The Countdown to the restart of the economy has begun.

[Darren]

Why am I reminded of hiding under a school desk for protection against nuclear blast effects?

Because you don't know WTF you're talking about?

I take it you didn't read the articles about antibody testing in Chicago or the discovery in France.

[Scooter]

Texas sets record for largest gain of COVID-19 cases over a two-day period since pandemic began

AUSTIN, Texas — Over the first weekend or May 2020, Texas health officials reported the greatest two consecutive-day gains in the number of new COVID–19 cases, with more than 2,000 new cases added on May 2 and May 3.

There were 1,293 new cases of the virus reported Saturday. That’s the second greatest single-day gain since the pandemic began. On April 10, the state recorded 1,441 new cases.

On Monday, May 4, 784 new cases were added to the total. And Texas has experienced 32,332 cases of the COVID-19 virus through Monday evening.

Fifty-one deaths from the virus in Texas were reported over the two-day weekend, with 17 additional fatalities on Monday, according to the state health department. The total death toll stands at 884 as of May 4.

As of May 4, Travis County has 1,816 total cases, up from 1,683 on May 1. Williamson County reported 328 cases on May 1, up from 306 on May 1.

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

I take it you didn't read the articles about antibody testing in Chicago or the discovery in France.

Nah, I'm more a reputable scientific data kinda guy...

But by all means, you keep us up to date on all the witch doctor rattle stuff...

[BoSoxGal]

I think I might have posted this article in the coronavirus thread, but anyway it’s worth repeating. Dr. Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist and guy who actually knows stuff, predicts 800,000 deaths by the time we reach some semblance of herd immunity. If we open everything up without any mitigation efforts and just let the virus rip through the population, we’re talking more like millions.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html

It will be a long time before life looks like it did pre-covid19. At least for anyone with half a brain and a desire not to get sick or sicken others.

[Darren]

"Antibody Testing: FDA performance data shows reliability for new Roche test

NDIANAPOLIS (WTHR) - Hoosiers want antibody testing to see if they've had COVID-19.

But is there a way to ensure lab results are accurate?

Roche Diagnostics is answering questions from 13 Investigates. Based on its science, Roche believes its new test will boost confidence.

Cellex, Abbott, Euroimmun and now Roche Diagnostics are among the dozen labs granted emergency use by the FDA for what's known as serology or antibody testing.

But how do you know if a test is detecting COVID-19 or nothing more than the common cold?

According to data from the FDA, Roche put its science to the test. The results put them near the top.

13 Investigates asked Roche about its approach to ensuring more reliable results.

"We've tested over 5,000 patient samples, more than five times what any of the competitors have done and the data they have released," responded Pritchard.
...
Roche is shipping out its new tests nationwide to partners already using its systems with a goal of conducting millions of antibody tests each week."

Abbott shipped 4.6 million antibody tests up to the previous week. They'll ship about 4 million per week sometime in June.

[BoSoxGal]

And the latest word is that the White House coronavirus task force will be closing up shop in early June.

Yeah, that’s leadership for you.

[dales]

Out of sight and out of mind, I suppose.

[Darren]

And the latest word is that the White House coronavirus task force will be closing up shop in early June.

Yeah, that’s leadership for you.

We already know why and how NYC screwed up. We already know about the Chinese initiated hot spots. We have people whose medical care including cancer treatments and exams for cancer have been put on hold.

It's time to open up hospitals like UPMC in Pittsburgh that told the governor to get fucked. They went back to work and ignored the governor's orders.

While you don't believe herd immunity exists, the Chicago testing weeks ago already pointed out we're ahead of the curve. Same with the time of entry into the country. The French testing showed their infections started last year well before it was official thanks to China and the WHO.

That's one reason why the models have always predicted higher cases than actual. The actual inception occurred months earlier and the mortality is much less than currently calculated once you add in everyone that was infected previously, thought they had the flu but didn't, and put it behind them.

The country is going back to work sooner than later with the possible exception of a few now politically endangered governors. They'll shit themselves when the rest of the country does just fine.

How long will it be before those governors lift their restrictions?

[Lord Jim]

And the latest word is that the White House coronavirus task force will be closing up shop in early June.

Yeah, that’s leadership for you.

On a day when the US death toll has once again shot up over 2000, we now know what Trump's next desperate political gambit is...

