This Is Very Serious Business...

[Crackpot]

Putin realize he pushed this as far as it could go before causing himself irreparable damage?

http://news.yahoo.com/both-sides-bury-d ... 35114.html

Putin to Ukraine rebels: postpone secession vote
Reuters By Matt Robinson and Darya Korsunskaya
2 hours ago

Putin calls for May 11th postponement

DONETSK, Ukraine/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin called on pro-Moscow separatists in Ukraine to postpone a vote on secession just five days before it was to be held, potentially pulling Ukraine back from the brink of violent dismemberment.

It was the first sign the Kremlin leader has given that he would not endorse a referendum planned for Sunday by pro-Russian rebels seeking independence for two provinces in the east, and Russian analysts said they believed the rebels would heed Putin's call to put off the vote.

In what could be a breakthrough in the worst crisis between East and West since the Cold War, Putin also announced he was pulling Russian troops back from the Ukrainian border.

NATO, the Pentagon and the White House all said they had seen no signs of a Russian pull-back from the frontier, where Moscow has massed tens of thousands of troops, proclaiming the right to invade Ukraine to protect Russian speakers.

But Putin's comment suggested that any Russian military incursion into eastern Ukraine was off the agenda for now.

"We call on the representatives of southeastern Ukraine, the supporters of the federalization of the country, to postpone the referendum planned for May 11," Putin said.

He said this would create conditions for dialogue between the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev and the separatists.

"We're always being told that our forces on the Ukrainian border are a concern. We have withdrawn them. Today they are not on the Ukrainian border, they are in places where they conduct their regular tasks on training grounds," Putin said.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a visit to Poland: "Russia should live up to its international commitments and stop supporting separatists and scale back troops from the border, so political solutions can be found."

Putin spoke in Moscow after talks with the head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who said the security and rights body would soon propose a "road map" to defuse the Ukraine crisis.

PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY

A pro-Russian separatist leader said the separatists would consider Putin's call to postpone their referendum at a meeting of their self-proclaimed People's Assembly on Thursday.

"We have the utmost respect for President Putin. If he considers that necessary, we will of course discuss it," Denis Pushilin told Reuters in Donetsk, a city of 1 million people which the rebels have proclaimed capital of an independent "People's Republic of Donetsk".

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk dismissed as "hot air" Putin's call for the referendum to be postponed.

The White House said the "illegitimate, illegal" vote should be cancelled rather than postponed.

Since a pro-Russian president was ousted in an uprising in February, Putin has overturned decades of post-Cold War diplomacy by proclaiming the right to send troops to Ukraine and seizing and annexing Crimea.

A rebellion in the east has raised the prospect that Ukraine, a country of around 45 million people the size of France, could be carved up or even descend into civil war, pitting Russian-speaking easterners against pro-European Ukrainian speakers in the West.

Residents in areas held by the pro-Moscow rebels were stunned by Putin's remarks at a time when the region seemed to be hurtling towards inevitable independence and a week of bloodshed had brought animosity towards Kiev to a fever pitch.

"Maybe Putin doesn't understand the situation? There is no way this referendum isn't happening," said Natalia Smoller, a pensioner who has been bringing food to rebels manning a roadblock in Slaviansk, a town turned into a fortified redoubt where fighters withstood a government advance this week.

Nevertheless, experts predicted the separatists would heed Putin's call to stand down for now.

"Among those confronting Ukrainian troops, a certain logic should prevail under which they understand that without the support of Russia and thereby the Russian army, they could be subjected to heavy military strikes," said Yevgeny Minchenko, a political analyst friendly to the Kremlin.

Russian share prices surged after Putin's remarks, seen as reducing the likelihood of damaging new sanctions. The MICEX index shot up 3.64 percent.

MILITARY CAMPAIGN

Ukrainian government troops have launched a military campaign to retake territory held by separatists this week. Troops briefly captured the rebel-held city hall in the eastern port of Mariupol overnight, but quickly abandoned it, leaving it back in the hands of the separatists.

