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What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:20 am
by Long Run
There are two basic things that come out of his success (and moderation and bipartisan-ship, per se are not one of them). First, the better, more skilled politician will almost always win, all things being somewhat close to equal. Obama was much the better campaigning candidate of his two foes (both of whom were moderate and had deserved reputations for working across the political aisle). For all his flaws, GWB was an effective campaigner. Similarly, Christie has a no-BS kind of appeal, though I imagine like most pols, his personality could wear thin after awhile.

Second, when politicians do a good job, they get reelected (gerrymandered incumbents are the exception and don't have to do a particularly good job). Ideologies mean a lot less. To actually get things done usually requires some level of working with the other side and moderating what is acceptable; that is part of being an effective politician. Of course, the trick in trying to win an office for the first time is to be an effective campaigner that looks like he or she will be competent at the job. But then there has to be follow through on that perception. If enough things go right, then combined with political skills, an incumbent should win easily as Christie did.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:49 am
by Lord Jim
I think it may go a bit beyond that...

I think what Christie brings to the table is an ability that we haven't really seen in a major political figure since Ronald Reagan...(I don't mean to make too much of this analogy; Chris Christie is no Gipper; no one is)

But he does seem to have Mr. Reagan's talent in this respect:

An ability to attract folks to support him who even though they may disagree with him on a wide range of specific policy issues, vote for him because they see qualities in him that they find appealing and trustworthy about him as a person...

We could do a helluva lot worse than nominating a guy with that skill in 2016...

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 2:01 pm
by rubato
All it shows is that EVERYONE loves the Orcas at Sea World.


yrs,
rubato




Did he ever get below 300lbs? (that's 21 stone for those following in the English colonies and home island)

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 3:02 pm
by Big RR
Jim--I think the thing you're ignoring here is that Christies ran essentially unopposed; the dems did not manage much of a challenge against him , putting up a weak candidate who could neither attract attention nor raise money. This is becoming a disturbing trend in many areas, especially the northeast; hell, the NYC mayor often runs the same sort of campaign.

I also wouldn't count my chickens with him as a presidential candidate; the guy has a tendency to explode and put his foot in his mouth again and again. Yes, he has occasionally shown a willingness, even a talent, to reach across the aisle and work with the loyal opposition, but he also has a tendency to bully people to get his way, and has shown that tendency again and again. This might play well in some areas, like NJ, but I don't think it will play well nationwide. He may try a run for president, but I predict his campaign will self-destruct much as Rudy Giuliani's did. the repubs can do far worse than nominate Christie in 2016, but they also can do much, much better.

Rubato--there's plenty to attack Christie for on the political side, why make any comment at all about his weight?

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 3:12 pm
by Lord Jim
there's plenty to attack Christie for on the political side, why make any comment at all about his weight?
Especially since he's lost about 50 pounds...

He's still a ways to go, but give the guy some credit...

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:08 pm
by Big RR
Jim--even if he gained 50 pounds, so what? Why revert to schoolyard name calling instead of pointing out problems with his tenure as governor or his politics? It's a lousy cheap shot that affects nothing.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:13 pm
by Lord Jim
It's a lousy cheap shot that affects nothing.
And considering the source, you were expecting something else?... :)

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 5:09 pm
by Joe Guy
I think Christie will make the presidential race interesting. Time will tell whether he will self destruct (with a little help from the opposition).
It's a lousy cheap shot that affects nothing.
The rubester is reminding us how accurate he is when he says that he only responds to negativity and is never the one who starts it.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:14 pm
by dgs49
Keep in mind the mission of the Fourth Estate. Every time a Republican gains some favorable public attention they mount a full-press to denigrate him. He has all of the qualities one wants in a true leader, including the tendency to bully people with whom he disagrees when the situation calls for it.

After what has happened in the last two election cycles, the later one announces for the presidency the better it is.