"Pretend the health threat is over and the public will no longer focus on it"

Sorry Killer Don; the coronavirus doesn't care whether you ignore it or not, and the public sure ain't going to fall for it either...

[Joe Guy]

I think Donald should have his own experience with Covid-19 before making anymore decisions about how to deal with the pandemic. Then he might realize that Covid is more serious than his imaginary bone spurs.

[RayThom]

[Darren]

I think Donald should have his own experience with Covid-19 before making anymore decisions about how to deal with the pandemic. Then he might realize that Covid is more serious than his imaginary bone spurs.

Did you read the statements from the doctors at UPMC in Pittsburgh? COVID-19 isn't as bad as the media would have you believe.

"A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% — far lower than the mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the pandemic.

Dr. Donald Yealy based it partly on studies of levels of coronavirus antibodies detected in people in New York and California, and partly on COVID-19 deaths in the Pittsburgh region. The studies found that 5-20% of people had been exposed to the coronavirus, with many noticing only mild illness or none at all, he said.

“We’ve learned that way more people, far, far more people have actually been exposed to the infection without any knowledge of it. That makes the overall death rate much lower,” said Yealy, who is UPMC’s chair of emergency medicine. “Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.”

Yealy went on to offer a hypothetical scenario of 3% of Allegheny County residents being exposed — a conservative number compared to the findings of the New York and California studies.

That would mean about 36,000 people in Allegheny have been exposed to the coronavirus. With 94 COVID-19 deaths in the county as of Thursday, it would mean 0.25 percent of people exposed to the coronavirus had died, he said.

“There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” Yealy said.

Yealy said about 1,300 people in Allegheny have tested positive for COVID-19. That would mean, in his hypothetical scenario, another 34,700 had been exposed but had no symptoms. He noted the latter group may also have antibodies to protect them from future infection, although he pointed out it’s still unknown how much protection people get from previous exposure to the new coronavirus.

Yealy further said the majority of the deaths among UPMC patients involved people over 80, with many being nursing home residents.

Another speaker, Dr. Rachel Sackrowitz, the chief medical officer for UPMC’s intensive care units, said 234 COVID-19 patients have recovered and been discharged from UPMC hospitals. “This is very good news. It means people are getting better and we’re all on the right track together.”

Yealy said only 2% percent of the UPMC system’s 5,500 beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients and the number of new COVID-19 patients is declining.

He cited that figure in explaining UPMC’s plans to quickly increase its volume of the non-emergency surgeries that were largely banned to conserve beds and supplies for COVID-19 patients. The ban is now being eased as the volume of COVID-19 patients falls short of worst-case predictions.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/u ... 8NN4NBDHfs

[ex-khobar Andy]

Roche announced that its test is 100% accurate at detecting coronavirus antibodies and 99.8% accurate at ruling out the presence of those antibodies, meaning only one in 500 tests will get a false positive. Antibody tests use blood samples to assess whether a person had been previously infected, so they’re useful to determine the true spread of coronavirus.

From https://qz.com/1850518/roches-new-coron ... -accurate/

If true, and I have not read the original report, this is very good news.

[Scooter]

[Scooter]

[Joe Guy]

There are a lot more people who don’t have covid than people who do have it so it can’t be as serious as we’ve been told! I’m going to throw away my mask....

[MajGenl.Meade]

Did you read the statements from the doctors at UPMC in Pittsburgh? COVID-19 isn't as bad as the media would have you believe . . . the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% — far lower than the mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the pandemic

'

Only you (and possibly Donald Trump) (oh and wesw) (or lib) could be dim enough not to have seen (a) that the media didn't and still does not create infection/death rate models but report what "doctors" say and (b) that it has been known and broadcast for weeks if not months by the media that the people who do make these models have been saying exactly the same thing as "the doctors from UPMC".

In fact, politicians of both parties, movie stars, scientists, doctors, pundits, my dead grandmother and even the pet cat have recognized this unremarkable fact.

Yes, we can all see without your coo-gosh-wow, patronizing, rabbit-from-a-hat production of nothing that the Johns Hopkins reported death rate of 218 per 1 million population indicates (at the present time) a possible death total of 73,000 assuming all things remain equal, which they don't.

[Bicycle Bill]

-"BB"-

[Econoline]

A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% — far lower than the mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the pandemic.

(U.S. population ≈328,000,000) x (~0.70 for "herd immunity") ≈229,600,000 cases x 0.0025 ≈574,000 deaths.