Brexit On The Brink...

[BoSoxGal]

LJ you’re ignoring the fear-mongering that was engaged in by Brexiteers who promised huge sums pledged to the NHS if Brexit won the day - which was a huge lie as was made clear immediately after the referendum results. If it’s not fear-mongering to play to people’s concerns about their ability to access quality healthcare, I don’t know what is.

And there is just NO WAY to get around the connection between UKIP and Brexit, and the anti-immigrant sentiment stoked by one and central to the other. The correlations between that and the MAGA movement are pretty crystal and I don’t see how you can minimize them to the degree that you did in your post.

Brexitannia is really, really worth watching - again, interviews with everyday U.K. voters that reveal a great deal about motivations in voting leave or remain. There was plenty of anti immigrant sentiment on display, and just like here at home, a cognitive dissonance about why so many good jobs have gone away and who is responsible for them going (hint: it’s not the poor brown people).

[Gob]

Fear-mongering has always been the centerpiece of the Trump political strategy; without it he couldn't survive. In the case of Brexit, while both sides have engaged in a degree of fear-mongering the clear advantage in that regard is with the Remain folks, who were predicting the apocalypse if Brexit passed...

"Project Fear" was the nick-name given to the "Remain" side of the debate, as they predicted catastrophe if the vote was to leave..

George Osborne’s remainer Treasury infamously predicted a loss of 500,000 jobs after the Brexit vote. In reality, unemployment is at the lowest rate since 1975.

JP Morgan just after the Brexit vote claimed Scotland would leave the United Kingdom and get a new currency. Support for Scottish Independence is 12 points behind support for the Union.

The former Chancellor also claimed there would be an emergency budget with higher taxes and borrowing, he was later sacked by Theresa May and no such budget was introduced.

Former Health Minister Stephen Dorrell claimed Brexit would “undermine” funding for the NHS. Theresa May recently announced a £20bn boost to the NHS’s budget, partly paid for by reduced contributions to the European Union after Brexit.

According to European Council President Donald Tusk Brexit could “be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilization in its entirety,”. Civilisation remains intact (as of yet).

The IMF claimed Brexit would lead to a recession but since the vote, Britain’s GDP has grown in every quarter.

A new world war was predicted by David Cameron, who claimed “Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our Continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption.” No wars have yet taken place in Europe.

Former US President Barack Obama warned Britain would be at the “back of the queue” for a trade deal. Donald Trump has confirmed this is far from the case.

[BoSoxGal]

For those who are fans of political movies, I also recommend HBO’s film Brexit: The Uncivil War, which stars Benedict Cumberbatch as Dominic Cummings, the Leave campaign strategist - it’s a fascinating look inside the political machines on both sides and more importantly, the new strategies utilizing data from social media to target voters and shape public opinion and the vote - probably must-see viewing for Americans, really, considering that the same techniques were utilized heavily by the Trump campaign (not even counting Russian interference) and will doubtless become standard tactics in politics moving forward.

Brexit review NY Times

[ex-khobar Andy]

Per Gob's quote:

JP Morgan just after the Brexit vote claimed Scotland would leave the United Kingdom and get a new currency. Support for Scottish Independence is 12 points behind support for the Union.

Nicola Sturgeon - head of the Scottish National Party - has been saying, in essence, let's wait and see what happens with Brexit before we go for another referendum on Scottish independence. Scotland (despite Trump congratulating them on their Brexit vote) were very firmly against Brexit at the time of that referendum. Sturgeon has been very sensibly delaying a request for a new independence referendum until the situation is clear and people can make an informed choice about such an important matter.

Sounds like common (actually uncommon) sense to me.

[BoSoxGal]

Today in sabotage: Police found two “malicious obstructions” on train tracks in Nottinghamshire and Cambridgeshire, which appear to be “a serious and deliberate attempt by someone to cause significant sabotage and disruption to Britain’s rail network.” A note was attached to the short-circuiting devices reading, “We will bring this country to its knees if we don’t leave.” This follows an incident Friday, the day Britain was originally supposed to leave the EU, in which a Brexit supporter waving an English St. George’s flag climbed onto the roof of London’s St. Pancras Station, disrupting service on Eurostar trains. The man said he was angry at politicians for having “fucked up Brexit.”

