Brexit On The Brink...

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Lord Jim wrote:

From the EU leadership perspective, their primary vested interest is in seeing that all other member countries are discouraged from doing what Britain is attempting to do, so one of two outcomes works for them:

A.Britain leaves the the EU and falls on its face economically.

B. Britain finds it too complicated and politically agonizing to find a way to ever leave the EU, and therefore stays in either through endless "extensions" for exit, or ultimately a second referendum.

Either of those two scenarios works fine from the EU perspective because both would have the effect of discouraging other countries from trying the Brexit route.

The one scenario they do not want is "Britain leaves the EU on terms that leave it doing well economically, thank you very much"...
Nailed it.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Theresa May has written to the EU seeking a brief delay to Brexit until the end of June, telling MPs that a longer delay would mean “a failure to deliver” on the result of the 2016 referendum.

Speaking at the start of prime minister’s questions, May said she would present her Brexit plan to the Commons for a third time, and if it was passed the delay would give time to implement it. If it was again defeated, parliament would have to decide how to proceed, May said.

As she spoke, No 10 released the text of her letter to Donald Tusk, the European council president, formally seeking the delay, saying only that the time would allow her to ask the Commons again about her plan. It does not specify what would happen if the vote was lost.

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Crackpot
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Crackpot »

Isn’t the Bristish way of dealing with these type of things to either ubruptly leave with no real plan in place or say you’re leaving but don’t and slowly let your influence dwindle to irrelevancy?

I don’t know what all the fuss is about. Either way Brexit seems right on track.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Crackpot wrote:Isn’t the Bristish way of dealing with these type of things to either ubruptly leave with no real plan in place or say you’re leaving but don’t and slowly let your influence dwindle to irrelevancy?

I don’t know what all the fuss is about. Either way Brexit seems right on track.
A good empirical point
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Scooter
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Scooter »

Gob wrote:
Lord Jim wrote:

From the EU leadership perspective, their primary vested interest is in seeing that all other member countries are discouraged from doing what Britain is attempting to do, so one of two outcomes works for them:

A.Britain leaves the the EU and falls on its face economically.

B. Britain finds it too complicated and politically agonizing to find a way to ever leave the EU, and therefore stays in either through endless "extensions" for exit, or ultimately a second referendum.

Either of those two scenarios works fine from the EU perspective because both would have the effect of discouraging other countries from trying the Brexit route.

The one scenario they do not want is "Britain leaves the EU on terms that leave it doing well economically, thank you very much"...
Nailed it.
And the EU should facilitate a successful exit when the UK has proven itself incapable of getting its own house in order on the matter, why, exactly?
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Big RR
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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they should do so ifit is in the interest of the EU, and given the size of UK as a trading partner, I think this is pretty likely that a stable exit and continuing relationship is in the interest of the EU as well as the UK. Two kids carping at each other is not better than one, regardless of who started it--someone has to act like the adult.

That being said, I heard about the guy who named his cat brexit; the cat stands and cries at the door to go out, but when the door is opened, it just stands there and does not leave.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by BoSoxGal »

Cats are also notorious for wanting right back in the minute they're been let out. Time will tell . . .
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Scooter wrote: And the EU should facilitate a successful exit when the UK has proven itself incapable of getting its own house in order on the matter, why, exactly?
The EU should not "facilitate a successful" anything.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Scooter
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Scooter »

Big RR wrote:they should do so ifit is in the interest of the EU, and given the size of UK as a trading partner, I think this is pretty likely that a stable exit and continuing relationship is in the interest of the EU as well as the UK. Two kids carping at each other is not better than one, regardless of who started it--someone has to act like the adult.
It cannot be in the interest of the EU to grant extensions three months at a time, without any assurance that a resolution can be reached within that timeframe. That is the sort of uncertainty that can strangle economies.
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Econoline
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Econoline »

I read an interesting analysis of the situation by Paul Krugman a few weeks ago (I'll see if I can find it) in which he predicted that a "no-deal" Brexit would be disastrous for both the UK and the EU in the short term—but in the long term it would be MUCH worse for the EU than for the UK.

That said, I think the only real solution at this point is to admit that the original referendum was flawed: it offered only two choices*. whereas at this point there are AT LEAST three distinct possibilities (negotiated exit, "no-deal" exit, and remain—and these three could easily be further divided into many more choices). Ideally, there should be a ranked-choice vote to counter this problem; it's worked in Australia for years, it worked in Maine in 2018, and I hope it catches on more generally in time for the 2020 Presidential primaries.

