It's also possible that they might intervene militarily in a more limited way (as they did in Georgia) in parts of eastern Ukraine where a large section of the population is more pro-Russian, and support a separatist strategy, and perhaps establish a de facto partition of the country with a pro-Russian rump government installed in those regions.
http://www.concordmonitor.com/news/nati ... s-escalateRussia occupies Crimea as Ukraine tensions escalate
Associated Press
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Russian troops took over the strategic Crimean peninsula in Ukraine yesterday without firing a shot. The newly installed government in Kiev was powerless to react, and despite calls by President Obama for Russia to pull back its forces, Western governments had few options to counter Russia’s military moves.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sought and quickly got his parliament’s approval to use its military to protect Russia’s interests across Ukraine. But while sometimes-violent pro-Russian protests broke yesterday in a number of Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine, Moscow’s immediate focus appeared to be Crimea.
Tensions increased when Ukraine’s acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, made a late-night announcement that he had ordered the country’s armed forces to be at full readiness because of the threat of “potential aggression.”
Speaking live on Ukrainian TV, Turchynov said he had also ordered stepped up security at nuclear power plants, airports and other strategic infrastructure.
Ignoring Obama’s warning Friday that “there will be costs” if Russia intervenes militarily, Putin sharply raised the stakes in the conflict over Ukraine’s future evoking memories of Cold War brinkmanship.
After Russia’s parliament approved Putin’s motion, U.S. officials held a high-level meeting at the White House to review Russia’s military moves in Ukraine. The White House said Obama spoke with Putin by telephone for 90 minutes and expressed his “deep concern” about “Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
The White House said Obama told Putin that the United States is calling on Russia “to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine.”
A statement from the Kremlin said Putin emphasized to Obama the existence of “real threats” to the life and health of Russian citizens and compatriots who are in Ukrainian territory. The statement indicated that Russia might send its troops not only to Crimea but also to predominantly ethnic Russian regions of eastern Ukraine.
“Vladimir Putin emphasized that, in the case of a further spread in violence in eastern regions (of Ukraine) and Crimea, Russia maintains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population that lives there,” the Kremlin statement said.
And the situation grows more perilous:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... E820140302Ukraine mobilizes after Putin's 'declaration of war'
(Reuters) - Ukraine mobilized for war on Sunday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared he had the right to invade, creating the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.
"This is not a threat: this is actually the declaration of war to my country," said Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, head of a pro-Western government that took power when Russian ally Viktor Yanukovich fled last week.
Putin obtained permission from his parliament on Saturday to use military force to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine, spurning Western pleas not intervene.
Russian forces have already bloodlessly seized Crimea - an isolated Black Sea peninsula where Moscow has a naval base. On Sunday they surrounded several small Ukrainian military outposts there and demanded the Ukrainian troops disarm. Some refused, although no shots were fired.
Ukraine's security council ordered the general staff to immediately put all armed forces on highest alert, the council's secretary Andriy Parubiy announced.
The big question now of course is "Wlll Putin stop with Crimea, or use that as a base to move on the rest of eastern Ukraine"? and this part of the first article that I highlighted:
strongly suggests that the answer is the latter...A statement from the Kremlin said Putin emphasized to Obama the existence of “real threats” to the life and health of Russian citizens and compatriots who are in Ukrainian territory. The statement indicated that Russia might send its troops not only to Crimea but also to predominantly ethnic Russian regions of eastern Ukraine.
“Vladimir Putin emphasized that, in the case of a further spread in violence in eastern regions (of Ukraine) and Crimea, Russia maintains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population that lives there,” the Kremlin statement said.
Some thoughts about all of this...
First, at the risk of being accused of "yelling Hitler" I feel compelled to point out that this claim of "persecution" of ethnic nationals is precisely the same claim that Adolf Hitler used to justify the occupation of Czechoslovakia, and the attack on Poland.
And in the current case there is absolutely zero evidence to support the charge. There was no "civil unrest" or attacks taking place on ethnic Russian civilians. This was nothing but a fantasy cooked up to justify the lawless seizure of the territory of a neighboring sovereign country.
