The question came up in a different thread but I thought it deserved more direct attention than that.
"What do the Chinese Leadership want?"
We have seen the record of the past 30 years when they have annexed Hongkong with amazingly little disruption to the economic and social life of that colony and they have gradually liberalized their economy without loosening controls over the powers of the state and the press with a steady improvement in std of living, freedom to travel, infrastructure &c. So the interesting question is: "what do they intend next?" Do they intend to gradually democratize Chinese society? DO they see a future where matters of policy are given to the populace to determine or do they see an authoritarian future with a class of relatively benign despots who wield all real power in the country?
And how can we contrast the example of India to China?
My personal experience with a lot of scientists from both cultures (and some of the Chinese are still in Shanghai) is that Indian scientists are far more honest and creative.
yrs,
rubato
What do the Chinese Leadership want?
Re: What do the Chinese Leadership want?
Pure anecdote:
I can recall walking through a college at UC Santa Cruz one night in the middle 80s. There was a 20-something Chinese woman who was crying her eyes out. As we worked through the language differences it came out that she was a graduate student from mainland China and that she had married just weeks before she left. She knew that the Chinese government of that time would never allow her husband to leave the country until she returned so her future for 4 years was one of being separated from her love for reasons of brute political control of society.
That is contrasted with the current level of control over society there, not so brutal but just as total.
I can recall walking through a college at UC Santa Cruz one night in the middle 80s. There was a 20-something Chinese woman who was crying her eyes out. As we worked through the language differences it came out that she was a graduate student from mainland China and that she had married just weeks before she left. She knew that the Chinese government of that time would never allow her husband to leave the country until she returned so her future for 4 years was one of being separated from her love for reasons of brute political control of society.
That is contrasted with the current level of control over society there, not so brutal but just as total.
Re: What do the Chinese Leadership want?
Annexed 
The Sino-British Joint Declaration was signed by the Prime Ministers of the People's Republic of China and the United Kingdom governments on 19 December 1984 in Beijing.
...
In accordance with the One Country, Two Systems principle agreed between the UK and the PRC, the socialist system of PRC would not be practiced in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), and Hong Kong's previous capitalist system and its way of life would remain unchanged for a period of 50 years. The Joint Declaration provides that these basic policies shall be stipulated in the Hong Kong Basic Law.
Re: What do the Chinese Leadership want?
One thing we know for certain is that the Chinese leadership is a very stabile group over very long periods of time. Understanding their intentions is central to planning trade policy which is strategic and not a series of knee-jerk reactions; one suspects that the Chinese can easily manipulate the latter to their advantage. If we want a strategic approach to trade which protects us and the rest of our trading partners from IP theft and poisonous, or otherwise lethal, counterfeit goods then we should plan, like adults, rather than react like emotionally uncontrolled children.
I'm surprised that understanding this is of so little interest.
yrs,
rubato
I'm surprised that understanding this is of so little interest.
yrs,
rubato
Re: What do the Chinese Leadership want?
Another reason to ask the question is revealed in the recent stories about the 'rare earth metals' market. Chinese producers undercut everyone else by so much that they all went out of business a while back. Now there is a critical shortage in the global market and <<miraculoso!!>> the Chinese are cutting off people they don't like politically.
This ought to reveal the fact that they are very happy to play a long game to get a hardball advantage and then use it for strategic advantage; but what is the strategy? Attack the economies of people that don't support their other interests? What are their other interests?
It is worth asking the question rather than the usual serial knee-jerk reactions we get on a monthly basis. They are playing a long and deliberate game and the knee-jerkers are playing right into their hands.
yrs,
rubato
This ought to reveal the fact that they are very happy to play a long game to get a hardball advantage and then use it for strategic advantage; but what is the strategy? Attack the economies of people that don't support their other interests? What are their other interests?
It is worth asking the question rather than the usual serial knee-jerk reactions we get on a monthly basis. They are playing a long and deliberate game and the knee-jerkers are playing right into their hands.
yrs,
rubato
Re: What do the Chinese Leadership want?
Is there some way we can tell what they value based on their record of the past 20 years?
How would they rank the importance of:
Keeping and increasing their level of personal power (the Putin way).
Economic growth for China (GDP at all costs).
Economic growth for the population of China (rising std of living at all costs).
Geopolitical power (gain the military and economic means to compel others to do what they want).
Equitable std of living (the growing gap between urban and rural income will be a focus of effort).
Status, this is harder to describe because what is desierable to 'appear as' for one is so different from another. But to a great degree the Beijing Olympics and their nascent space program are expressions of ego.
Chinese Nationalism: sacrifice all to the glory of the growing state of China.
yrs,
rubato
How would they rank the importance of:
Keeping and increasing their level of personal power (the Putin way).
Economic growth for China (GDP at all costs).
Economic growth for the population of China (rising std of living at all costs).
Geopolitical power (gain the military and economic means to compel others to do what they want).
Equitable std of living (the growing gap between urban and rural income will be a focus of effort).
Status, this is harder to describe because what is desierable to 'appear as' for one is so different from another. But to a great degree the Beijing Olympics and their nascent space program are expressions of ego.
Chinese Nationalism: sacrifice all to the glory of the growing state of China.
yrs,
rubato