Witnesses said the soldiers left after smashing furniture and office equipment. The smell of tear gas hung in the air inside the building which was largely empty in the morning, with activists in gas masks clearing debris.

Pro-Russian activists were rebuilding barricades outside the building where separatist flags flew and patriotic songs blared from loudspeakers.

In a boost for the rebels, one of their leaders, Pavel Gubarev, was released from detention in exchange for three members of the Ukrainian security services, a spokesman for the separatists' military headquarters in Slaviansk said.

The United States and European Union, which have so far imposed limited sanctions Russian individuals and small firms, have threatened to impose much wider sanctions if Moscow takes further steps to interfere in Ukraine. Sunday's planned referendum was seen as a potential trigger.

Moscow has denied Western accusations that it was orchestrating the rebellion in Ukraine's east, where Ukrainian forces have been largely unable to reassert control.

The prospect that further sanctions might be imposed on Moscow has already hurt Russia's economy indirectly by scaring investors into pulling out capital and forcing the central bank to raise interest rates to protect the ruble.

A range of European companies that do business in Russia - as diverse as Italian appliance maker Indesit, Danish brewer Carlsberg, Finnish tyre maker Nokian Tyre and Swedish cosmetics firm Oriflame, announced results on Wednesday that blamed the crisis for hurting their bottom lines.

French bank Societe General wrote down the value of its Russian arm Rosbank by $730 million, blaming the economic uncertainty caused by the Ukraine crisis.

(Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Giles Elgood)

[Lord Jim]

Putin realize he pushed this as far as it could go before causing himself irreparable damage?

Or he could just be trying to pretend that he doesn't control these Spetznaz orchestrated and manned "spontaneous uprisings" just like he did two weeks ago, when he signed on to an agreement calling on the "rebels" to lay down their arms in exchange for amnesty, (surprise surprise, they didn't...) ...


I'll start to think that the measures we're taking against Stalin Lite are moving in the right direction the day the Russian Stock Market goes down rather than up when we announce our latest action...

(When Obama announced the latest round of "sanctions", last week, the Russian Stock Market gained a point and a half in one day...)

There's something we could do right now, that would have an enormous impact on the calculations of the Russian Oligarchs, that wouldn't involve any military action, (or even military support) whatsoever...

The President could announce that he was submitting legislation to the Congress for a crash program to be able to supply natural gas from the vast reservoirs that new technologies have made available to us, to our friends in Europe...

Even though the realization of that set up might be 5-10 years away, the mere fact that the US was committed to it would have an immediate impact...

[Crackpot]

Problem is Congress has shown it is more than willing to screw the president (and themselves and us) on that sort of action.

[Crackpot]

I guess the biggest tell is if the Russian military does start moving from the border. What this does get Putin is the "opposition" a seat a the negotiation table which as long as the first happens will likely be supported by us the EU and NATO.

From the looks of it now Ukraine may have acted most skillfully showing Putin that it would force a war which shows Russia two things. The most obvious that it is obviously willing to Force Russia into a conflict at which point US EU and NATO sanctions are likely to become real (only at the point of actual conflict Obama could at least rely on the "Doves" and the "Loyal Opposition" to follow through and would only have to contend with the "Radian Neo-Isolationists") and the Damage to the Russian Economy becomes real.

The second being that it shows Putin that Ukraine isn't in the Pocket of the US, the EU, Nato etc. as non-confrontation would be the marching orders of the day from them.

It seems that Ukraine may have deftly positioned itself as the pawn that threatens the queen forcing a change of tactics by showing the current course will be too costly.

[Crackpot]

The story develops further.... Putin Plan Or have the Useful idiots break their reigns a la the tea party?