The only "unrest" was being orchestrated by Putin:
First he has armed masked agents, (either Russian special forces or ethnic Russian Ukrainians loyal to Moscow and acting on orders from the Kremlin) seize government buildings in Crimea. An area lightly defended by the Ukrainian military, and where by treaty agreement, (a treaty which the new Ukrainian government had already publicly pledged it would honor)...the Russians already had a major naval base presence to use as a staging ground for aggressive operations.
Then he has these stooges conduct further provocations, and cynically uses that as the excuse for a military occupation of the entire region. And now it looks quite likely that he may attempt a rinse and repeat for the whole of eastern Ukraine; manufactured "civil unrest" followed by occupation for the purpose of "protection"...
He has certainly laid the predicate for this....
I think that whether or not he goes on and attempts this depends in large measure not so much on the actions of The West, but more on how quickly the Ukrainian military can pull it's act together and make clear that they will fight, and that if he tries this, he will prevail only at a heavy price.
I don't believe Putin wants a full scale bloody war with Ukraine; I think he's too clever for that. Such a war would not be popular with a large part of his own population and thus undermine his position at home, while also raising exponentially the cost he and his country would suffer internationally, damaging his economy and further weakening his position.
I think Putin's strategy is to seize as much territory as he thinks he can get away with without a shooting war. I think he will go as far as he thinks he can without a large scale shooting confrontation with the Ukrainian military, and then call for negotiations. Then he'll let the situation settle down while he digests the territory he has taken and tries to turn the occupation into an internationally accepted fact, escaping significant international consequences, (just as he did in Georgia) Of course he's taken a calculated risk already, since he has invaded a sovereign country, and they would have a perfect right to respond, just based on what he's done so far.
What the totality of the Western response to all this should be is difficult to gauge at the moment since the situation remains fluid and it's not certain just how far he's going to go. The UN as an instrument for doing anything about this is obviously even more useless than usual, since Russia is a veto carrying Permanent Member of the Security Council.
At a minimum just based on what he has done so far, Russia should be kicked out of The G-8, which based on previous behavior should have been done a long time ago. This group is supposed to be an association of the world's most economically powerful democracies ; Russia was brought in when Yeltsin was President, largely to help bolster his prestige, encourage the development of democracy that was taking place in Russia at the time, and to give the Russian people a sense that they were still considered an important country, despite the collapse of the Soviet empire. Under Putin, Russia has completely reversed course, and no longer belongs in this group.
Other kinds of sanctions against the Russian state, some of it institutions and individuals are certainly appropriate, (and I think it's fair to say that the ill advised proposal to further reduce US military manpower is a dead issue; it already faced serious opposition on The Hill and in light of the latest Russian aggression, that opposition will grow to overwhelming, in both parties. In fact I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Administration withdraw the proposal; that would certainly send a good symbolic signal in the wake of what has happened.)
But the most important thing that needs to happen here, much more important than any specific measure that could be taken, is attitudinal; for the US and the rest of world to finally wake up and change the way we deal with Putin's Russia, and consider it as a state and regime...
Putin's Russia is certainly not an "ally" nor is it a "friend" or a "partner"....
It is an adversary, bordering on enemy....It is not a regime with whom you can conduct business on a normal or good faith basis...
It is a brutal, non-law based authoritarian dictatorship, with goals and objectives that are completely antithetical to western values and interests...
It is a regime dedicated to the support of thug-tyrants every where it can do so, and a regime which seeks to extinguish democracy and sovereignty in neighboring countries and returning them to the dictatorial vassal state condition they suffered under during the days of the USSR...
It is a rogue regime, an outlaw state, with zero respect for the rule of law and human rights, either internally or internationally...
And it needs to be treated accordingly...
And if at long last, this latest naked aggression causes the governments and peoples of the major western countries to finally wake up and confront these ugly realities about present day Russia, then at least some good will have come of this.