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Big Setback For Putin In Ukraine...

Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:14 pm
by Lord Jim
His corrupt thug buddy gets sent packing:
Ukraine Parliament Moves Swiftly to Dismantle President’s Government

KIEV, Ukraine — A day after President Viktor F. Yanukovych fled the Ukrainian capital and was removed from power by a unanimous vote in Parliament, lawmakers moved swiftly on Sunday to dismantle the remaining vestiges of his government by firing top cabinet members, including the foreign minister.

With Parliament, led by the speaker, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, firmly in control of the federal government — if not yet the country as a whole — lawmakers began an emergency session on Sunday by adopting a law restoring state ownership of Mr. Yanukovych’s opulent presidential palace, which he had privatized.

Parliament voted to grant Mr. Turchynov authority to carry out the duties of the president of Ukraine, adding to his authority to lead the government that lawmakers had approved on Saturday.

Beyond that, Parliament did not take any further action to appoint interim leaders, but speculation about an immediate major role for the freed former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, was squashed on Saturday afternoon when she issued a statement asking not to be considered for the post again.

Depending on her health, Ms. Tymoshenko, who has complained of chronic back problems since she was jailed in 2011, may run for president in elections now scheduled for May 25, and many of her supporters are eager to build a campaign. In a sign of her still formidable political influence, Ms. Tymoshenko spoke by telephone on Sunday with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, as well as with Stefan Fule, a top European Union official, and with Senators John McCain, Republican of Arizona, Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, and Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut. Ms. Tymoshenko also met with ambassadors from the United States and European Union countries.

Critics, including a small crowd of demonstrators gathered outside the Parliament, said Ms. Tymoshenko should bow out, making way for a new generation of leaders.

Ms. Tymoshenko, long Mr. Yanukovych’s political rival, was released on Saturday from a prison hospital in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and quickly made her way here to Kiev, the capital, where she appeared briefly in a wheelchair in Independence Square. Ms. Tymoshenko was jailed by Mr. Yanukovych after losing the presidential election in 2010. Many in Ukraine and the West believe that her conviction was politically motivated.

Andriy Shevchenko, a member of Parliament and the leader of Ms. Tymoshenko’s Fatherland Party, said that she would ultimately decide what role she envisioned for herself, based on her health. “It really depends on whether she wants to run our not,” Mr. Shevchenko said in an interview. “I think she has enough strength to be active in politics.”

In Kiev, Ms. Tymoshenko received an enthusiastic but not overly exuberant reception from the crowd in Independence Square. The response demonstrated her continued popularity and status as a symbol of opposition to Mr. Yanukovych but also underscored the apprehension that many Ukranians feel toward politicians deeply connected to a government with a long history of corruption and mismanagement.

Mr. Yanukovych, meanwhile, whose whereabouts remained unknown, appeared to be losing the support of even his former allies. On Sunday, Mr. Yanukovich’s Party of Regions, which days ago enjoyed a majority in Parliament, released a statement blaming him for the recent violence.

In the statement, the party said it strongly condemned what it called “criminal decrees,” which resulted in “human casualties, emptied coffers, huge debts and shame in the eyes of the Ukrainian people and the whole world.”

“All attempts to convince the president to act differently were ignored,” the statement said. “The party was virtually the hostage of one corrupt family.”

While Parliament has dismissed a number of senior officials, the defense minister, Pavlo Lebedev told Ukraine’s Channel 24 that he intended to remain in his post, and the military issued statements that seemed to offer assurance that no steps would be taken to interfere with the provisional government.

A statement posted on the Defense Ministry website on Saturday, after Mr. Yanukovych’s departure, and attributed to the ministry and the military, reaffirmed the military’s commitment to the Constitution and expressed sorrow over the deaths in Kiev last week.

“Please be assured that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot and will not be involved in any political conflict,” the statement said.

In a separate statement, the military chief of staff, Yuriy Ilyin, who was just recently appointed by Mr. Yanukovych, said, “As an officer I see no other way than to serve the Ukrainian people honestly and assure that I have not and won’t give any criminal orders.”

It is not yet clear whether Ukrainians in the southern and eastern regions of the country, which host the bulk of the country’s industrial infrastructure as well as the heaviest concentration of pro-Russian sentiment, would resist the change of government in Kiev. In several cities, including Donetsk and Kharkiv, pro-Russian demonstrators took to the streets on Sunday, and there have been scattered reports of clashes between pro-Russian Ukrainians and supporters of the protests in Kiev.

Several lawmakers expressed rising alarm over Ukraine’s perilous economic situation. The Russian government in December had come to Mr. Yanukovych’s rescue with a $15 billion bailout and an offer of cheaper prices on natural gas.

A $2 billion installment of that aid was canceled as part of a deal reached on Friday between Mr. Yanukovych and opposition leaders. Western officials have said they hope to offer assistance, but it is unclear how quickly that help might arrive.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/world ... .html?_r=0

It will be interesting to see what Putin's next moves will be...He will certainly not sit idly by...

I think large scale direct military action to re-install Yanukovych won't be on the cards, but I expect a major economic squeeze...

It's also possible that they might intervene militarily in a more limited way (as they did in Georgia) in parts of eastern Ukraine where a large section of the population is more pro-Russian, and support a separatist strategy, and perhaps establish a de facto partition of the country with a pro-Russian rump government installed in those regions.

It's critical that the West, (the US and major European powers) act swiftly and robustly to counter any Russian economic measures, and also to work with the new regime to help it on a reform path (which includes a role for their opponents) that will undermine Russian political influence and meddling.

Re: Big Setback For Putin In Ukraine...

Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:01 pm
by Crackpot
The problem is the natural gas pipline is under areas where Putin isn't popular. Any kind of direct intervention will have blowback beyond what Putin is willing to risk. Whatever the action he takes it will be something that won't be immediately clear. Direct action just isn't in the cards at the moment

Re: Big Setback For Putin In Ukraine...

Posted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:46 pm
by Gob
Lord Jim wrote: It will be interesting to see what Putin's next moves will be...He will certainly not sit idly by...

I think large scale direct military action to re-install Yanukovych won't be on the cards, but I expect a major economic squeeze...
Seeing as the furore was sparked by the choice between Russian Federation or EU membership, I should imagine the EU will step in to counter that.