[Econoline]

(1) 52% of "the people" voters in the referendum voted to leave the EU.
(2) Conservative party politicians negotiated an agreement to do just that.
(3) Conservative party politicians voted to reject the agreement.

Since Parliament voted against what the people voted for, shouldn't there be another referendum to give "the people" a chance to vote on the actual Brexit *PLAN* rather than the ambiguous undefined *IDEA* of a plan?

I mean, if you want people to vote on whether to land a man on the moon, they would need to know a lot of specific information on just what such an ambitious venture would entail besides a simple "GO/NO-GO" decision. ("Scientists? Computers? Rocket fuel? I didn't vote for any of that expensive crap; I just voted for a man on the moon!")

[rubato]

JP Morgan is an institution, not a person, and thus cannot say anything. If it is the institutional position that something is true then you will need better proof that it has said so.

What you have instead is merely the opinion of a single person at JP Morgan and you are too slovenly to use their name.

yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

Heavens to Murgatroyd, they actually managed to vote IN FAVOR of something, (okay, it was by one vote, and it's not binding on the EU, but still...)

No-deal Brexit law passed as Theresa May faces fury from her own side

London (CNN)UK lawmakers have finally agreed on something related to Brexit.
By the narrowest of margins, the House of Commons voted in favor of legislation which forces the UK government to request another extension to the Brexit process. The bill, which passed by 313 votes to 312, seeks to prevent Prime Minister Theresa May yanking the UK out of the European Union without an agreed deal.

It came as the May's Conservative party descended into civil war over her strategy.

Two ministers resigned from May's government in protest at her efforts to seek a compromise with the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn. One of her most senior ministers warned that a long extension to the Brexit process was inevitable.

Senior figures in both main parties raised the prospect of a second referendum to obtain the British public's backing for any deal -- and to offer the choice of remaining in the EU.

In a dramatic vote that came at almost midnight in London, lawmakers in the House of Commons passed legislation requiring the British government to ask the EU for another extension to the Article 50 process, the legal mechanism by which the UK is leaving the bloc. Britain is currently due to depart on April 12, but many observers doubt that May will be able to secure backing for her withdrawal deal by then.

The EU said it would be open to an extension. But it would likely have to be a long delay, requiring the UK to take part in elections to the European Parliament on May 23, a move that May has bitterly opposed. The legislation must now be approved by the House of Lords, a near certainty, in the next few days.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/uk/b ... index.html

[Scooter]

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

New reprieve till Halloween...

Brexit: UK and EU agree delay to 31 October

The new deadline - 31 October - averts the prospect of the UK having to leave the EU without a deal on Friday, as MPs are still deadlocked over a deal.

European Council President Donald Tusk said his "message to British friends" was "please do not waste this time".

Theresa May, who had wanted a shorter delay, said the UK would still aim to leave the EU as soon as possible.

The UK must now hold European elections in May, or leave on 1 June without a deal.

[Lord Jim]

May finally decides to take off the "Kick Me" sign:

Teresa May to step down on June 7 as UK prime minister

Theresa May said she will resign as the British Prime Minister, effective June 7. May announced her resignation outside 10 Downing Street in London, on Friday afternoon.

May set out a timetable for her departure: She will resign as Conservative Party leader on June 7 with a leadership contest in the following week.

"I will resign as leader of the Conservative and Unionist party on Friday, 7 June so that a successor can be chosen," May said outside 10 Downing Street.

May, once a reluctant supporter of EU membership, who won the top job in the turmoil that followed the 2016 Brexit vote, steps down with her central pledges - to lead the United Kingdom out of the bloc and heal its divisions - unfulfilled.

She endured crises and humiliation in her effort to find a compromise Brexit deal that parliament could ratify and bequeaths a deeply divided country and a political elite that is deadlocked over how, when or whether to leave the EU.

May's departure will deepen the Brexit crisis as a new leader is likely to want a more decisive split, raising the chances of a confrontation with the European Union and a snap parliamentary election.

