Brexit On The Brink...

[BoSoxGal]

[Gob]

German companies shed more jobs this month than they created for the first time in six years, according to figures that underscore how a slump in the EU’s largest economy has dragged down the rest of the eurozone.

After 14 months of falling new orders from abroad and a steep drop in sales across the manufacturing sector in October, the German economy’s slide to the brink of recession appeared to be continuing unabated.

IHS Markit’s flash composite output index for Germany – which is based on approximately 85% of the usual monthly replies – registered 48.6, little changed from September’s near seven-year low of 48.5 and below the 50 no-change level for the second month in a row.

The composite index, which covers the services and manufacturing sectors, showed the drop in overall employment, the first since 2013, tracked a fall in work and a deterioration in business confidence about future activity.

IHS Markit said its report found that firms kept staff busy working through backlogs of orders for the 12th month in a row and at the quickest rate for nearly seven years.

Analysts said the year-long decline in German output had dragged down the 19-member eurozone to near stagnation. The flash composite index for the eurozone increased to 50.2 in October, up marginally from 50.1 in September, “to signal the second smallest expansion of output across manufacturing and services since the current upturn began in July 2013”.



https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -recession

[ex-khobar Andy]

All this talk about the will of the people. A poll of polls conducted frequently ever since the referendum has shown over the last year or more (since July 2018) somewhere between a 3% and an 8% majority stating that, with the benefit of hindsight, UK is wrong to leave the EU. On 21 October, last time they looked, it was 7%.

They conducted the poll every week or so on average and poll size was routinely 1600 or more, occasionally <2000. It's pretty convincing. People have changed their minds since the non-binding 2016 result; and there has been a hell of a lot more information about the consequences of Brexit since then. Why is it so hard for the government to say: let's ask again just to make sure?

[Big RR]

Of course polls and referenda are very different things; as I recall, the polls were predicting that remain would prevail in the referendum.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Yes of course, RR.

This is interesting from an academic survey reported by the Guardian. Not sure if it's relevant but the study was conducted by the Universities of Edinburgh (Scotland) and Cardiff (Wales):

Most leave voters who took part in the Future of England study thought violence towards MPs was a “price worth paying” for Brexit to be delivered – 71% in England, 60% in Scotland and 70% in Wales.

The majority of remain voters felt that potential violence was worth it if it meant we would stay in the EU – 58% in England, 53% in Scotland and 56% in Wales.

Looks as if leavers who condone violence against MPs way outnumber remainers who feel the same way. I could have predicted that but I would have guessed that numbers for both sides would be around 10% or 15% but not 50% to 70%.

Further down:

Many were also willing to see the union change substantially if it meant they would get their own way on Brexit. Among leave voters, 74% in England, the same percentage in Wales and 59% in Scotland believed the breakup of the UK would be worth it to take back control through delivering Brexit.

Both sets of numbers astound me. Let that sink in: 74% of English Brexit voters think it's worth it even if the Union breaks up. As Scottish born but usually identified as English (accent) I am just distressed.

[Scooter]

So a shaky German economy makes Brexit a good idea because...?

[Gob]

All this talk about the will of the people. A poll of polls conducted frequently ever since the referendum has shown over the last year or more (since July 2018) somewhere between a 3% and an 8% majority stating that, with the benefit of hindsight, UK is wrong to leave the EU. On 21 October, last time they looked, it was 7

Polls are not referendums of millions of people. Going into the referendum we already had the polls were indicating remain would win by 10%+

If we have another referendum, and, God forbid, "remain" win, should we then have a "best of three" deciding referendum?

GIVE US A FUCKING ELECTION FOR GODS SAKE!!!!!

[Gob]

So a shaky German economy makes Brexit a good idea because...?

Oh come on...

The whole failed EU experiment will go down the tubes without the UK cash cow, the decline of the German economy just hastens that.

Still haven't seen you arguing for "ever closer union" between your country, the USA, Mexico, Honduras, Brazil, and Argentina? If it's good for the Uk to be politically and financially tied to the EU, surely it makes sense for Canada to join an Americas Union. You could have a shared currency, no borders, and all the other "advantages."