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-ukraine-reb ... ector.html

Ukraine rebels ignore Putin call to delay self-rule vote
Reuters By Matt Robinson and Gabriela Baczynska

DONETSK, Ukraine/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a public call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum on self-rule, declaring they would go ahead on Sunday with a vote that could lead to war.

The decision, which contradicted the conciliatory tone set by Putin just a day earlier, caused consternation in the West, which fears the referendum will tear Ukraine apart.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said Russia was heading down a "dangerous and irresponsible path" and the situation in Ukraine was "extremely combustible".

Denis Pushilin, a leader of the self-declared separatist Donetsk People's Republic, expressed gratitude to Putin but said the "People's Council" had voted unanimously on Thursday to hold the plebiscite as planned.

"Civil war has already begun," he told reporters. "The referendum can put a stop to it and start a political process." A man holding a Kalashnikov stood behind him.

The announcement coincided with a sharp change of tone from Moscow, which had signaled a pullback from confrontation on Wednesday with Putin's call for the vote to be delayed and a declaration that troops were withdrawing from Ukraine's border.

Russian markets sank after surging on Wednesday. In Kiev, officials promised to press on with their "anti-terrorist campaign" to retake control over the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regardless of the rebels' decision on the vote.

Political analysts said Putin may have expected the rebels to go ahead with the referendum, showing that they were not under his orders. By distancing himself from a process that will not be recognized by the West, Putin may also hope to avoid further sanctions as earlier measures begin hitting the economy.

Putin's spokesman said the Kremlin needed more information about the rebels' decision. He said the rebel statement came only after the Western-backed government in Kiev had declared it would press on with its military operation, implying that Ukraine was to blame for the rebels' refusal to heed Putin.

NATO and the United States have both said they have seen no sign of a Russian withdrawal from the frontier despite Putin's announcement he had pulled back troops.

Ukraine crisis hits banks and beerPlay VideoUkraine crisis hits banks and beer
When NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasumussen tweeted as much, the Russian Foreign Ministry tweeted back that "those with a blind eye" should read Putin's statement.

NATO has accused Moscow of using special forces in the separatist takeover of mainly Russian speaking eastern Ukraine after annexing Crimea from Ukraine in March.

Putin acknowledged his troops were active in Crimea after initially denying any role there but says they are not involved in eastern Ukraine, a densely-populated steel and coal belt responsible for roughly a third of Ukraine's industrial output.

KREMLIN SCRIPT?

Putin's unexpected call to delay the referendum, followed so quickly by the rebel decision to go ahead with it, have complicated U.S. and European efforts to agree a common policy that might lead to tighter economic sanctions on Russia.

Ukrainian military patrols Slaviansk as separatist …Play VideoUkrainian military patrols Slaviansk as separatists …
The European Union said shortly before the announcement that it was waiting to see whether Putin's words would be followed by deeds and that the plebiscite "would have no democratic legitimacy and could only further worsen the situation".

At the same time, the Russian ambassador to Paris said Putin, who had been shunned by Western leaders since the Crimean takeover, would join them in a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of the Normandy landings in World War Two.

A Western diplomat in Moscow gave voice to the view that events were still being scripted by the Kremlin.

"Taking everything into account, I am somewhat surprised with the separatists' decision. Wasn't Putin supposed to be like the pope with his dogmatic infallibility?" the diplomat said.

The referendum has become seen as a vital step by many in Ukraine's industrial east, fired up over what the rebels, and Moscow, call the "fascist" government in Kiev that took over after street protests ousted a pro-Moscow president in February.

"You have no idea how many armed people there are in Donetsk right now," Roman Lyagin, the 33-year-old head of the self-proclaimed republic's election commission, told Reuters at his headquarters behind barricades of tires and car bumpers in the occupied regional administration in Donetsk.

"There is no man who can move this referendum," he said.

Ballots, printed in Donetsk, have been distributed across the rebel zone, smuggled through Ukrainian army checkpoints. Lyagin says more than three million people are eligible to vote.