Gob and many other supporters of a "no-deal" Brexit may say that that's what the majority of voters intended, but it's far from clear how much real evidence there is to support this assertion. If "no-deal" was really the intended outcome. it would have been clear to the government that that's what they should have been planning for and that they should put no effort at all into negotiating with the EU.



* one of which was backed by Russian propaganda...but that's a whole 'nother kettle of red herrings...
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

I'd love to see a second referendum which I think would result in a remain vote , 60-40 or better. The reason is that unlike a general election (US or UK), if the winning candidate lies his way into office, there is at least an opportunity to throw the bastard out on 4 or 5 years. There is no such opportunity with a binary one-time vote: and it's clear to me that the Brexit crew (Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage in particular) lied and lied their way to victory.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by BoSoxGal »

I urge people to check out Brexitannia, in which it’s clear how much many exit voters were misled by false propaganda to vote as they did. I agree that it’s likely a new referendum would with a wider margin be in favor of remaining- and I can’t fathom the argument against another referendum. How does more democracy hurt democracy?

Also, how will it be when the UK leaves the EU, and then Northern Ireland and Scotland leave the UK? Will Wales stick it out?
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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

in the long term it would be MUCH worse for the EU than for the UK.
That would be interesting...

That means that Krugman is actually deviating from liberal orthodox thinking (which holds as an unassailable given that the big loser from Brexit is the UK) something which I have never ever seen him do before...
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:I'd love to see a second referendum which I think would result in a remain vote , 60-40 or better. The reason is that unlike a general election (US or UK), if the winning candidate lies his way into office, there is at least an opportunity to throw the bastard out on 4 or 5 years. There is no such opportunity with a binary one-time vote: and it's clear to me that the Brexit crew (Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage in particular) lied and lied their way to victory.

And if "remain" win that one, a draw, one all, do we go for best of three?
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

When you have that kind of persistent division within the electorate, the only way to break the logjam is for the politicians to step up and demonstrate political courage...
That reminded me of an exchange from Yes, Minister where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard that if you really want a politician not to do something tell him that doing so would be "courageous":
Sir Humphrey: If you want to be really sure that the Minister doesn't accept it, you must say the decision is "courageous".

Bernard: And that's worse than "controversial"?

Sir Humphrey: Oh, yes! "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election"!
Last edited by Lord Jim on Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Love that show!!
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

As I mentioned earlier, the polling continues to show the electorate split right down the middle, (though anyone who has been getting their info about this exclusively from US mainstream media coverage could be forgiven for thinking that UK public opinion must now be overwhelmingly pro-remain, since that's the way the coverage makes it appear. Like their brethren in most of the British mainstream press, the journalists involved have been overwhelmingly anti-Brexiit from the beginning.) and it's impossible to predict what the outcome of a second referendum would be with so close a split. (The polls at the end of the last referendum campaign had Remain winning narrowly when of course in the event the opposite happened.)
Britain split over prospect of second Brexit vote, poll finds

Sat 16 Mar 2019 14.30 EDT

Exactly the same proportion of voters believe there should be a second referendum on Brexit as think the UK should leave the EU without a deal, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The survey shows the country split down the middle, with 43% supporting a delay to Brexit in order to hold a second public vote and 43% believing the UK should simply quit without any agreement with Brussels.

If a second referendum were held with the options of accepting Theresa May’s deal or remaining in the EU on the ballot paper, 46% said they would back remain, against 36% who would vote to leave on the terms of the prime minister’s proposal.

The poll comes after a dramatic week of voting in parliament when the prime minister’s deal was rejected for a second time, by 149 votes. MPs also voted to rule out no-deal and to extend article 50 by at least three months.
Brexit: what could happen next
Read more

The figures will encourage remain supporters ahead of a mass demonstration and march in favour of a second referendum that will take place in London on Saturday 23 March.

Despite the government’s troubles over Brexit, and cabinet splits on the issue, the Conservatives (on 38%) hold a four-point lead over Labour (34%) with the Liberal Democrats and Ukip both on 8%.

May’s ratings on her handling of Brexit remain dire (-30%, when the proportion who disapprove of her handling of it – 56% – is subtracted from the proportion who approve – 26%).

