Catch A Wave And You're Sittin' On Top Of The World....

[Lord Jim]

Especially if you're a Republican candidate for Congress:

August 30, 2010

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.


These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats -- one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.



Large leads on the generic ballot are not unprecedented for Democrats. The widest generic ballot lead in Gallup's history was 32 points in the Democrats' favor, measured in July 1974, just prior to Republican President Richard Nixon's resignation over the Watergate scandal. This large margin illustrates Democrats' historic dominance over Republicans in registered voters' party identification in the decades since World War II. Democrats controlled the House of Representatives continually between 1955 and 1995, and routinely held generic ballot leads in the double digits during that period.

Republicans Have 25-Point Lead on Enthusiasm

Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be "very" enthusiastic about voting, and now hold -- by one point -- the largest such advantage of the year.



Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup's likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP's favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

Bottom Line

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall's midterm congressional elections. Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans' presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major "wave" election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup's generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-U ... allot.aspx

(Also posted at CSB)

Independent political pollster and analyist Charlie Cook, (hardly a right wing flack...he consults for MSNBC) said this morning that he expects the GOP to pick up between 50-60 seats in the house, and to wind up with at least 49 in the Senate...(with a one in three chance of taking control...The Republicans need 51 to do that since with a 50-50 split, Biden breaks the tie.)

[rubato]

Oh, boy.

The party that fucked us into the worst social and economic disaster in 80 years is gaining ground.

And not only are they too corrupt and stupid to admit their mistakes, they have promised to repeat them.

Just how stupid are Republican voters anyway? The only ones who are better off, in purely selfish terms, are the small minority who are in my tax bracket. 95% of the US are fucked, fucked, fucked.


yrs,
rubato

[Big RR]

But face it rubato, it's not like the dems have given us that much in the past two years. At least after the mid term elections Obama will have the republicans to blame for his lack of results--right now he only has himself. From what I've seen, either way we're all fucked, fucked, fucked.

[dales]

[Gob]

From an outsider's perspective, it seems that Obama is on a hiding for nothing. The right wing press in the USA has been on the attack since day one.

I'm really looking forward to another Republican administration, it virtually guarantees the end of the USA as a world power, and the futile invasion of Iran. (I AM anti-American, don't cha kno? )

[Lord Jim]

From an outsider's perspective, it seems that Obama is on a hiding for nothing. The right wing press in the USA has been on the attack since day one.

The vast majority of the mainstream press in the US, (which is anything but "right wing") had a "thrill up the leg" thing going on for Obama from the day he announced his candidacy until quite recently in his Presidency....(Hey, you don't have to take my word for it...just ask Hillary Clinton supporters)

It would be fair to say that no American political figure in modern times, received a more fawning and unquestioning press than this man has; (with the sole exception of Fox News and a handful of talk show hosts) ....

Now that finally, at long last, at least some elements of the MSM are starting to behave like professionals rather than groupies, many of the leaders in his Administration are so unused to being treated in an even handed way that they're quite prickly about it...

[Gob]

Jim, what you see as "anything but "right wing"" is hard right to anyone outside of the USA.

Murdoch owns a fair percentage of the "fair and balanced" media over there

Rupert Murdoch heads one of the world's largest media empires, the News Corporation, which in 2008 had some $33 billion in total revenue from a diverse range of media products, including Fox News, Twentieth Century Fox, Dow Jones (publisher of the Wall Street Journal), HarperCollins, MySpace, the New York Post, and hundreds of other newspapers and television stations. [1]

Considered a close ally of neoconservative activists, Murdoch has helped bankroll neoconservatism’s more important media outlets, including the William Kristol-edited Weekly Standard, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, and Fox News. A sign of Murdoch’s commitment to this rightwing faction’s causes was his willingness to support the Standard in spite of yearly losses in the millions; the magazine is widely credited as a pivotal force in building support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. According to a report by Fairness & Accuracy in Reporting, “With a circulation of about 65,000 and annual losses estimated from $1 million … to $5 million … the Standard represented only a tiny fraction of Murdoch's vast media empire.

Now then, where's the equivalent left wing balance to that?

[dales]

Mad magazine.

[Lord Jim]

Well Strop, first of all I have to say that a lot of what you're referring to as "right wing" is just mainstream conservative, (like The Wall Street Journal; who's reporting remains widely respected, even by those who disagree with its editorial views) and of course I'm aware that much of the rest of the world's politics exists on the leftie fringes....(which is a primary reason I have no desire to emulate them....nor do most Americans.)

A lot of the European press gives prominence and serious treatment to stories so crackpot and lacking in any substantiation, that even our most liberal mainstream media organizations won't touch dignify them with coverage. ( much of the bull-stuff about how George W. Bush was behind the 9/11 attacks originate in the European press, for example)

Now then, where's the equivalent left wing balance to that?

My, my, where to begin....

I suppose the short answer would be, "pretty much everything else"

The New York Times, The Washington Post, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, Newsweek, Time Magazine....

Hardly an exhaustive list, but a few of the most prominent Liberal oriented news operations in the US I can think of, off the top of my head....

[Gob]

A lot of the European press gives prominence and serious treatment to stories so crackpot and lacking in any substantiation, that even our most liberal mainstream media organizations won't touch dignify them with coverage. ( much of the bull-stuff about how George W. Bush was behind the 9/11 attacks originate in the European press, for example)

Oh really Jim, I'd like to see a shred of evidence of that!

[Lord Jim]

Since the September 11 attacks, a variety of conspiracy theories regarding the 9/11 attacks have been put forward in Web sites, books, and films. Many groups and individuals advocating 9/11 conspiracy theories identify as part of the 9/11 Truth Movement.[13][14][15] Unlike other conspiracies theories, such as those about the death of Princess Diana, 9/11 conspiracy theories did not emerge immediately after the event. Indeed, most professional conspiracy theorists in the United States appeared to be as shocked as the rest of the population.[8] The first theories that emerged focused primarily on various anomalies in the publicly available evidence, and proponents later developed more specific theories about an alleged plot.[8] One allegation that was widely circulated by e-mail and on the Web, is that not a single Jew had been killed in the attack and that attacks must have been the work of the Mossad, not Islamic terrorists.[8]

The first elaborated theories appeared in Europe. They include a blog published by Mathias Bröckers, an editor at the German newspaper Die Tageszeitung at the time, the book 9/11: The Big Lie by French journalist Thierry Meyssan, the book The CIA and September 11 by former German state minister Andreas von Bülow and the book Operation 9/11, written by the German journalist Gerhard Wisnewski.[8]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_conspiracy_theories

[Gob]

Not exactly the "European press gives prominence and serious treatment" there Jim, some conspiracy theory blogs, plus:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Tageszeitung

[rubato]

But face it rubato, it's not like the dems have given us that much in the past two years. At least after the mid term elections Obama will have the republicans to blame for his lack of results--right now he only has himself. From what I've seen, either way we're all fucked, fucked, fucked.

As you cannot tell the difference between pulling us out of the worst economic and social calamity since the great depression and pushing us into it (which is what the Bush-publicans did and promise to do again) I don't see any further point in discussion with you.

yrs,
rubato