Artyom, a rebel at a roadblock in the rebel-held eastern town of Slaviansk, said of the referendum decision: "This is great news. We need to have our say."

While many Russian speakers in Ukraine fear discrimination under the new leadership, quite how many support the separatists, many of whom say their ultimate aim is to join Russia, is not so clear. Recent opinion polls say a majority wish to remain within Ukraine, but with a far greater degree of autonomy.

Putin said his call for the vote's postponement would open the way to negotiations on cooling down a crisis that has led to dozens of deaths in clashes between troops and separatists in eastern Ukraine and rival groups in the southern port of Odessa.

On Thursday he again pointed the finger at Kiev, whose "irresponsible politics" had caused the crisis.

Maria Lipman, an expert at the Carnegie Center think-tank in Moscow, said Putin would have known that his request for the referendum to be postponed would be rebuffed.

"But this can be used to show that the people in Ukraine's east are not Russians, take no orders from Russia, that Russia exercises no control over them because they only do what they want to do," she said.

"He has also distanced Russia from the referendum, which has a completely unclear status and will not be recognized by the West."

In a further shift from reconciliation, Putin oversaw test launches of military rockets during training exercises held across Russia on Thursday, the day before celebrations of the anniversary of its World War Two victory.

The West has accused Russia of using previous military exercises to build up forces along the border with Ukraine after its Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovich fled to Russia in February.

In the rebel-stronghold of Slaviansk, target of a Ukrainian military advance that began last week, self-declared mayor Vyacheslav Ponomaryov said a new offensive by Kiev was coming.

"We have enough fighters, enough weapons, the support of the people and we have our land," he said. "God is with us."

(Additional reporting by Alexandra Prentice in Slaviansk, Vladimir Soldatkin and Thomas Grove in Moscow, Lionel Laurent in Paris, Adrian Croft in Brussels; Writing by Philippa Fletcher; Editing by Peter Graff)

[Crackpot]

I imagine Putin is betting that he has control of the Opposition and that he can convince them to stop this referendum. thus making him look like both a peacemaker and draw out Ukrainian instability and win concessions through negotiation.

Ukraine really only has one option which is to escalate the situation as quickly as possible and force Putin to back off. Showing Separatists that when push comes to shove Russia will not start a war for them. The longer this goes on the more it is likely going to lose in negotiation both with Russia and the Separatists.

So at this point the as I eluded to in my previous post is just how much control does Putin have on the Opposition?

[Big RR]

I don't know, with someone like Putin on the other side, who knows how he'd respond to an deliberate escalation. And if Ukraine is seen as the aggressor, who knows what sort of international support they'd get. Ukraine might well lose something in negotiation, but here is no way they would win a military confrontation with Russia.

[Crackpot]

There isn't much they can do to be seen as aggressor. They are dealing with an unstabilizing force within their own borders that is already seen as, if not outright being, fomented by outside Governmental entity. The only way they can fuck this up is if they start deliberately attacking non-combatant civilians (which at this point would be almost impossible to prove unless they start carpet bombing their own cities.

[Lord Jim]

if Ukraine is seen as the aggressor, who knows what sort of international support they'd get.

I don't think it's possible for a country undergoing the slo-mo invasion and undermining of it's territorial integrity that Ukraine is suffering, to be seen as the "aggressor" by any country (other than maybe Putin's thug-buddies in places like Syria) when all it's doing is attempting to assert it's legitimate control over it's own territory...

I imagine Putin is betting that he has control of the Opposition and that he can convince them to stop this referendum. thus making him look like both a peacemaker and draw out Ukrainian instability and win concessions through negotiation.

