Brexit On The Brink...

[Lord Jim]

Even though the Brits have a short "formal" campaign period of six weeks, the fact of the matter is if you look at the interaction between the parties, the campaigning and jockeying for position for the next election begins right after the last election, just as it does in this country...

We're just more honest about it...

[ex-khobar Andy]

The campaign is driving me nuts. How you fuckers put up with the year long farrago that yours entail....

I didn't think Farrago was standing this time around . . .

[Gob]

1. We are electing the leader of the free world.

2. Longer attention span.


yrs,
rubato

See above

[Gob]

Back in reality land...

[Gob]

Latest polls

The Conservatives have taken a commanding 19-point lead over Labour with less than three weeks to go before voters head to the polls, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The Tory share of the vote now stands at 47%, with Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems falling back to 12%. Also struggling is the Brexit party, which has collapsed to 3%.

Underlying the Tory lead is the party’s success in attracting support from Leave voters: three-quarters of them say they would vote Conservative.

[MajGenl.Meade]

1. We are electing the leader of the free world.

Shorly, "liar"?

[Gob]

[ex-khobar Andy]

That poll was taken before Labour/Corbyn obtained documents which showed how the Tories were colluding with US trade negotiators - i.e., the Trump team - to get the NHS to pay a lot more for drugs than they do at the moment. The National Health Service, despite its problems, is seen as sacrosanct and Corbyn has only just begun pressing that button. I'm not saying Corbyn will be PM in a couple of weeks but those numbers from Gob's poll will tighten a lot.

[Gob]

All been debunked mate

Here are the five wild claims Jeremy Corbyn made about Boris Johnson and the NHS, and how they were swiftly debunked.

That under Boris Johnson the NHS is on the table in trade talks and will be up for sale
Reality: The trade talk documents only mention the NHS four times in 450 pages, and span meetings which took place before Boris Johnson became PM.Nowhere does it explicitly say the NHS is on the table in talks – instead it says the US is aware of the “sensitivities with the health sector in the UK” in talks.In July this year, The Department for International Trade stated: “The NHS will never be privatised, and any future agreements will not change that.”The Tory Manifesto states: “The NHS is not on the table. The price the NHS pays for drugs is not on the table. The services the NHS provides are not on the table.”

The election is a “fight for the survival of the NHS as a public service free at the point of need”:
Reality: This is a scare story which has been peddled by Labour in the election campaign, but the reality is no trade deal could do this.As Mark Dayan, a researcher from the health think-tank the Nuffield Trust has said: “A trade deal would not have the power to stop the NHS being a free, universal service.”

That trade deal could send the cost of NHS drugs soaring by £500million a week by giving US big pharma longer patents on their drugs.
Reality: Jeremy Corbyn claims the document shows the US are pushing for American drugs to have longer patents - a form of copyright which prevent cheaper versions being produced.He says this would send the price of life-saving drugs soaring. But his claims are one-sided and numbers are overblown. The Government has insisted the price of drugs is not on the table in a trade deal.Mr Corbyn has taken the £500m figure from a report written by Andrew Hill at Liverpool University.But Dr Hill has admitted it is a “crude estimate”, and independent experts at the Full Fact website have branded the number “extreme and unrealistic”.The Labour leader quoted the document, which states the “impact of some patent issues raised on NHS access to generic drugs (ie cheaper drugs) will be a key consideration going forward.”But No10 said this passage has been wildly misinterpreted, and only showed that officials were flagging up a potential issue.

That privatisation of the NHS is up for discussions in trade talks:
Reality: The papers only show that the US probed Britain’s position on health insurance, but the UK officials made it clear they wouldn’t “want to discuss particular health entities”.UK trade officials said they thought the US raised the issue as part of a “fishing expedition” and they do not “believe the US has a major offensive interest in this space”.Boris Johnson has repeatedly insisted the NHS is not on the table in talks.

That trade talks between the US and UK are “at a very advanced stage” and on the cusp of doing a deal.
Reality: This is not true. Britain remains in the EU customs union and therefore cannot start official in depth trade talks until we Brexit. Detailed trade talks can only begin after Britain has left the EU.

[Lord Jim]

I'm not surprised at the strength the Tories are showing, (or the weakness that the Labourites are showing, saddled with the most un-electable leader since Michael Foote) but I am somewhat surprised that the Lib Dems aren't doing a bit better...

I disagree with the Lib Dem position on Brexit, but at least they have one...

They're agin' it...