None of the major Republican candidates of the last two presidential primaries would have been half as bad as Barry. If he were white he would be well on his way to impeachment.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:36 pm
by Big RR
[quoteHe has all of the qualities one wants in a true leader, including the tendency to bully people with whom he disagrees when the situation calls for it.
][/quote]

Perhaps, but most of the time I've seen him bully people when the situation didn't call for it. E.g., not liking a question at a public meeting where people are encouraged to ask questions is not a situation calling for the bullying of the questioner, but I've read accounts of that several times, and personally witnessed it once when he demanded the police bring the questioner up to the stage so he could berate him. That might be what you want in a "true leader", but not what I do.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 9:04 pm
by Sue U
As a lifelong Jerseyite with a front-row seat to state politics, let me say this:

Chris Christie's reelection says virtually nothing about politics in general or even Chris Christie in particular. His "success" can be attributed mostly to sheer luck: he was lucky enough to run the first time against Jon Corzine, who had proven to be an inept administrator and ran what could be charitably called a lackluster reelection campaign. Moreover, he was riding the burgeoning 2009 Tea-Party anti-Obama (i.e., anti-Democrat) backlash. Even so, he only managed to get 48% of the vote. Corzine arguably lost due to the independent candidacy of former state DEP head Chris Daggett, who ran on an environmentalist (effectively, Green) platform and was endorsed by the Sierra Club and the Star Ledger group (the state's largest newspaper); he took about 6% of the vote (he had been polling as high as 20% leading up to the election). A lot of Democrats (possibly even me, but I wouldn't admit it if I did) voted for Daggett (who has historically been a Republican).

Christie's first term was generally a policy disaster. He picked unnecessary fights with the courts, the legislature, the teachers' union and the state employees' union. He canceled a major federally-funded infrastructure project to expand commuter rail access to NYC and lost out on hundreds of millions of dollars in federal educational grant money by failing to file the paperwork. He has no signature issue or even policy initiative he can point to as his, and he blusters and bullies and blames everyone else for his leadership shortcomings. If he had to run for reelection on his record, there would be absolutely nothing to show.

However, he got lucky again with Hurricane Sandy. To the extent he had any reelection campaign theme at all, it was entirely "I was governor during Sandy and hardly anyone died." Other than that, he was virtually invisible during the campaign; obviously somebody had the sense to recognize that the less said, the better. Adding to his good fortune, the Democrats are suffering from a severe lack of candidates with statewide recognition since Cory Booker decided to run for Senate rather than Governor, and the political infighting between North and South factions of the party (as well as within several northern counties themselves) has been a drag on effective party organization.

Christie is actually a terrible campaigner and, as Big RR noted, is always ready to be a total dick when challenged in an uncontrolled environment. And, as BigRR also noted, the closest comparison to be made is with Rudy Giuliani, on numerous levels. I doubt Christie could hold up to the rigors and scrutiny of a presidential campaign.

Please please please make him the GOP nominee in 2016!

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:02 pm
by Big RR
Interesting you mention Booker, Sue. I think that would have been an interesting matchup because the men are two sides of the same coin--people short on real achievement and heavy on making themselves the center of attention. Booker honestly got very little done in Newark but he did put together big press stunts (remember the living on food stamps one?) to get his face in the news. and in the meantime Newark and its school system continues to crumble. If he and Christie are the best NJ has to offer, maybe it really is time to move.

Personally, I think there are two types of politicians, those who want to really do something for the people, and those who just want to get power for no real reason than seeing themselves as having it. Christie and Booker, IMHO, are of the latter type; I really don't know many NJ politicians of the former type.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:27 pm
by Sue U
Yeah, I don't have a lot of love for Booker, either (I voted for Rush Holt in the primary), but in large part his administration was hobbled by the antipathy of the Essex County Democrats (Sharpe James Division), growing out of the 2002 mayoral race and earlier (see the documentary film Street Fight about the campaign, which is really what made him a "star" and media darling). Booker had a lot of guts, but didn't have the backing of the powerful local party machine and had only lukewarm support in the state organization. To the extent that politics is theater, I think Booker handles that really well; to the extent it requires Machiavellian strategizing and extended trench warfare to achieve policy goals, not so much.

ETA:
Big RR wrote:Personally, I think there are two types of politicians, those who want to really do something for the people, and those who just want to get power for no real reason than seeing themselves as having it. Christie and Booker, IMHO, are of the latter type; I really don't know many NJ politicians of the former type.
Oh, I think there are actually a lot of genuine public servants in both the state Assembly and Senate and in the congressional delegation, too. (And not even all of them are Democrats 8-) .)

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:31 pm
by dgs49
Surely, Sue, you can acknowledge that your capsule summary of Christie's first term is a little bit biased. "...picked unnecessary fights with..." government employees unions who are bankrupting the state?

Really. No one who is not feeding at the government trough could characterize his efforts that way.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:38 pm
by Lord Jim
No one who is not feeding at the government trough could characterize his efforts that way.
Now Dave, that's not fair...

Sue is a personal injury lawyer...

