Polling numbers and predictions

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BoSoxGal
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by BoSoxGal »

I agree with Econo; I think that there are going to be many Republican women in the privacy of the voting booth who will pull the lever for Hillary because 1) Trump is INSANE, 2) Hillary is a WOMAN, 3) It's about fucking time!



On another note, I did an informal poll of the working class guys I work with - looks like 75% are so apathetic they're not planning to vote at all.

The 3 youngest guys ARE going to vote, but only to legalize marijuana in Massachusetts. :ok

Looks like we can count on our usual pathetic 33% voter participation in the greatest democracy on earth. :roll:
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MajGenl.Meade
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

South Africa just got 38.7% turnout which is pathetic. The good news is that the ANC is getting lumps - less than 60% of the vote for the first time ever. Still going to win, of course. But they look like losing the Nelson Mandela Bay metro (most shameful) and even Tshwane (i.e. Pretoria). DA held Capetown and took Port Elizabeth. Fun!
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Lord Jim
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

Voter participation in national elections in Presidential years is considerably better than 33%:

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_tur ... _elections
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Lord Jim
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

NBC/WSJ Poll: Hillary Clinton Jumps to Nine Point Lead Over Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a nine-point lead over Donald Trump, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll shows, nearly doubling the five-point advantage she held over her Republican foe before the political conventions.

In a head-to-head matchup, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine receives the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence gets 38 percent, the survey shows. Last month, Clinton led Trump by a margin of 46 percent to 41 percent.

In this latest poll, Clinton enjoys a significant advantage among women (51 percent to Trump's 35 percent), African Americans (91 percent to 1 percent), all non-white voters (69 percent to 17 percent), young voters (46 percent to 34 percent), and white voters with a college degree (47 percent to 40 percent).

Trump leads among white voters (45 percent to Clinton's 40 percent), seniors (46 percent to 43 percent), independents (36 percent to 32 percent) and white voters without a college degree (49 percent to 36 percent).

The two candidates are running nearly even among men, at 43 percent for Clinton and 42 percent for Trump.

When Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton still retains a nine-point advantage over Trump: Clinton is at 43 percent, Trump at 34 percent, Johnson at ten percent and Stein at five percent.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r ... mp-n623131


Clinton surges to big lead in McClatchy-Marist poll

WASHINGTON

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Republican Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men – while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.

Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.

“This is coming off the Democratic convention, where a bounce is expected,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the nationwide survey.

“What you don’t want is to have the worst week of your campaign,” a characterization many analysts use to describe Trump’s recent days.

Other polls have shown Clinton in the lead, though Marist’s is the largest so far.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politic ... rylink=cpy
Clinton's lead in the RCP average of recent polls is now up to 6.8% (it had dropped down to .4% right after the GOP convention)

She has led by 9, 15, and 10 in the three most recent polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html
Last edited by Lord Jim on Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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oldr_n_wsr
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by oldr_n_wsr »

1) Trump is INSANE, 2) Hillary is a WOMAN, 3) It's about fucking time!
I can agree number one is a legit reason to vote for Hillary.
The other two IMO are not.
I would not vote for (or against) someone because of their sex nor because it's their "time". Those reasons would not even weigh into the decision.
But that's just me.

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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

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I would not vote for (or against) someone because of their sex nor because it's their "time". Those reasons would not even weigh into the decision.
But that's just me.
Nor me.
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

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AJC poll: Hillary Clinton has slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia

Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republican’s campaign, and the Libertarian presidential ticket cracked double-digits, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.

The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup, within the poll’s margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996.

In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson with 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2 percent.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05 ... n-georgia/

Drumpf has been bragging for months that with him as the nominee there would be a lot more states in play then with the usual Republican nominee...

That's one prediction he's made that seems to be coming true... :roll:
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Long Run »

The current polls are hopeful, but it is a long way to November, especially in a 24-hour news cycle. This week the media have flocked to the Trump-looking-like-an-insane-person story. This angle will run its course (looks like it already has) and the media horde will be on to the next story which could well be HRC shooting herself in the foot, and then the polls will tighten and so it will go until we run out of wine and have to soberly figure out where the door is.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Lord Jim »

the next story which could well be HRC shooting herself in the foot
Which she just did a little while ago...