I don't think Putin has to bet on his control of the separatists; I think it's clear that his control is absolute, these halfwit knuckle dragging thugs wouldn't last five minutes without the support, direction and organization provided by the highly trained Russian Special Forces in their ranks. You may be right about his intentions, but I still favor the theory that he is simply trying to make it look like he doesn't really control his stooges. Time will tell, but the one thing we can be absolutely certain of is that which ever way it goes, the referendum is held or it isn't held, it's what Putin wanted. (In a fair referendum, the Separatists would most likely lose; unlike Crimea the majority in the area in question aren't ethnic Russians, but nobody expects that a referendum held by this bunch would be remotely fair.)

here is no way they would win a military confrontation with Russia.

They don't have to. The North Vietnamese could never win a war against the US, but what they could do, (and did, and what the Ukranians can do) is make the cost to the stronger power unacceptably high.

At the moment, Putin is enjoying a huge surge in popularity in Russia by being able satisfy a deep sense among many of his countrymen of wounded national pride at zero cost. Raise the price, both economically and militarily, and that support will decay, and Putin will be weakened and have to rethink his goals.

Ukraine really only has one option which is to escalate the situation as quickly as possible and force Putin to back off

That I agree with completely....

I've said from the very beginning of this, that I don't believe Putin really wants a full-scale shooting war, with all it's costs and casualties,which would tank his support both among his oligarch pals and the Russian public. The Ukranians, by demonstrating a clear willingness to fight to defend their sovereignty, and the West, through much more robust economic measures than the pitiful response we've seen to date, can throw a one-two punch that will create the pressure needed for Putin to see this adventurism as not worth the cost.

And I have to add that I've been deeply disappointed and depressed by the US Administration's whole attitude about providing military aid to Ukraine. Every time the subject is raised they respond with the mantra, "there's no military solution to this"...

(The worst, most wrongheaded statement came from Obama himself last week, when he responded to critics of his unwillingness to provide any military aid to the Ukrainians by comparing it to the Iraq War...

I sincerely pray that the POTUS is really not foolhardy enough to fail to understand the difference between committing 200,000 US troops on the ground, backed up by hundreds of planes, tanks and missiles, and providing light arms, body armor and anti-tank weapons to a country being invaded by an authoritarian aggressor and US adversary...Please, please tell me he knows better than that..the comparison is nothing short of bizarre...)

Unfortunately at present Vladimir Putin obviously believes that there is a military solution to this, because that's what he pursuing....

Putin is the one that the Ukrainians and the West must convince there is "no military solution"...

Until that happens, our talking about there being "no military solution" just makes us look ridiculous, and probably has Vlad laughing so hard he's pissin' his pants...

[Rick]

The French are selling him some boats

[Gob]

THE Ukraine and Russia are to give each other maximum points in the Eurovision song contest despite basically being at war.

In a private call, Vladimir Putin and acting Ukrainian President Olensandr Turchynov assured one another that whatever massive bloodshed might ensue, the ‘twelve point protocol’ would not be breached.

Turchynov said: “We deplore covert Russian efforts to annex our nation, but we just love Russia’s Tolmachevy Sisters and their bouncy entry Shine, with its uplifting message that we are all as bright as light bulbs.”



Putin said: “I cannot rule out using nuclear weapons against the Ukraine, but there is no question of us not awarding ‘douze points’ to Ukraine’s Maria Yaremchuk and her perky ditty Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock.



“I mean come on, it’s so catchy and just makes you move your hips.”

International military analyst Julian Cook said: “It is important to understand the East European mentality in these matters. When it comes to doing down the arrogant United Kingdom, they are united.

“They piss from on high on your Engelbert Humperdinck. They shit in the mouth of your Bonnie Tyler.”

(May not be from a reputable news source.)

[Crackpot]

I don't think Putin has to bet on his control of the separatists; I think it's clear that his control is absolute, these halfwit knuckle dragging thugs wouldn't last five minutes without the support, direction and organization provided by the highly trained Russian Special Forces in their ranks. You may be right about his intentions, but I still favor the theory that he is simply trying to make it look like he doesn't really control his stooges. Time will tell, but the one thing we can be absolutely certain of is that which ever way it goes, the referendum is held or it isn't held, it's what Putin wanted. (In a fair referendum, the Separatists would most likely lose; unlike Crimea the majority in the area in question aren't ethnic Russians, but nobody expects that a referendum held by this bunch would be remotely fair.)