But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn fares even worse with a net rating of -46 (62% disapprove, against 16% who approve).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... referendum

That bit I high-lighted at the end shows how the Tories aren't the only ones caught in an internal political crisis...

As disliked as she is, and as badly as she has blundered around, the May-led Conservatives still consistently lead the Corbyn led Labourites in the polls...

And May still remains consistently more personally popular (or more precisely, more personally less unpopular) than Corbyn...

Brexit may be tying the Conservative Party in knots and creating bitter internal divisions, but the Labour Party seems determined to do everything they can to keep them in power...

Labour adopted Party leadership selection rules that give the hardcore rank and file leftists in the party the final say on who the Party leader is, rather than the Labour MPs...

That bunch of reds love Corbyn, and are completely disinterested in the fact that he cannot possibly lead the party to victory in a national election, no matter how badly the Tories fuck up...(the indisputable proof of this is that while it's hard to imagine them fucking up any worse than they have with their handling of Brexit, they still lead Labour)

The situation is very analogous to the one that it existed in the 1980s, when in it's infinite wisdom the Labour Party adopted leadership selection rules that gave a huge say to left-wing Labour Union leaders...

The result was a series of Labour Party Leaders so far to the left that they could never beat Thacher...

One might think that this combination of a deeply divided Conservative Party and a Labour Party saddled with an un-electable leader they can't get rid of, might create a huge opportunity for a major Liberal Party resurgence, but at least so far the polls don't indicate that the Liberal Party leadership has been deft and shrewd enought to figure out a message that could effectively exploit the situation...

There is a nascent new movement within the parliament called "The Independent Group" made up of a small number of centrist Conservative and Labour MPs, but there's no indication that it is getting much traction yet with the public either:
The walkouts began on Monday with seven Labour MPs, who announced in a press conference their decision to resign en masse and sit as a new group of independents, citing their frustration with the party’s lack of leadership on Brexit and its failure to tackle anti-Semitism within its ranks. By Wednesday, the “gang of seven” became 11, as another Labour lawmaker and three Conservatives joined the so-called Independent Group. Not since the founding of the Social Democratic Party here in the 1980s has either party experienced so many defections.

And yet, when British lawmakers gathered in the House of Commons on Wednesday for their weekly questions to the prime minister, everyone avoided the elephant in the room: that Labour and the Tories have lost nearly a dozen lawmakers between them at a time when—with Brexit only weeks away—they arguably need them the most.

But what the fledgling group of lawmakers lacked in any formal acknowledgment from either the Conservative or Labour leadership, they made up for in size. Though not a formal party, in a matter of days they have become the fourth-largest grouping in Parliament, larger than the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (which props up Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government) and equal to that of the Liberal Democrats.

Few things unite this group of Labour and Conservative defectors. Their views run the gamut, from when to end austerity to whether to nationalize the railways. But on their reasons for leaving their parties, they are somewhat in agreement. For one, both sides are frustrated by what they see as a hard-line takeover of their former parties, from the far-left loyalists of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to the outsize influence of the hard-line pro-Brexit lawmakers within the Conservatives. All 11 argue that it is not their values, but rather those of their parties, that have changed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... it/583168/
Last edited by Lord Jim on Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Big RR
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Big RR »

Scooter wrote:
Big RR wrote:they should do so ifit is in the interest of the EU, and given the size of UK as a trading partner, I think this is pretty likely that a stable exit and continuing relationship is in the interest of the EU as well as the UK. Two kids carping at each other is not better than one, regardless of who started it--someone has to act like the adult.
It cannot be in the interest of the EU to grant extensions three months at a time, without any assurance that a resolution can be reached within that timeframe. That is the sort of uncertainty that can strangle economies.
Perhaps, but then I still maintain it is also not in the interest of the EU to let the UK withdraw with no trade or other issues resolved. The question is which would be worse? I'm betting the latter, at least. in the short term.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by BoSoxGal »

No responses to my question, so I’ll pose it again.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, and both are talking of independence from the UK upon Brexit. Wales votes to leave, but sentiment is high for independence from the UK.

Is the end of the United Kingdom within sight?
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dales
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by dales »

Is the end of the United Kingdom within sight?

Just off of "Land's End" in Cornwall however I believe that the coastline is still visible.

Your collective inability to acknowledge this obvious truth makes you all look like fools.


yrs,
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