2024 Presidential polls and projections

[BoSoxGal]

I hate this thread.

[MajGenl.Meade]

[Crackpot]

If it’s any consolation due to demographic shifts polling has been regularly skewing to the right the last few elections.

[Scooter]

Trump 291
Biden 243
Tie 4

[Scooter]

Trump 280
Biden 243
Tie 15

[Scooter]

Trump 280
Biden 230
Tie 28

[Scooter]

Trump 290
Biden 235
Tie 13

[Sue U]

I think it's a mistake to put PA in the "leans red" category and to show VA as a "tie." Aside from the fact that we're too far out for any meaningful predictions for November 2024, the voting trends in both commonwealths have been generally D over the last three years, both in the midterms and in special elections. And although I don't really follow Wisconsin politics, from what I have seen (especially the Supreme Court election last year) I'd say the Democrats and likely D voters are a lot more energized than the Rs.

[Scooter]

I posted the link to the methodology so that what they do is understood - they use the most recent poll for every state, and if there are multiple polls in the week before the most recent poll, they average all the polls. They only show a tie if the poll(s) show(s) an exact tie.

[Scooter]

Arizona flipped on Friday but I wasn't around to check the site:

Trump 301
Biden 224
Tie 13