The same had been said about the Tea Party. Never underestimate the ability of "true believers" to royally fuck up your plans especially when your agenda stops short of theirs.

And I have to add that I've been deeply disappointed and depressed by the US Administration's whole attitude about providing military aid to Ukraine. Every time the subject is raised they respond with the mantra, "there's no military solution to this"...

To tell you the Truth I think he's right (at least to this point). it is actually in Ukraines favor that they act on (more or less) its own. the more active saber rattling we do allows Putin to scapegoat the west if things go south for him. Not to mention doing so now will not fly with the EU, NATO, and the aforementioned "Doves", "Loyal Opposition" and Randian Neo-Isolationists (that one doesn't need quotes) that is until civil war becomes inevitable. because at that point it goes from "Preventative Military Action" which for the reasons outlined above there is no solution for; to a civil/regional war and huge unstabilizing force in the in the region that militarily can't be ignored by any moderatly rational group.

I sincerely pray that the POTUS is really not foolhardy enough to fail to understand the difference between committing 200,000 US troops on the ground, backed up by hundreds of planes, tanks and missiles, and providing light arms, body armor and anti-tank weapons to a country being invaded by an authoritarian aggressor and US adversary...Please, please tell me he knows better than that..the comparison is nothing short of bizarre...)

Even that relies upon a reality where invasion is occurring.

Unfortunately at present Vladimir Putin obviously believes that there is a military solution to this, because that's what he pursuing....

That is where you and I really start to differ. He knows there is no military solution to this at least so far as active Russian Military is involved. AT worst he sees this playing out as a Proxy War a la the cold war where he and the west covertly supply their respective side. But I tend to think he's too smart for that because one wrong move or one captured middleman with the right names and he will lose all (all being control of Russia)

I tend to thing he's approaching his endgame and we sill soon be seeing the payoff of his calculations.

One the vote goes on the opposition wins: He backs it see proxy war scenario.

Two the vote goes on the Opposition loses: He's up shits creek because it's not a scenario he or (we for that matter) really think is going to happen. I only list it because if my understanding of events over there and the actual question on the ballot is asked how sentiment actually ls over there is correct. the question might be just wrong enough to blow up in Putins face. Let me explain If I read/heard correctly the referendum asks about leaving Ukraine and joining Russia. Most don't want to do that. They do want greater autonomy from the Ukrainian central Govt. But that is not the question on that ballot. Meaning it's just possible when push comes to shove they might choose the devil they know.

Third (this is the outcome I see most likely Putin sweeps in at the last possible moment with a halt to the referendum with a few diplomatic caveats (possibly the semiautonomous regions mentioned earlier) This is Putins Win-Win he maintains a buffer zone, further weakens Ukraine and looks like a global power player. On top of that it's probably a solution everyone but Ukraine will be happy with. And he get his one personal Wet Dream where he as a mini cold War with Ukraine playing the Part of Germany

Fourth The Opposition Goes Tea party on Him hold the referendum and win or lose starts a civil War. This is like Putins Lose-Lose in that he's stuck with a war he didn't want. Got shown up by those he was meant to be controlling and then had to decide which unpalatable option he wants to chose is:

a. Leave the opposition to what will likely be a western aided slaugher and hope there is some place he can save some face when it's time to negotiate surrender.

b. Aid it and quite probably lose the whole ball of wax while and quite possibly becoming the second incarnation of Stalin as he slowly loses power.

[Big RR]

The worst, most wrongheaded statement came from Obama himself last week, when he responded to critics of his unwillingness to provide any military aid to the Ukrainians by comparing it to the Iraq War

Jim--do you have a link for that? As I recall, Obama only compared the conflict to Iraq to say that they are NOT alike; that the US worked with the international community before it committed troops (and a number of other differences), while Russia is doing the opposite. This was said to deflect the claims that the west (and America especially) was behaving hypocritically when criticizing Russia for doing pretty much the same thing we did in invading Iraq on a pretext.