[Scooter]

Even with the limited integration now in place among the continental American countries, cutting those ties would be a disaster for all of our economies, which is why everyone was in a panic over Trump's threat to blow up NAFTA. And yes, I do see increased integration of the American continents as a good thing. And I am certainly no Trumpian xenophobe who sees all cross border movement as an existential threat. Perhaps you have me confused with those who voted Conservative or People's Party in our recent election.

[Gob]

So you would like "ever closer union" with the USA and other South American countries, Including fiscal unity and a shared currency, and open borders?

Don't forget, your proportion of their version of the MEPs will depend on your population size in proportion to the other members.

[MajGenl.Meade]

There's a world of difference (huh) between economic cooperation, trade agreements and such cattle and the total handover of political power to foreigners

[Scooter]

I think that a closer political and economic union with all American countries would be helpful in moderating the outsized U.S. influence on the rest of us that comes from having to deal with the U.S. 1-on-1.

[BoSoxGal]

Didn’t the UK refuse to go Euro? Everything I buy from there is still sold in £s.

[ex-khobar Andy]

EU has granted what it calls a 'flextension' for Brexit, until 30 January, in response to BloJo's request.

Johnson requested this with an unsigned letter on 19 October with an accompanying note saying, essentially, 'they are making me send this and I don't really want to.'

Our dashing blond PM has said that he'd rather 'die in a ditch' than request an extension.

I can work with that.

[Gob]

Jeremy Corbyn has announced that Labour is ready to back a general election now that the EU has granted a three-month Brexit delay, making a pre-Christmas poll all but certain.

With the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National party preparing to support a one-line bill tabled by Boris Johnson’s government later on Tuesday, triggering an early poll, Corbyn said his party would also vote for it.

The Labour leader told the shadow cabinet: “I have consistently said that we are ready for an election and our support is subject to a no-deal Brexit being off the table.

“We have now heard from the EU that the extension of article 50 to 31 January has been confirmed, so for the next three months, our condition of taking no deal off the table has now been met.

We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change our country has ever seen.”

Corbyn’s party abstained on Monday when Johnson tabled a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (FTPA) to call for an election, with the shadow cabinet split over the wisdom of an early poll.

The Labour leader and his close allies have been keen to hit the campaign trail, despite the reticence of his chief whip, Nick Brown, and other key figures.

[ex-khobar Andy]

From the Grauniad: Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is expected to cost the UK economy as much as £70bn [that's ~ $90 bn at today's rate] over the next decade compared with remaining in the EU, according to one of the country’s leading economic thinktanks.

Also

In forecasts that could embarrass the prime minister, NIESR [National Institute of Economic and Social Research] said the UK economy would be smaller at the end of the 2020s under Johnson than it would have been under Theresa May if she had won approval for her Brexit deal. All Brexit options would result in a smaller economy after a decade than remain, it added.

NIESR is pretty independent and is not usually described as left or right leaning.

[Econoline]

I just don't get it. Could anyone please explain to me just what makes the agreement negotiated by Johnson significantly different from—and better than—the agreement negotiated by May??? And so much different/better that the first one should be rejected and the new one approved????

So...the difference is that one PM has is a pussy and the other has is a dick?

[Lord Jim]

I thought I had answered that question a while ago:

Looks to me like those "models" must be based on basically one assumption...

The greater the economic independence and autonomy from the EU that the UK has, the worse it is for Britain economically...

Which may or may not turn out to be accurate, but which also demonstrates that Johnson's plan must achieve those conditions ( economic independence and autonomy from the EU) to a greater degree than May's...

Which is exactly what he promised to achieve with any new plan he agreed to...


From what I've seen on the political side most of the opposition to Johnson's plan comes from those (regardless of whatever objection du jour they may be voicing) who would oppose any plan because they reject Brexit entirely, (he's brought on board those who opposed May's plan because they didn't think it achieved sufficient autonomy; that's why he was able to bring in more votes than she was ) and their real goal is to gum up the works so badly that they can get a "second bite of the apple" with a second Brexit referendum...

[MajGenl.Meade]

edited to correct brain fart: didn't notice sterling vs $ sign

Never mind

[Gob]

Well we're getting the election I have been begging for for ove a year now. At. Fucking. Last!!