do not explain why gun owners and their families are at higher risk for completed suicide than non-gun owning families.

Miller, Matthew; Molnar, Beth; Barber, Catherine; Hemenway, David; Azrael, Deborah. Recent psychopathology, suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts in households with vs. without firearms: findings from the National Comorbidity Study Replication. Injury Prevention. 2009; 15:183-87.


10. Gun owners are not more suicidal than non-owners

We analyzed data from the Second Injury Control and Risk Survey, a 2001-2003 representative telephone survey of U.S. households. Of over 9,000 respondents, 7% reported past-year suicidal thoughts, and 21% of these had a plan. Respondents with firearms in the home were no more likely to report suicidal thoughts, plans or attempts, but if they had a suicidal plan, it was much more likely to involve firearms. The higher rates of suicide among gun owners and their families cannot be explained by higher rates of suicidal behavior, but can be explained by easy access to a gun.

Betz, Marian E; Barber, Catherine; Miller, Matthew. Suicidal behavior and firearm access: results from the second injury control and risk survey (ICARIS-2). Suicide and Life Threatening Behaviors 2011; 41:384-91.


11. Adolescents who commit suicide with a gun use the family gun

The vast majority of adolescent suicide guns come from parents of other family members.

Johnson, Rene M; Barber, Catherine; Azrael, Deborah; Clark, David E; Hemenway, David. Who are the owners of firearms used in adolescent suicides? Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior. 2010; 40:609-611.


12. The case-fatality rate for suicide attempts with guns is higher than other methods

Across the Northeast, case fatality rates ranged from over 90% for firearms to under 5% for drug overdoses, cutting and piercing (the most common methods of attempted suicide). Hospital workers rarely see the type of suicide (firearm suicide) that is most likely to end in death.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. The epidemiology of case fatality rates for suicide in the Northeast. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 2004; 723-30.


13. The public does not understand the importance of method availability

.

Over 2,700 respondents to a national random-digit-dial telephone survey were asked to estimate how many of the more than 1,000 people who had jumped from the Golden Gate Bridge would have gone on to commit suicide some other way if an effective suicide barrier had been installed. Over 1/3 of respondents estimated that none of the suicides could have been prevented. Respondents most likely to believe that no one could have been saved were cigarette smokers and gun owners.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Belief in the inevitability of suicide: Results from a national survey. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior. 2006; 36:1-11.


14. Physicians need to do more to help reduce access to lethal means

This commentary presents the overwhelming evidence that the availability of lethal means increases the suicide rate and argues that physicians need to take an active role in reducing access for potentially suicidal individuals.

Miller, Matthew; Hemenway, David. Guns and suicide in the United States. The New England Journal of Medicine. 2008; 359:989-991.

... "

The vast majority of adolescent suicide guns come from parents of other family members

If you denying science anyway just deny all of it.

MajGenl.Meade wrote:Thank you, rubato. The point was not to deny that the availability of GUNS is a factor in suicide.

The point was that gun suicides are likely committed using LEGALLY OBTAINED guns and the anti-gun bloviators do not propose to make guns ILLEGAL. OK, some do but they are irrelevant.

... "

Publishing accurate information about the fact that guns in the home kill more than they protect

rubato wrote:The data on gun ownership has been avail. for a long time. You are far more likely to die of homicide or suicide if you keep a gun in the house than not:


http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/160/10/929.full


yrs,
rubato

Lord Jim wrote:This is an interesting study, but it has some serious contradictions and flaws.

I'm going to analyze the numbers on homicide , (this study analyses both homicide and suicide , and then lumps them together to reach it's conclusion; the first major flaw) since they are obviously two completely different kinds of events, with two completely different sets of factors involved. (Suicide should be discussed separately.)

First, the contradiction, as relates to homicide. Here's the studies conclusion:

In our study, the risk of dying from a firearm-related homicide or suicide [as I said, the study's conclusion lumps these together]was greater in homes with guns

From the same study:

an estimated 40 percent of adults in the United States report keeping a gun in the home for recreational or protective purposes

According to the study's footnote, that the number comes from a Justice Department survey conducted in 2001. I can't find the original report, but I suspect the researchers may be misstating that somewhat, (substituting "adults" for "households") based on the results of this 2005 Gallup poll:

How many Americans personally own guns, and what do they use them for? A recent Gallup Poll* shows that 3 in 10 Americans personally own a gun; most gun owners say they use their guns to protect themselves against crime, for hunting, and for target shooting. Gun ownership varies by different groups in the country, with men more likely to be gun owners than women, Southerners and Midwesterners more likely than Easterners or Westerners, Republicans more so than Democrats, and older rather than younger Americans.

