trump is serious!!!!!

[Scooter]

Yeah, it's trivia, we should be focusing on more substantive things, blah, blah, blah. It's still funny.

[wesw]

oh you guys.....

you all can see that trump is gonna win....now.

don t cry.....

the shitbombing of melania really sealed the deal

thank you, morning joe!!!!

oh and bill, I m a half-ass cripple these days....

I cut grass pro bono for my neighbors who don t have lawnmowers of when its 95 degrees and pushing a mower would kill them and I give away frsh veggies and I cook for my baby and keep the yard pretty for her.

I keep old trucks alive

but I used build giant erector sets....

[Econoline]

the shitbombing of melania really sealed the deal

I've already quoted this:

The Melania story rebounds to his advantage.

...but that said, it's not enough to "seal the deal" for anyone but a bunch of old, white, cranky troglodytes. But I do think the Democrats would be wise to keep feeling like--and running like--they're the underdogs.

[wesw]

man, you all shoulda watched the convention...., it was a rainbow stew.....

[Bicycle Bill]

man, you all shoulda watched the convention...., it was a rainbow stew.....

I have watched the convention — as much as I could stand.  After a very short time I felt such a strong sense of revulsion for what I was witnessing I began to understand, albeit on a small scale, what the the first American soldiers into Auschwitz and Dachau or those who had to clean up the mess after Jonestown, the Orlando night-club massacre, or the terrorist attacks in France (Charlie Hebdo, Bataclan/the football stadium, and Nice) must have felt upon finding what they did.

As for "rainbow stew" — you've never really listened to the song and paid any attention to what the term actually meant, have you?  If you had, then you'd know that "rainbow stew" is akin to "pie in the sky" or the pledge of another Republican that if he were elected there would soon be "a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage".  So we voted him in, and got the Great Depression and 'Hooverville' instead.  Let's not make the same mistake again, shall we?

-"BB"-

[BoSoxGal]

[Long Run]

Nate Silver's latest handicapping.

Jul 19, 2016 at 10:54 AM
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004

There has been a lot of polling over the past few days in advance of the Republican National Convention, which got underway Monday in Cleveland. But it mostly confirmed the conclusion our election forecast models had arrived at late last week: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 or 4 percentage points. That’s down from a lead of 6 or 7 percentage points a few weeks ago.

As a result, Trump’s odds have improved. He has a 36 percent chance of winning the election, according to our polls-only forecast, and a 38 percent chance according to polls-plus. * * *

The race is a long way from being a toss-up, but a 3 or 4 percentage point lead heading into the conventions isn’t all that reliable, either. While Obama won twice with pre-convention leads of about that margin, John Kerry went into his convention with a lead of about 3 percentage points in 2004, but lost to George W. Bush. And in 2000, Bush had about a 4-point lead on the eve of the conventions, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. (Bush won the Electoral College, of course.)

The flip side is that the recent polls could just as easily prove to be a low-water mark for Clinton. Conventions have oftentimes helped the incumbent party’s candidate. One of the biggest turnarounds came in 1988, when Michael Dukakis, the upstart winner of the Democratic nomination, held a lead of 6 or 7 percentage points going into the conventions. But a well-staged Republican convention in New Orleans helped to unify the GOP and highlight the successes of George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, and Bush eventually won by a landslide.

What’s relatively safe to say is that we’ll know a lot more in a month or so.
* * *

In recent years the size of convention bounces has declined; instead of bounces that sometimes ran into the double-digits, they’ve been more like 4 percentage points instead. The bounces have also become harder to measure because, beginning with the 2008 cycle, the incumbent party began to hold its convention immediately after the challenging party, instead of waiting several weeks. That doesn’t give a lot of time for pollsters to measure the challenging party’s convention bounce.

* * *
It would be a bad sign for Trump if he can’t at least tie Clinton in polls conducted in between the RNC and the DNC. Since recent convention bounces have averaged 3 or 4 percentage points, and Trump trails Clinton by 3 or 4 points now, that would suggest he’d had a below-average convention bounce. And it would certainly be a bad sign for Clinton if she doesn’t lead after her convention, since she both holds the lead going into the conventions and gets to hold her convention last.

Beyond that, you should read the polls with some caution over the next few weeks. * * *

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... s-in-2004/

[rubato]

Nate Silver's latest handicapping.

"...

Beyond that, you should read the polls with some caution over the next few weeks. * * *

When Nate Silver says "the polls are not credible" as clearly as that, believe him.

Right now the most important determinant is how few major GOP figures even went to the convention. These are the world's greatest attention whores, a chance to be on national TV for them is like manna to the Israelites in the desert.



yrs,
rubato

[Scooter]

Sorry, but I have to post one more:

[BoSoxGal]

[Bicycle Bill]

Right now the most important determinant is how few major GOP figures even went to the convention.

My understanding is that Trump himself isn't even there, but has been addressing the assembled multitude of sycophants by way of the Jumbotron.

-"BB"-

[Econoline]

ETA: But I *WAS* rather disappointed that Gingrich didn't say "She turned me into a Newt."

[Sue U]

ETA: But I *WAS* rather disappointed that Gingrich didn't say "She turned me into a Newt."

He never got better.

[Beer Sponge]

Scooter, keep those memes coming! I really enjoy them!!

[Econoline]

[Bicycle Bill]

WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS



AND THIS?



Absolutely nothing ... they both support a prick.

-"BB"-

[Scooter]

[rubato]

He's a good Christian, first.

Mike Pence: “I'm a Christian, a Conservative and a Republican. In That Order”

yrs,
rubato

[Sue U]

He's a good Christian, first.

Mike Pence: “I'm a Christian, a Conservative and a Republican. In That Order”

yrs,
rubato

I notice he didn't mention "American." Why does Mike Pence hate America?

[Joe Guy]

Because Trump is the devil and Pence is his minion.