Presumably, by distinguishing "speculation" from "fact-based analysis," NPR was relying on the ordinary definition of "speculate": "form a theory or opinion without firm evidence". (
Compact Oxford English Dictionary at p. 996.)
Your predictions about the House and Senate appear to be based on polling data. Polling data strike me as "firm evidence" (which, of course, does not mean "conclusive evidence") of how the races are shaping up at the moment. And -- at least when we are only nine days away from the election -- "firm evidence" of how the races are shaping up at the moment strikes me as "firm evidence" of how they will turn out. Hardly mere "speculation".
Anyway, I don't see how the statement for which Williams was fired counts as either "speculation" or "fact-based analysis". He made a statement about his own personal attitude as a traveler on commercial airplanes. I don't see how that is "form[ing] a theory or opinion" at all, with or without "firm evidence". Rather, this bit:
NPR journalists should not express views they would not air in their role as an NPR journalist.
seems the applicable part.
Anyway again, NPR's CEO, Vivian Schiller, has said that Williams was fired for violating NPR's code of ethics. What
loCAtek quoted is only a small part of NPR's code of ethics. NPR's code of ethics also includes a provision prohibiting NPR's journalists' "participation in some political debates and forums where the sponsoring group(s) or other participants are identified with a particular perspective on an issue or issues ...."
Williams made his comments on Fox's "The O'Reilly Factor". Whatever one may think of Fox's news reporting, it seems to me undeniable that Bill O'Reilly is "identified with a particular perspective on [a host of] issues".
That may explain why NPR has not fired Nina Totenberg. I don't think that
Inside Washington is identified with a particular perspective: The regular panelists include Charles Krauthammer, and the host (Gordon Peterson) rarely expresses opinions on anything.
(I still don't get the whole "punditry" thing, though. [/i]The Collins English Dictionary[/i], via dictionary.com., defines it as "the expressing of expert opinions". How that fits into NPR's code of ethics is mysterious to me.)
Reason is valuable only when it performs against the wordless physical background of the universe.