2020 Senate polls and projections

[Scooter]

Electoral-vote.com has opened their Senate polling page, and the news isn't good for a number of Republicans. Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, Steve Daines, Susan Collins and Thom Tillis all look to be in a spot of trouble, and Joni Ernst may be as well. On the Democratic side, Doug Jones is a dead man walking, but that is the only likely flip.

Democratic 51
Republican 49

[Lord Jim]

Oh, how I would dearly LOVE to see the Quisling Graham go down; a big enough blue wave could do it:

What the Polls Say About a Lindsey Graham vs Jaime Harrison South Carolina Senate Race

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham could face a tougher re-election campaign than previously thought against Democrat Jaime Harrison.

Graham, who safely won his last Senate race by roughly 15 points in 2014, is only slightly ahead in the latest polls. Harrison, the first black chairman of the state's Democratic Party, joined the race in 2019 and is currently running unopposed for the party's nod.

Polls conducted earlier this year found Graham way ahead of Harrison. A Marist College survey from late February had the Republican up by 17 percentage points, as 54 percent of registered voters said they'd back him for another term. Just 37 percent of respondents said they'd vote for Harrison.

But the latest surveys and election forecasts paint a different picture. A poll from late March showed Graham's lead had dwindled to 4 points. Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they'd back Graham at the ballot box compared with 43 percent who would vote for Harrison.

The poll, conducted by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies, also found Graham's approval rating to be underwater as 45 percent of voters approve of the job the Republican incumbent is doing. The poll surveyed over 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Plus, two recent analyses from Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball found that the odds are no longer all in Graham's favor. The non-partisan election forecasters shifted their rating of the race from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican.

The forecast change came after Harrison outraised Graham in the first three months of 2020. According to the latest campaign finance data, Harrison raised $7.4 million between January and March, as compared with Graham's $5.6 million. But Graham still has nearly $5 million more cash on hand than his Democratic counterpart.

https://www.newsweek.com/what-polls-say ... ce-1501492

I've seen Mr. Harrison interviewed several times, and he is a very appealing and state-appropriate candidate. No left winger by any standard, his central message is that Graham has grown out of touch with the state, and is too busy being a national political figure and neglecting the needs of South Carolinians.

It's a clever strategy which has been known to bring down more than one seemingly well-entrenched incumbent over the years...

[rubato]

I'm backing Amy McGrath again, this time against "Moscow Mitch". I haven't decided who else to back but I'd like to get rid of Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham. Collins is a sniveling toady to the Trump-led GOP.


yrs,
rubato

[Darren]

[Gob]

Trump to prove George Carlin right.

[Bicycle Bill]

Thanks to Darren, liberty, and wesw for showing us what the lower end of the curve looks like...

-"BB"-

[Scooter]

Recent polling confirms that North Carolina is going to be a tight race. But the big news comes from South Carolina, where Jamie Harrison is now tied with Lindsey Graham. I'm not sure why EV didn't use the Brilliant Corners poll that Jim posted about a couple of weeks ago, but a new poll shows that it wasn't a fluke; Graham is clearly on the defensive in a race he should have been able to win in a walk. Oh yeah, and Republican Martha McSally will be a two time loser in Arizona.

Democratic 50
Republican 48
Ties 2

[Scooter]

Polls continue to be tight in North Carolina. Arizona continues to be a lost cause for Republicans.

Democratic 50
Republican 49
Ties 1

[Scooter]

North Carolina is going to be a nail biter all around this year:

Democratic 50
Republican 48
Ties 2

[BoSoxGal]

I wonder what impact there will be on North Carolinians’ voting decisions by Trump pulling the GOP convention, assuming the party lets him do that.

[Scooter]

Was anyone imagining a few months ago that Iowa's senate seat would be in play? I hope Joni Ernst is stocking up on adult diapers.

Democratic 51
Republican 47
Ties 2

[BoSoxGal]

CNN)With all the focus on a slew of new polls that show President Donald Trump falling further behind former Vice President Joe Biden, one number has largely slipped through the cracks -- and it is a blaring warning signal to Republicans on the ballot this fall.

Here it is: 51% of registered voters said they would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats in 2021, while just 40% preferred a Republican-controlled Congress, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NBC poll released Sunday. That marks a change in Democrats' favor from January when the party had just a 6-point edge over the GOP on what is known as the "generic ballot" question.

(Side note: it's called the "generic ballot" because no specific candidates named are used. Just the two parties.)

The generic ballot has long been used by political handicappers as a sort of blunt instrument to understand voter sentiment. Think of it as a sort of weather vane that tells you which way the political winds are blowing and, roughly, how strongly.

More here

[Scooter]

I neglected to post the map yesterday that showed a new poll putting Mitch McConnell a point behind Amy McGrath in Kentucky. New polls today confirm that Joni Ernst continues to trail slightly in Iowa, and that Republicans have no hope of picking up a seat in Michigan that they were counting on.

Democratic 52
Republican 46
Ties 2

[Scooter]

This is the first poll since Democrat Jon Ossoff managed to avoid a runoff in his nomination race, and it shows him with a one point lead over Republican incumbent David Perdue.

Democratic 53
Republican 45
Ties 2

[Scooter]

Last week a poll had Amy McGrath up one point in Kentucky, this week another pollster says Mitch McConnell is up by 20 points. Clearly one or the other (or both) of these is out to lunch.

Democratic 52
Republican 46
Ties 2

[Scooter]

A new NC poll moves that seat to "barely Democratic".

Democratic 53
Republican 46
Ties 1

[Scooter]

GA moves back to the red column (barely).

Democratic 52
Republican 47
Ties 1

[Scooter]

New polls in Montana put it into the ties column.

Democratic 51
Republican 47
Ties 2

[Scooter]

Montana is now showing a Republican edge.

Democratic 51
Republican 48
Ties 1

[Scooter]

A new poll gives Lindsey Graham a one-point lead over Jaime Harrison in South Carolina. The NRSC must be freaking out trying to figure out where to put money this year, having to defend so many seats that shouldn't have been even close.

Democratic 51
Republican 49