2024 Presidential polls and projections

[Scooter]

Oh what a difference a week makes.

Trump 270
Harris 247
Tie 21

[BoSoxGal]

[Crackpot]

I have to ask is Donald Trumpet so shook up by Kamala or we just been so inured by Bidens comparable decline that we just didn’t notice it as much?

[Joe Guy]

I have to ask is Donald Trumpet so shook up by Kamala or we just been so inured by Bidens comparable decline that we just didn’t notice it as much?

Yes, Donald has always been scatter-brained and his communication skills have been quite noticeably declining in the last couple of years.

btw, I've been watching a series on HBO Max called Signs of a Psychopath and I'm now absolutely convinced that Trump is a psychopath.

[Sue U]

Is "ignoracist" a portmanteau or is it just a redundancy?

[Bicycle Bill]

The illegal, border-crossing immigrants are taking black jobs?   He might as well have used the old phrase, "doing n****r work".   And then he goes on to say that these border-crossers are gang members and criminals.   Looking back on how he claims they are taking "black jobs", he pretty much just said that the employment niche for black people in America is that of a law-breaking gang-banger.

Tell me again how anyone with three or more functioning brain cells (unless that gray matter has been marinating for decades in Busch or Bud Light) could ever vote for someone like that?

-"BB"-

[Joe Guy]

....The illegal, border-crossing immigrants are taking black jobs?........

Yeah, I don't know how things are in your state but here in California one of my black friends applied for a job as a cotton-picker and was told those jobs are only going to illegal aliens. I advised him that it might be a good idea for him to try applying for Hispanic, White or an Asian jobs. He asked me where he should go to find an Asian job and I told him to check the yellow pages.

[Scooter]

Trump 270
Harris 257
Tie 11

[Scooter]

And Harris takes the lead...

Harris 276
Trump 251
Tie 11

[Scooter]

Harris 276
Trump 235
Tie 27

[Sue U]

So NC has moved from "leans Trump" to "tie," I suspect largely because the GOP gubernatorial candidate is an absolute whackjob and has also apparently misappropriated government funds.

I am surprised to see GA still showing as "leans Trump" rather than "tie," especially given Trump's disastrous appearance there 10 days ago, and I do believe it will go to "leans Harris" after the Dem convention as she will pull huge numbers in Atlanta and Augusta (which are probably being under-sampled in the polling).

We're still a little too far out from election day for prognosticating, but if current trends continue I think Harris will end up with more than 300 electoral votes. (I will note that earlier in this thread I correctly predicted WI and PA would switch from red to blue and that VA would go from "tie" to blue.)

[Scooter]

I think it's a function of when the most recent polling was done. Their maps shows the latest included GA polls as July 30.

[Scooter]

Just in case anyone is getting too exuberant, this is where we were on this date in 2020:

Biden 373
Trump 165

Biden was theoretically going to win Texas and Florida

And in 2016:

Clinton 353
Trump 179
Ties 6

when Clinton was going to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Florida (Iowa was the tie)

[Sue U]

Oh, I'm not exuberant, but I am very cautiously optimistic. I learned my lesson in 2016: Do not tempt the irony gods.

[Big RR]

Indeed; I won't tempt them either--especially given how horrible it will be if the election flips the other way.

[eddieq]

Just in case anyone is getting too exuberant, this is where we were on this date in 2020:

Biden 373
Trump 165

Biden was theoretically going to win Texas and Florida

And in 2016:

Clinton 353
Trump 179
Ties 6

when Clinton was going to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Florida (Iowa was the tie)

Just an example of "Polling is Poo". All that counts are the actual votes cast. Sure polls can give an idea of trends and leanings, but not always accurate.

[Scooter]

I missed yesterday when Harris got Arizona. Today Trump has Nevada.

Harris 281
Trump 241
Tie 16

[BoSoxGal]

[Scooter]

Harris 297
Trump 241

[Scooter]

Harris 278
Trump 260


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