.It seems to me that if you're definitely opposed to Brexit, the Lib Dems would be appealing to you; unlike with most issues, for once they're not in the "mushy middle"...

The same cannot be said for the Labour Party, which has been deeply divided on the issue...

(There are some divisions among the Conservatives as well, but not as severe. At this point even most of the Tories who opposed Brexit respect the vote and are on board with making some sort of exit work, even if they're not crazy about it...)

The divisions in the Labour Party to a certain extent reflect Corbyn's ambivalent all-over-the-map incompetent leadership on the issue, but to be fair to Jeremy, it also reflects very real division's within the Labour party's various constituencies...

The leftie dilettante crowd; made up largely of middle class government employee Jobsworths, college professors, Bolshi college students, and leftwing upper class types who like to assuage their consciences about being rich (and excuse their large carbon foot prints) by voting for strong socialist and pacifist agendas (actors, pop singers, news media stars etc.) are all pretty much unified against Brexit...(They basically have no confidence in the ability of the British people to rule themselves, so the more sovereign power the UK cedes to the much "wiser" types in Brussels, the better as far as they are concerned.)

But among what used to be the core of Labour Party support; actual "shower after work" working class people, (at least these folks used to be the core of the Labour Party back when Labour was actually able to elect governing parliamentary majorities; something they will never do just appealing to the afore mentioned leftie dilettante constituencies) there's a substantial portion that are pro Brexit..A number of working class strong hold districts voted pro Brexit on the referendum...

The Labour Party leadership has done a splendid job of delivering these voters to the Tories on a sliver platter...

[Gob]

Good analysis Jim, I do not disagree with any of it.

Isn't it ironic though that the LIBERAL DEMOCRAT party, has as it's core election promise, the most illiberal, and undemocratic policy ever seen? To cancel article 50 without any further consultation.

The rather jolly hockey sticks Head Girl has her work cut out!

[Gob]

Pound hits seven-month high amid Tory win expectations

The pound has hit its highest level in seven months, as City traders show increased confidence that Boris Johnson will win next week’s general election.

Sterling has jumped to $1.3039, up nearly half a cent, to levels not seen since May 2019.

Traders appear to be reacting to the latest Sky News/YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a nine-point lead ahead of Thursday’s general election.

The poll puts the Tories on 42%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats are on 12%, and Brexit Party is on 4%, up two points.

The City fears another hung parliament, which could mean more deadlock and possible a disorderly Brexit. So this polling is pushing the pound up

It seems the financial markets are betting on Boris to win.

[Gob]

With four days to go, these are three possible outcomes..

[Gob]

Election opinion polls tracker: gap between Labour and Tories narrows with result in balance

Over the last few weeks, Labour and the Tories have crept up at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Brexit party. But there is still enough variation in the polls that some are predicting a comfortable Conservative majority while others are pointing to a possible hung parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... ies-labour

If there's a hung Parliament, I'm moving back to Australia.

[Econoline]

You guys have the option to hang your Parliament? Cool!

Over here on this side of the pond, we're SOOOO jealous.







Oh wait.......

[BoSoxGal]

Praying for the citizens of the UK tonight.

[Gob]

You guys have the option to hang your Parliament? Cool!

Over here on this side of the pond, we're SOOOO jealous.







Oh wait.......

Lovely, if only!!!

[ex-khobar Andy]

My prediction: Conservative 280 seats; Labour 250 seats; Scottish Nationalists 50 seats; LibDems (anti-Brexit) 40 seats; Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) 12 seats; Democratic Unionists (Northern Ireland Protestant/Loyalists) 10 seats; Sinn Fein (NI Catholics/Irish Unionists) 7 seats; Greens 1 seat.

My prediction for post election;

Conservative Party (350)
Democratic Unionist Party (8)
Labour Party (190)
Scottish National Party (65)
Liberal Democrats (24)
The Independent Group for Change (0)
Plaid Cymru (2)
Green Party (1)
Independent (10)

It looks as if your prediction is very accurate, Gob, based on the exit polls which have often been pretty good. Just after 5PM Eastern or 10 PM UK time. I doubt it will change very much. Current projection is 368 for BloJo and 191 for Corbyn.

[Long Run]

A vote to get Brexit done, seems a fair assessment. Let's see if they can pull it off.

[Lord Jim]

If the exit polls are anywhere near right, its inconceivable that Boris wont have the votes to get his Brexit deal through Parliament...

Good. It's time to get on with it...