I can't find any quotes where he said it was the same or similar.

[Lord Jim]

Typically, criticism of our foreign policy has been directed at the failure to use military force. And the question I think I would have is: why is it that everybody is so eager to use military force after we've just gone through a decade of war at enormous costs to our troops and to our budget?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-frustrate ... s-critics/

That certainly looks to me like he's making that comparison. It's a false choice and a strawman; nobody is proposing the use of US military force in Ukraine.

Later in that same press briefing he acknowledges this, but still shows a deep misunderstanding of the situation:

In Ukraine, he said, he has led the international community in isolating Russia, but again, there is no appetite to put U.S. boots on the ground.[which again of course, no one has advocated.]

"Well, what else should we be doing?" the president asked. "Well, we shouldn't be putting troops in, the critics will say. That's not what we mean. Well, okay, what are you saying? Well, we should be arming the Ukrainians more. Do people actually think that somehow us sending some additional arms into Ukraine could potentially deter the Russian army?[as part of conveying the impression that the Ukrainians are prepared to fight and exact a steep price from the Russians if they invade? Absolutely, you betcha.] Or are we more likely to deter them by applying the sort of international pressure, diplomatic pressure and economic pressure that we're applying?" [Another false choice; it's not the sort of "either or" that Obama presents; we should start doing the former and do a whole lot more than we're doing now of the latter.]

This seems like it's becoming an unfortunate pattern with this Administration when it comes to foreign crisis; drawing false choices between their own foot dragging and minimalist responses and the most extreme responses imaginable, which no one is proposing, (they waved the bloody shirt of the "boots on the ground" false alternative over Syria too.) as though these were the only options.

ETA:

There are a broad range of options and a menu of policy choices available to us between a navel gazing, thumb sucking approach, and "boots on the ground"...

It's disingenuous and dishonest to pretend otherwise...

[Lord Jim]

Leave the opposition to what will likely be a western aided slaugher and hope there is some place he can save some face when it's time to negotiate surrender.

I have to take issue with that...

There's no indication whatsoever that the interim government in Kiev is interested in pursuing a "slaughter"...

In fact they have signed on to a very generous deal, offering full amnesty to the thugs currently occupying their government buildings if they lay down their arms and end their occupation...

If Putin really wants to stand down from this false crisis he has created, he can withdraw his Spetznaz forces from Eastern Ukraine and leave these undisciplined bar room brawlers to their own devices....

Then the Ukrainian Army will surround them while letting them contemplate the wisdom of accepting the amnesty offer with the electricity and water turned off...

If Putin has his forces withdraw, the "separatist movement" will fold like a cheap lawn chair, without any "slaughter"...

[Crackpot]

Again you assume a choice. If the opposition will not fold and is not being backed what do you end up with?

[Lord Jim]

If the opposition will not fold and is not being backed what do you end up with?

Well, you wind up with a fanciful hypothetical, and a false assumption, because the "opposition" will fold if it's not being backed...

There is no simmering, pro-Moscow under current of resentment towards the Ukrainian government supported by the population in this region of Ukraine that Putin has tapped into...

What's going on here is completely manufactured; Russian Special Forces coordinating with what amount to no more than motorcycle gangs...a handful of thugs...

If the support is withdrawn they will collapse in short order...

[Crackpot]

no doubt they'll collapse but to could be quite bloody remember these guys have captured enough arms already to make it messy.

[Lord Jim]

Well we're now just hours away, so apparently they intend to go forward with this charade...

In the "referendum" that was held in Crimea, there was no secret ballot; you had to fill out your vote with a thug or soldier looking over your shoulder...

I expect the process will be quite similar here...