2024 Presidential polls and projections

[BoSoxGal]

I hate this thread.

[MajGenl.Meade]

[Crackpot]

If it’s any consolation due to demographic shifts polling has been regularly skewing to the right the last few elections.

[Scooter]

Trump 291
Biden 243
Tie 4

[Scooter]

Trump 280
Biden 243
Tie 15

[Scooter]

Trump 280
Biden 230
Tie 28

[Scooter]

Trump 290
Biden 235
Tie 13

[Sue U]

I think it's a mistake to put PA in the "leans red" category and to show VA as a "tie." Aside from the fact that we're too far out for any meaningful predictions for November 2024, the voting trends in both commonwealths have been generally D over the last three years, both in the midterms and in special elections. And although I don't really follow Wisconsin politics, from what I have seen (especially the Supreme Court election last year) I'd say the Democrats and likely D voters are a lot more energized than the Rs.

[Scooter]

I posted the link to the methodology so that what they do is understood - they use the most recent poll for every state, and if there are multiple polls in the week before the most recent poll, they average all the polls. They only show a tie if the poll(s) show(s) an exact tie.

[Scooter]

Arizona flipped on Friday but I wasn't around to check the site:

Trump 301
Biden 224
Tie 13

[Scooter]

These changes were posted yesterday but I wasn't around to check for them.

Trump 310
Biden 209
Tie 19


[/quote]

[BoSoxGal]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/22/us/stoic ... index.html

[Scooter]

Trump 316
Biden 209
Tie 13

[Scooter]

Wisconsin flipped yesterday but I missed reporting it.

Trump 306
Biden 219
Tie 13

[BoSoxGal]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... foundation

[Scooter]

Trump 306
Biden 209
Tie 23


[/quote]

[Burning Petard]

on-line news from Yahoo has this headline--"Poll: 60% of voters say Biden isn't fit for 2nd term, yet he's still nearly tied with Trump"

That looks to me like a clear indication that a similar number of voters think Trump is unfit to serve a second term.

snailgate.

[Joe Guy]

...That looks to me like a clear indication that a similar number of voters think Trump is unfit to serve a second term.

Yup! It tells me that Trump might win an election against an opponent who sometimes has trouble communicating and looks confused at times but he wouldn't have a chance against someone who is a good speaker.

[BoSoxGal]

I keep opening the headlines to read about democrats in the process of picking Biden’s replacement - WTAF is going on?

I hope this is some kind of exercise to prove that Biden’s been vetted for fitness and then we get on with this thing. Because if they have Biden withdraw and anyone but Kamala succeeds him, I should think it’s very likely that Trump wins. Many people would be justifiably outraged if they give the nomination to anyone but the black woman who has been having his back for the last four years and put some other white dude in the spot instead.

Am I wrong?

Also I hate to say this but I’m not sure Kamala beats Trump. Because misogyny is very clearly alive and well in this country.

[Big RR]

I also don't think Harris would run well against Trump; sure there are the racist and sexist reasons which will lose her votes; but also, she has been VP for four years and has been pretty much kept under wraps. I'm not entirely sure of the reasoning behind this (or even who is responsible), but to many it will appear she has done very little, if anything, while in office--indeed, I'd bet a lot of people don't even know who the VP is. Even if she has a stellar resume of accomplishment, most people do not recognize it. That's not a position to launch a successful campaign from.

So, like it or not, I think the dems have to go forward with Biden as he is their best chance to beat Trump. And if Biden does win, I think the dems have to do a better job of broadening the national reputation of Harris, and anyone else who is likely be considered as the nominee in 2028.