That's an entirely different sort of societal parasite... 8-)

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:30 pm
by Sue U
dgs49 wrote:government employees unions who are bankrupting the state?
And your proof for the allegation is ..... ?

It's not the public employees who are creating shortfalls in pension funding -- that's mismanagement by the administration going back to Christie Whitman, who paid for tax cuts and a "balanced budget" by issuing pension-funding bonds (which most financial analysts call a "gimmick"). Guess what happens when the bottom drops out of the financial markets? And even if it were true that public employee benefits are too costly, good-faith bargaining gets results without having to launch a war on labor rights. There was absolutely no need to pick a year-plus-long fight with CWA other than Christie's need for political theater to show "how tough he is on unions" for the benefit of his campaign contributors and his broader political ambitions.

Oh, and BTW:

Christie Misrepresents State Workers’ Contract


Posted on February 28, 2011

Chris Christie is misrepresenting the facts about New Jersey union contract negotiations under his predecessor.

Christie has been battling state unions since becoming New Jersey governor in 2010. On CBS’ "Face the Nation" Feb. 27, he exaggerated the generosity of contract terms negotiated (and renegotiated) by Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine’s administration. He also misquoted Corzine’s comments at a state worker rally.

Christie and host Bob Schieffer discussed the budget showdown in Wisconsin and whether state workers had the right to collective bargaining.

Schieffer: Well, is that good or bad for New Jersey? Do you think they ought to have the right in New Jersey to collective bargaining?

Christie: What I’ve said in New Jersey is, as long as it’s fair and reasonable collective bargaining. You know, we can’t have what we’ve had before. You know, Bob, public sector workers, state workers in New Jersey, this past year, were working under a contract from my predecessor Jon Corzine, got 7 percent salary increases in a zero percent inflation world. I don’t think the people who are paying the bills think that’s the result of fair adversarial collective bargaining. They want someone in the room representing the taxpayers. And that’s what I’ll be this June, when that contract expires.

We take no position on whether the contract negotiated by Corzine was fair to taxpayers. It is misleading, however, to say that state workers "got 7 percent salary increases" from the Corzine administration.

The four-year contract, which took effect July 1, 2007, and expires June 30, 2011, provided for salary increases every July from 2007 through 2011: 3 percent in each of the first two years and 3.5 percent in the last two years. That contract, the New York Times reported at the time, also contained concessions made by the unions. It raised the retirement age for new state workers, required all state workers for the first time to pay a portion of their health care costs, and also increased state workers’ pension contributions. In that pre-recession era, the Times called it a "political victory" for Corzine in his attempts to reduce health care and pension costs.

So, how could Christie — who defeated Corzine in the 2009 election — claim that workers got 7 percent salary increases?

Well, as the Associated Press later reported, Corzine renegotiated that contract in 2009 and deferred the scheduled 3.5 percent salary increase due in July 2009 until January 2011. In addition to the 18-month salary deferral, the union "took unpaid furlough days in exchange for a no-layoff pledge through December 2010." Although the changes saved the state money, New Jersey had to pay a 3.5 percent salary increase in July 2010 and then another 3.5 percent in January 2011 — a two-step salary hike that raised pay by 7 percent in a single fiscal year, giving Christie a talking point he has used before.

The GOP governor also made the claim that state workers "got 7 percent salary increases in a zero percent inflation world." It is true that when Corzine renegotiated the contract in 2009 the consumer price index — the standard measure for inflation — declined that year by 0.4 percent. But it did increase in the other three years of the contract by 2.8 percent in 2007, 3.8 percent in 2008 and 1.6 percent in 2010.

Lastly, Christie misquotes a statement attributed to Corzine at a state worker rally in 2006.

Christie: My predecessor, Governor Corzine, stood on the front steps of the Capitol at a public sector union rally and said, “I’ll fight to get you a good contract.”

Did Corzine really say that? We could not find that quote in Nexis, the newspaper database, but we found one that was somewhat similar. Paul Mulshine, a conservative columnist for the Star-Ledger, quoted Corzine as saying more than once, "We will fight for a fair contract!"