Repeating yet again her Four Pinocchio, Pants On Fire lies about the emails and what Comey said about them, this time at a professional journalists convention...

:roll: :shrug :roll: :shrug :roll: :shrug :roll:
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by rubato »

Long Run wrote:"... This week past 12 months the media have flocked to the Trump-looking-like-an-insane-person story. This angle will run its course when he shuts his mouth or quits breathing. .
fixed


His own party are talking openly about "an intervention".


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BoSoxGal
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by BoSoxGal »

Lord Jim wrote:
I would not vote for (or against) someone because of their sex nor because it's their "time". Those reasons would not even weigh into the decision.
But that's just me.
Nor me.
And both of you have penises and grew up and have lived in this society with all the privileges that having a penis afford, so of course that's your opinion.

To clarify, the "it's their time" is not about Hillary specifically, but about having a female President.
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

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To clarify, the "it's their time" is not about Hillary specifically, but about having a female President.
There are plenty of women who I could have enthusiastically supported for President, from current office holders going back to Jean Kirkpatrick....

Hillary Clinton doesn't happen to be one of them...

ETA:

I wonder how many liberals and/or Democrats would be pushing this "because it's their time" argument if the Dems had nominated a man and the GOP nominee was Susana Martinez, or Kay Bailey Hutchinson, or Nikki Haley or Condaleeza Rice...

My guess is not many...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Cindy Gallop made a good observation on NPR this a.m.

She is clearly not happy when women say something like "I don't want to get that job just because I'm a woman".

Rubbish! replies Cindy. For decades semi-competent men have been getting those jobs just because they are men. Take the job. Then knock their socks off with great work
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by rubato »

Romney's team did the same thing last time.
Donald Trump’s poll numbers are so bad his supporters are making up new ones
http://www.vox.com/2016/8/5/12386128/tr ... ased-polls

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Gob
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Gob »

Lord Jim wrote: I wonder how many liberals and/or Democrats would be pushing this "because it's their time" argument if the Dems had nominated a man and the GOP nominee was Susana Martinez, or Kay Bailey Hutchinson, or Nikki Haley or Condaleeza Rice...

.
Sarah Palin?
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by Guinevere »

:roll: :roll: :roll: OFFS :roll: :roll: :roll:

Yes, privileged white males over 50, please please tell us how it is.... We silly females don't really have a clue....




Where's @W. I need someone to eyeroll with me!

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
“I ask no favor for my sex. All I ask of our brethren is that they take their feet off our necks.” ~ Ruth Bader Ginsburg, paraphrasing Sarah Moore Grimké

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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by rubato »

I have heard no one say they will vote for Hillary "because it is their time" or that anyone ought to. As Obama said she is one of the best qualified persons for the job, ever.


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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

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She certainly lies better than Nixon...
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

rubato
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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by rubato »

MajGenl.Meade wrote:Cindy Gallop made a good observation on NPR this a.m.

She is clearly not happy when women say something like "I don't want to get that job just because I'm a woman".

Rubbish! replies Cindy. For decades semi-competent men have been getting those jobs just because they are men. Take the job. Then knock their socks off with great work

There is a presumption that we are all working in our own self-interest in business and in the workplace but only women are expected to pretend the opposite. They are expected to pretend that it is not all about personal gain, which it is for men, but all about some overarching system of selfless moral values. "Oh no, don't give ME that job unless you really think I REALLY deserve it." Whereas men will say "I got that job because I deserved it." Professional hiring is not an objective measure of "merit" it is a measure of the attractiveness of the candidate(s) to the hiring person/group. Attractiveness has nothing to do with moral worth.

She is right that most organizations are a lot better off with more women in them.


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Re: Polling numbers and predictions

Post by rubato »

MajGenl.Meade wrote:She certainly lies better than Nixon...

And has not committed a crime. Multiple crimes in Nixons case. Nor has she made racist and antisemitic comments, nor has she had an "enemies list" which she used to pervert the institutions of government to punish her opponents &c.


Really bad choice for a comparison.

The email 'scandal' was nothing. Misstatements about nothing are still nothing.


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