The ACA Is Not Just Surging; It Is Roaring Ahead

[Andrew D]

As reported by Politico, "About 26,000 people selected a health plan [through the federal exchange] during October and about 100,000 people did so in November," whereas "About 29,000 people signed up for health insurance through HealthCare.gov on Sunday and Monday," December 1 and 2.

Consider the import of those numbers.

During October, signups through HealthCare.gov averaged just under 840 per day.

During November, signups through HealthCare.gov averaged more than 3,300 per day -- almost four times the average in October.

On the first two days of December, signups through HealthCare.gov averaged 14,500 per day -- well over four times the average in November.

If the December average holds for the rest of the month, the total number of people signed up by December 31 will be about 575,500.

If the January average is four times the December average -- 58,000 per day, mirroring the gains made from October to November and from November to December -- the total number of people signed up by January 31 will be about 2,373,500.

If the February average is four times the January average -- 232,000 per day -- the total number of people signed up by February 28 will be about 8,869,500.

If the March average is four times the February average -- 928,000 per day -- the total number of people signed up by March 31 will be about 37,637,500.

There is, of course, no reason to expect that the numbers will continue to increase by such leaps and bounds. But they do not need to.

Suppose instead of going up by four times from December to January, by four times from January to February, and by four times from February to March, the daily average only doubles from one month to the next. The total number of people signed up by January 31 will be about 1,474,500. The total number of people signed up by February 28 will be about 3,098,500. And the total number of people signed up by March 31 will be about 6,694,500.

Suddenly, that 7,000,000 prediction is not looking too bad ....

[rubato]

I think 7M was a goal more than a prediction. But so far progress is very good. it's difficult to get good numbers but it is closing in on 2M for the exchanges and expanded Medicaid (and the people now able to get Medicaid in states refusing the expanded version) which is excellent.

What the opponents of better social policy need to learn to do is to measure the output of government by its effects.

yrs,
rubato