But promising state workers a "fair contract" is not necessarily the same thing as promising them a "good contract." After all, fair — as defined by Merriam-Webster — means "marked by impartiality and honesty : free from self-interest, prejudice, or favoritism," or "free from bias, dishonesty, or injustice," as defined by dictionary.com.
http://www.factcheck.org/2011/02/christ ... -contract/

As for Christie's supposed record of "success," the claims he has made have been proven to be false:
Spinning Gov. Chris Christie’s Greatest Hits

Posted on May 21, 2012

A TV ad in support of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie supplies some misleading information about the governor’s record. The ad praises Christie and unnamed “reformers from both sides” for:

“Creating jobs.” But the state has added only 37,100 jobs since he took office in January 2010. New Jersey and national unemployment rates were identical (9.7 percent) when Christie became governor. The state’s unemployment rate is now 9.1 percent — a full percentage point higher than the national average and fifth highest among all states.

Putting “more money in our classrooms.” That’s false. Christie cut direct state aid for K-to-12 programs when he took office by $1 billion — from $8 billion in fiscal year 2010 to $7 billion in fiscal year 2011. He proposes to spend $7.8 billion in fiscal year 2013, but that’s still less than the 2010 funding level.

Overhauling the state’s pension system that “saved our pensions.” But it may be premature to declare victory. Christie last year signed a law that required public employees to pay more into the pension system and suspended cost of living increases for retirees. But four months later, the state disclosed in bond documents that its unfunded pension liabilities — which dropped after the law was signed — are expected to rise again because the state is underfunding the system.
More: http://www.factcheck.org/2012/05/spinni ... test-hits/

Oh and as far as unemployment goes, while New Jersey had performed at or better than the national average since 2000, since Christie took office the state has lagged behind the national average and that gap has widened significantly. Our neighboring states (New York, Pennsylvania and Delaware) have all significantly outperformed both New Jersey and the national average in lowering unemployment rates.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:59 pm
by Big RR
Oh, I think there are actually a lot of genuine public servants in both the state Assembly and Senate and in the congressional delegation, too. (And not even all of them are Democrats 8-) .)
You're probably right; sadly those are the ones who are working too hard to play games and try and get all the credit and press coverage like the power hungry, self-aggrandizing ones.

As for Booker and the Senate, it was just another election in which I held my nose and voted for the lesser of the two evils, but if Lonnigan weren't so bad, I might well have skipped the election altogether or wrote in a name. We'll see how he'll do in the senate; I don't have high hopes, but anything can happen.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:21 pm
by Lord Jim
If he were white he would be well on his way to impeachment.
Dave, just what exactly is it that you think Obama has done that would get him impeached if "he were white"?

I'm not asking what you think he deserves to be impeached for, (given your extremely expansive view of what the Constitution prohibits government from doing, I assume that you probably think that every President since William McKinley "deserved" to be impeached.) but rather what it is you believe he has done that would actually have stirred the political system to actively pursue his impeachment...(whether he was white, black, or purple with pink polka dots...)

I fully supported Clinton's impeachment; but Clinton had committed perjury, suborned perjury, and obstructed justice...

Nixon certainly would have deserved (and received) impeachment if he had not resigned; he engaged in all manner of criminal behavior...

And I'm not saying that the only grounds for impeachment would be if a President actually commits a criminal offense, (for example, suppose we had a President who just refused to do his job; say he just spent all his time flying all over the world on Air Force One with a bunch groupies...or speaking purely hypothetically, say we had a President who was caught smoking crack on videotape, and his explanation was that he had done it in a drunken stupor...not sure I'd want to trust the nuclear launch codes to a fella like that...)

So I can imagine circumstances under which a President could get himself impeached, even without any prosecutable criminal violation of the law...

But I'd like to hear from you just what it is specifically that you think Obama has done that would get serious political support on The Hill for his impeachment, (if he were white, of course...) because frankly I just don't see it....

He's done some things I agree with, but overall I'd say he's done a pretty piss poor job, (and with the Syrian Fiasco and the ham handed handling of all the problems related to Obamacare, he seems to be getting worse...)

But just not being particularly good at the job doesn't get you impeached...(if it did, Jimmy Carter would have been booted out within the first two years of his Presidency)

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:45 pm
by Joe Guy
You just don't get it Jim!

Obama is protected from impeachment because he is black. If a movement to impeach him were to start, Al Sharpton would claim Raciscm and Gloria Allread would run to his aid and file a lawsuit.

They would easily win the lawsuit with an added claim of emotional damages to Obama and tack on another 4 years to his presidency as compensation.

Re: What Christie's easy reelection means

Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 5:01 pm
by Lord Jim
Well of course Joe, all of that goes without saying...

I'm just a little unclear on what it is that Dave thinks Obama would be impeached for...

(If his black skin weren't protecting him, of course.... 8-) )