OH-12 special election

[Scooter]

Real time results

With 11% reporting, Democrat Danny O'Connor leads Republican Troy Balderson by 15 points, in a race that is expected to be close.

[Scooter]

Whoa, has really tightened up. O'Connor 50.1% Balderson 49.3% with 74% reporting.

[Lord Jim]

Looks like it's all going to come down to the vote in Delaware County, which is coming in slowly at this point...(24% counted in the county; 66% overall) and Franklin county

Two bright spots right now for O'Connor...

He's holding his own in Delaware County, (he's only behind by a few 100 votes with 24% counted; Trump carried the county by 16 points and Romney carried it by 23) and there's still about 35% of the vote left to be counted in Franklin County, the most vote rich area of the district, where O'Connor is running up 2-1 margin...

It's down to about a 2000 vote difference...

[Scooter]

Just for some perspective, the GOP carried this district by 36 points in 2016. If Republican districts that safe then are this vulnerable now...

[Lord Jim]

Trump carried the district by 11...

It's looking now like it might be close but no cigar here for the Dems; there's only about 12% of Franklin County precincts left to count while 61% is left in Delaware...

Down to about a 500 vote margin for O'Connor....

[Scooter]

It will be a shame if the Green candidate turns into a spoiler.

[Lord Jim]

That's very possible...

With 85% of the vote counted O'Connor's lead is down to about 150 votes and the Green candidate is pulling a little over 1000...

[Lord Jim]

What's really going to suck about a razor thin Democratic defeat in this race (which is what it's looking like it's going to be) isn't that it portends anything bad for their prospects of retaking the House, (there are 80 GOP held seats Trump lost or carried by a lesser margin) but that we're going to have to listen to Il Boobce claiming that his late appearance in the District "rescued" the Republican candidate and thus he is responsible for the victory...

[Lord Jim]

99% of the precincts are counted, and Balderson leads by 1688 votes...

But none of the news channels are calling the race, because too much is still unknown about the uncounted absentee and provisional ballots...

[Scooter]

8400 absentees and provisionals, so we'll see what tomorrow brings.

But there's got to be more than a few Republicans dirtying their pants when a district that hasn't gone Democratic since Reagan was president can be this close.

[Lord Jim]

Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump

When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. [Actually, the polls had Balderson 1-2 points ahead overall including early voting before Trump's trip, and currently he leads by just under a point...But of course The Donald has never been one to let the truth get in the way of a self-congratulatory narrative...]That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting. He will win BIG in Nov.
7:59 PM - Aug 7, 2018

[Bicycle Bill]

LJ, Scooter — thanks for the updates.  Things have gotten pretty bad when I believe postings by a casual acquaintance on a BBS (although LJ and I have been trading viewpoints for over twenty years now, ever since I first popped up on the CarTalk BBS) are more factual and accurate than the TV news channels or the POTUS himself.

One thing though .... What was the turnout percentage?  How many people showed up to vote as opposed to the number of eligible voters in this district?

Secondly, doesn't this district include that part of Columbus that contains the OSU campus and surrounding environs?  If so, and with the fall semester not yet started, I imagine that there are/were a lot of students who would be considered "registered voters" — and who would probably be leaning pro-Democrat — that weren't there to vote.

-"BB"-

[Scooter]

Looks to be about 210,000 votes cast as compared to 221,000 in 2014 midterms, so probably more than the typical special election.