Gun Ownership

The poll, conducted Oct. 13-16, finds that 4 in 10 Americans report they have a gun in their homes, including 30% who say they personally own a gun and 12% who say another member of their household owns it. These results show essentially no change since this question was last asked in 2000. At that time, 27% of Americans said they personally owned a gun and 14% said another household member owned one.



http://www.gallup.com/poll/20098/gun-ow ... erica.aspx

So, it seems to me the fair thing to do based on that, would be to substitute "households" for "adults" and then accept an estimate of somewhere around 40% or slightly higher as houesholds where a firearm is present.

Now, again, from the Oxford study rube quotes:

Nearly three quarters of suicide victims lived in a home where one or more firearms were present, compared with 42 percent of homicide victims and one third of those who died of other causes

Well, gee whiz....

We have roughly 40% of the households with firearms, and 42% of homicides occurring in households where firearms are present....

According to the Oxford study's own data, the differentiation between homicides occurring in households with firearms and without, is statistically insignificant.... not "greater"....

But it's worse than that...(here's one of the serious flaws)

Look at the methodology the Oxford study employs:

We used the death certificates for information on the decedent’s cause and manner of death and proxy-respondent interviews for all other demographic and behavioral information on the decedent. The study sample consisted of deaths that occurred in the home. Included were persons who subsequently died en route to or at a hospital. Deaths were classified by whether they were homicides (n = 490; International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes E960–E969), suicides (n = 1,049; International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes E950–E959), or the result of other causes (n = 535). Accidental poisonings or poisonings of undetermined intent, unintentional firearm injuries and firearm injuries of undetermined intent, and other deaths of undetermined cause were excluded from the study sample on the basis that they could be homicides or suicides.

See the problem here? For their statistical purposes, they are classifying any death caused deliberately by a firearm as a "homicide". This must be the case because nowhere on that list of factors they excluded from their homicide by firearm criteria, does the phrase, "death by someone in the household using a firearm for self defense" appear.

In other words, in order to get to their 42% number, they have included the deaths of home invaders in the number and labeled them "homicides". This represents illegitimate methodology, and provides misleading conclusions, since shooting and killing someone who invades your home is not legally defined as "homicide".

The conclusion to be drawn from all of this, is that despite the fact that the the authors of this study went to great pains to conduct much of what they did in an apparently scientific manner, they failed to do so in some key and important ways, tainting their conclusions, and strongly suggesting that their results were driven more by an agenda than by objective inquiry.

To summarize, two decisions they made point to this, quite clearly:

1. The decision to lump two completely different kinds of actions, (suicide and homicide) together in order to be able to state their conclusion. (Since they must have realized that stating them separately wouldn't have shown a statistical difference regarding homicide)

2.The decision to lump all deliberate firearms deaths together and label them as "homicides" without regard to whether or not the person who died was a perp or a vic.

I'm really glad rube posted this, because it has given me an opportunity to illustrate something I have talked about before. (most recently in a discussion about second hand smoke) The way in which something can "look scientific" but if you really drill down you can see how by fudging and blurring key distinctions, results can be massaged to reach the conclusions that the "researchers" wanted to reach in the first place.

This study is a classic case in point.

rubato wrote: Focusing on whether they are obtain legally or no in a country which makes buying a gun easier than buying a car is amazingly bootless.

22. Differences in suicide rates across the US are best explained by gun prevalence

This summary of the scientific literature on suicide in the United States emphasizes the importance of levels of household firearm ownership in explaining different rates of suicide over time and across states, households and genders.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deboarh; Barber, Catherine. Suicide mortality in the United States: The importance of attending to method in understanding population-level disparities in the burden of suicide. Annual Review of Public Health 2012;33:393-408.


23. Reducing access to lethal means can begin to reduce suicide rates today

This editorial in an issue of the flagship public health journal devoted entirely to veteran suicide emphasizes the importance of the availability of firearms in determining whether suicide attempts prove fatal.

Miller, Matthew. Preventing suicide by preventing lethal injury: the need to act on what we already know. American Journal of Public Health 2012; 102(S1):e1-3.


24. The main factor explaining differences in suicide rates across states is gun ownership

Even after accounting for suicide attempt rates, levels of firearm ownership largely explain the variation in suicide mortality across the 50 states.

Miller, Matthew; Barber, Catherine; Azrael, Deborah; White R. .Firearms and suicide in the United States: is risk independent of underlying suicidal behavior? American Journal of Epidemiology 2013.

rubato wrote:Publishing accurate information about the fact that guns in the home kill more than they protect and restricting access to guns (while not making them completely illegal) will reduce the current pointless stupid loss of life.
yrs,
rubato

This summary of the scientific literature on suicide in the United States emphasizes the importance of levels of household firearm ownership in explaining different rates of suicide over time and across states, households and genders.

Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deboarh; Barber, Catherine. Suicide mortality in the United States: The importance of attending to method in understanding population-level disparities in the burden of suicide. Annual Review of Public Health 2012;33:393-408.