2024 Presidential polls and projections

[Scooter]

Harris 262
Trump 241
Ties 35

[Scooter]

Harris 262
Trump 260
Ties 16

[Burning Petard]

Interesting option piece by Rachael Maddow in the NY Times today speculating about the potential of states that are dominated by GOP office holders to refuse to certify election results next november. In states like Georgia, the rules now encourage this to happen without any factual evidence.

snailgate

[Scooter]

Harris 284
Trump 254

[Crackpot]

So is Fla softening since they are now getting trump ads?

[Scooter]

Florida may render some surprises. Anna Paulina Looney Tunes is trailing in her district.

Days after Whitney Fox won her Democratic Primary, a poll conducted for Florida Politics shows her leading U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

St. Pete Polls found almost 48% of likely voters plan to support Fox, while just over 44% intend to vote for Luna.

The same poll found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump 51% to 46% within the Pinellas County district, and found Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, 49% to 46%.

In 2022, Luna won her seat over Eric Lynn with more than 53% of the vote, with the Democrat under 45%. The same election, more than 56% of voters in the district supported Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s re-election and more than 58% backed Gov. Ron DeSantis for a second term.

About 53% of voters in the district supported Trump for President in 2020 against Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. But the latest poll suggests Pinellas voters may swing back to the left in a big way.

[Sue U]

My daughter is considering changing her voter registration to FL this week now that she's expecting to be living there permanently, but has to get a Florida driver's license first. So one more D vote in Palm Beach County for the general election.

[BoSoxGal]

Where did you go wrong that you raised a kid who wants to live in FLORIDUH?


Just kidding. I love the beach, too.

[Bicycle Bill]

Went to a corn roast/rally last night for the Democratic incumbent running for re-election to Wisconsin's 32nd State Senate district, and he had several other Democratic candidates running for various other state and federal positions, incumbents and challengers alike, onstage with him.   I couldn't help noticing that many of these positions are either currently held by or being sought by women, and the term 'reproductive rights' (not just abortion) was used frequently by the various speakers — and also that none of the candidates are what I would classify as 'old' ... in their 40s or early 50s, tops.   (although there's a caveat — I'm almost 70 myself, so just about everybody looks like a young whippersnapper to me!)

Just wondering if more women are getting involved (and getting elected) because of the Republican focus on restricting abortion rights, which motivates more female involvement on both sides of the ballot box.  Could be that if the party of MAGA finds themselves floundering under the flood of a blue wave this November, they will have no one to blame but themselves for so fervently stirring up the opposition.

Needless to say, I'm starting to have more hope for putting this country back on an even keel after heeling over so far to starboard.

-"BB"-

[Sue U]

Where did you go wrong that you raised a kid who wants to live in FLORIDUH?


Just kidding. I love the beach, too.

I know, right? When she was picking schools her top choices were in Oregon and Florida, and Florida won out largely because year-round beach 10 minutes from campus. But I can't complain, she's got a 3.9 average and now has a part-time job and a boyfriend as well. I'm considering this a successful launch.

[BoSoxGal]

Went to a corn roast/rally last night for the Democratic incumbent running for re-election to Wisconsin's 32nd State Senate district, and he had several other Democratic candidates running for various other state and federal positions, incumbents and challengers alike, onstage with him.   I couldn't help noticing that many of these positions are either currently held by or being sought by women, and the term 'reproductive rights' (not just abortion) was used frequently by the various speakers — and also that none of the candidates are what I would classify as 'old' ... in their 40s or early 50s, tops.   (although there's a caveat — I'm almost 70 myself, so just about everybody looks like a young whippersnapper to me!)

Just wondering if more women are getting involved (and getting elected) because of the Republican focus on restricting abortion rights, which motivates more female involvement on both sides of the ballot box.  Could be that if the party of MAGA finds themselves floundering under the flood of a blue wave this November, they will have no one to blame but themselves for so fervently stirring up the opposition.

Needless to say, I'm starting to have more hope for putting this country back on an even keel after heeling over so far to starboard.

-"BB"-

Women have been organizing and recruiting other women to run for public office in larger numbers every year since the Women's March in 2017 - at all levels of government. Definitely the Dobbs decision has increased the urgency that women, and men who respect women, are feeling about addressing the gender disparity in US politics. We are very far behind dozens of other countries in this regard: https://www.statista.com/topics/10417/w ... in-the-us/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/244 ... gap-index/

It's embarrassing to see some of the countries which are ahead of USA on gender parity.

It's not the guys v the girls, but it is definitely well past time for America to embrace women in leadership and if it has to be a fight, we are going to win it.

[Scooter]

Harris 292
Trump 230
Ties 16

[Scooter]

Harris 292
Trump 246

[Sue U]

Oh I don't think those 16 NC electors are going to Trump; I expect a good chunk of the state's GOP voters to stay home, on account of their gross candidate for governor, who BTW is getting shellacked in the polls by the Dem nominee. I'm close to betting money that the 11 AZ electors will end up being pledged to Harris as well.

[Crackpot]

In my county which has been considered the home of the Reagan republicans in my state and has a tendency to lean red (if not stand pretty firmly red) I have noticed a marked drop in the Trump signage being displayed. Some of the houses that litter their yards with political signs have the big guys sign suspiciously missing.

[Scooter]

Harris 273
Trump 246
Ties 19

[Scooter]

Harris 276
Trump 230
Ties 32

[BoSoxGal]

Kamala visited the Penzey’s store in Pittsburgh and this happened:

[Scooter]

Harris 257
Trump 230
Ties 51

[Scooter]

Harris 292
Trump 246