Have you been watching Egypt?!?!?!

[Sue U]

I pray for the people of Egypt, that they have won the first step toward a democracy. About time for the cradle of civilization.

Hey, I thought the "cradle of civilization" was Iraq (f/k/a Mesopotmia). Thank goodness we already brought them democracy the right way! (600,000 or so dead and $3 trillion + in financial costs.)

[Long Run]

Query: Is there a connection between Tunisia/Egypt/Next Deposed Arab Thug, and the overthrow of Sadaam and growing likelihood that Iraq will have some type of successful democracy? We all know the high cost of the Iraq War II, but are these revolts one positive that came out of that situation? Haven't heard this question asked yet and we won't know if there is a connection for years.

[BoSoxGal]

I think the span of the cradle is a subject of some debate amongst historians. Obviously, the area now known as Iraq is included.

In any case, Egypt is one of the oldest civilizations on the planet. I am very glad that they are moving toward democracy without the jack-booted influence of the US.

[Sue U]

Query: Is there a connection between Tunisia/Egypt/Next Deposed Arab Thug, and the overthrow of Sadaam and growing likelihood that Iraq will have some type of successful democracy? We all know the high cost of the Iraq War II, but are these revolts one positive that came out of that situation? Haven't heard this question asked yet and we won't know if there is a connection for years.

I think just the opposite. If anything, the Iraq experience demonstrated conclusively that a popular uprising against an autocrat will have to go it alone -- despite lip service from Western democracies -- and runs the risk of brutal backlash. Which of course is exactly what happened in Iraq after Gulf War I. Even moreso in Egypt, because there is slim to no chance that there would be any actual material American support for an insurgency against an ally government, regardless of any theoretical pro-democracy sentiment. (And if I were anywhere in the Arab world, I sure as hell wouldn't want the US to bring democracy to my country like they did to Iraq.)

Moreover, Egypt is simply not Iraq: its political and social culture are radically different. For one, the Egyptian Army occupies a much different place in society than the Iraqi Army did, and it was never used as a force to oppress and murder its own people. There are no breakaway regions in Egypt (a la Kurdistan in Iraq) nor are there large indigenous minority populations with historic grievances (like the Iraqi Shia). Egypt has not been particularly threatened by Iran or any other neighboring/regional power, nor does it have territorial designs. The economic problems of Egypt that fueled this uprising have been cascading over decades.

I think it is unlikely at best that the events in Egypt will result in similar movements elsewhere; a political preference for "democracy" alone is not a particularly powerful motivator where people are otherwise reasonably satisifed with simply getting on with their day-to-day lives.

[Lord Jim]

Well, I guess Hosni finally sobered up and looked out the window....

Congratulations to the people of Egypt...

I have to say that it really made for truly riveting television; watching the drama of a popular uprising and the responses of the regime with all the various twists and turns in real time....

It's a shame that something similar to this can't take place in Iran or Syria. The most important thing one needs to have a movement like this succeed is to have a military that won't massacre the people of it's country... In Iran and Syria the military has no compunction about that.

It also helps if the dictator is susceptible to western pressure, and if the society is at least open enough that the media can get some access. (You may recall that when this was attempted in Iran, the first thing the government did was confine all the journalists to their hotels)

[oldr_n_wsr]

and if the society is at least open enough that the media can get some access.

Didn't Mubarak try and shut down cell phones and internet? Guess it didn't work.

[Lord Jim]

Yes he did, and for a while he had his thugs roughing up reporters and breaking equipment, trying to intimidate them....this is another way in which his susceptibility to western pressure helped; he never tried to enforce the official large scale suppression of foreign journalists that Iran carried out.

I think the pivotal moment really came that day after the first mass protest when Mubarak sent in his horse and camel riding whip wielding goon squads to try and beat the people back into submission. If they hadn't held their ground that night, and ultimately driven off the bully boys, this outcome would never have been achieved.

Mubarak tried one cynical ploy after another, including trying to foment the chaos that he claimed only he could prevent, but the crowds refused to be baited into becoming a rioting mob.

Like the overthrow of Marcos, there were two key elements; the courage and discipline of the people in the streets, and the decency and professionalism of a military that refused to be used as a tool for the mass murder of their countrymen.

[Gob]

Muabarak quits, finally. (Will he be called the Sarah Palin of Egypt?)

Only after you've elected her and let her run the USA for 8 years. Now that's going to be an event worth watching

[Lord Jim]

Only after you've elected her and let her run the USA for 8 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbY9ePeb ... re=related

[BoSoxGal]

Didn't the people of Iran recently attempt a similar uprising? As I recall, it was crushed by the regime in power.

[loCAtek]