The leading contenders to succeed May all want a tougher divorce deal, although the EU has said it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Treaty it sealed in November.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/politics/there ... 456701.htm


Reportedly the current leading candidate to replace May is Boris Johnson...

Who is likely to become the new prime minister?

Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is seen as the bookmaker’s favorite, having already received nominations for a leadership bid from former Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson and Tory lawmaker Johnny Mercer.

Johnson was one of the most prominent figures of the official Brexit campaign in 2016, with betting markets suggesting he has a 40% implied probability of winning the top job.

“Historically, in Conservative leadership contests it’s usually not the front-runner, but the underdog that tends to win,” Jordan Rochester, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura, said in a research note published Thursday.

Others tipped by betting markets include former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, with a 14% implied probability.

Environment Secretary Michael Gove, former House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt each have a 7% likelihood of succeeding May, according to bookmakers.

The likelihood of International Development Secretary Rory Stewart and Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt securing the role stands at 4%, while Home Secretary Sajid Javid is given a 3% chance.

How does a leadership contest work?

To have a full contest, there must be at least three people standing in the race to become prime minister.

The leadership contest takes place in two phases.

In stage one, Conservative MPs (members of parliament) consider whether they wish to put their own names forward. In 2016, candidates required the support of at least two other MPs in order to allow them to run.

All of the candidates would hold a series of speeches or debates, events sometimes referred to as hustings, where they lay out their plans for what they would want to achieve as prime minister.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/politics/there ... 456701.htm

I have been from the beginning, (and still am) a Brexit supporter. But I have also been fairly disgusted with the way that the leading pro-Brexit Tories in general (and Boris Johnson in particular) failed to step up after winning the vote, instead content to carp from the sidelines while leaving the heavy lifting of implementing Brexit to Conservative politicos (like May) who were never in favor of it in the first place...

Time to put up or shut up Boris...

[Gob]

May was a disaster for the UK, unable to get consensus within her own party, let alone parliament

I profoundly agree with you Jim, it's time for those who have been shooting their mouths off to step up to the plate. I fancy BoJo for PM, but he's got a lot to prove yet.

[Long Run]

failed to step up after winning the vote

Seems like this is more of a situation where everyone else takes a step back, leaving the hapless and slow-footed "winner" in charge.

[Crackpot]

If she had any sense of humor she would quit 7 days earlier.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Although her official resignation date is June 7 she will be caretaker PM for another month or more while the selection procedure runs its course. Trump will be there next week for his royal visit (God Save the Queen!!) and then they are all off to Normandy for the D-Day commemorations. I just took a look at the weather forecast for St Lo: 40% chance of rain, so you'd better stay in the hotel, Don. We don't want those bone spurs getting wet, do we?

[Bicycle Bill]

Although her official resignation date is June 7 she will be caretaker PM for another month or more while the selection procedure runs its course. Trump will be there next week for his royal visit (God Save the Queen!!) and then they are all off to Normandy for the D-Day commemorations. I just took a look at the weather forecast for St Lo: 40% chance of rain, so you'd better stay in the hotel, Don. We don't want those bone spurs getting wet, do we?

It wouldn't be the first time..... Trump condemned for missing Armistice ceremony at US cemetery because of ‘poor weather’ (11/11/18)

-"BB"-

[Econoline]

If she had any sense of humor she would quit 7 days earlier.

From Limericking:

• Horologists groan in dismay
  At such a confusing display
  It's a scandalous crime
  Against passage of time
  When June 7th's the last day of May

[Lord Jim]

I just saw reported on CNN that the Queen has given Trump a first edition copy of Churchill's book about WW II...

What a droll sense of humor Liz has...

Fancy giving Donald Trump a book...

Rather like giving a gift certificate for Tango lessons at the Arthur Murray Dance Studio to a wildebeest...

[Bicycle Bill]

I just saw reported on CNN that the Queen has given Trump a first edition copy of Churchill's book about WW II...

What a droll sense of humor Liz has...

Even better would be if there was a note from Her Majesty attached, asking, "...and by the way, in just what branch again did your father serve in WWII?"

-"BB"-