Plan B Forum

Polls for the Scottish referendum have dramatically narrowed ahead of the September 18 vote.

The No campaign took a six-point lead over the Yes campaign on September 10 when a Survation poll of 1,000 Scots found that 47.6 per cent intend to vote No compared with 42.4 per cent for Yes. When the 10 per cent who said they were still undecided were removed from the equation, the survey suggests that the Better Together campaign would win with a vote of 53 per cent over 47 per cent for the Yes group.

Lord Jim wrote: I have to admit to being somewhat puzzled by how well the support for independence is doing... If 40 plus per cent of the Scots are so keen for independence, then why does The Scottish National Party only have 6 out of 59 seats in The House Of Commons?

bigskygal wrote:Ireland's done reasonably well - isn't it likely Scotland may do just fine if independent?

Almost one pound in every four injected into the two state-backed banks by the Government has gone directly into the Irish economy, the two lenders' subsidiary accounts show.

Between 2009 and 2011, RBS made "capital contributions" totalling €9.13bn (£7.6bn) to its Dublin-headquartered subsidiary Ulster Bank Ireland. Over the same period, Lloyds transferred £6.41bn to its Irish operation, Bank of Scotland (Ireland), before dissolving the business.

The total – £14bn – amounts to more than a fifth of the £65bn UK taxpayers injected into RBS and Lloyds in 2008 and 2009, and is expected to rise further. Analysts estimate that RBS transferred another £2bn last year.

RBS and Lloyds used the funds to write off billions of pounds of debt loaned to Irish commercial property developers and households in the "Celtic Tiger" boom years.

After the bubble burst, Ireland's banks brought the country to its knees and forced the government into a €67.5bn (£56.5bn) international rescue, including £7bn from the UK Government. Since the financial crisis, Dublin has injected €80bn into its banks and nationalised or part-nationalised six of them.

TPFKA@W wrote:Ireland has a broken culture. All they do is drink. Seriously.
... " .

TPFKA@W wrote:All they do is drink. Seriously.

Sue U wrote:

TPFKA@W wrote:All they do is drink. Seriously.

Well, if you're gonna do it, you don't want to take half measures.

However, despite this potential political windfall, it's my understanding that most Conservatives in the UK ( and here as well; including myself) totally oppose Scottish Independence, because it's an idiotic idea that weakens the country, and benefits no one (least of all the Scots) in the long term.

TPFKA@W wrote:

Sue U wrote:

TPFKA@W wrote:All they do is drink. Seriously.

Well, if you're gonna do it, you don't want to take half measures.

I know some Irish youngsters (early 20's) and actually it is quite depressing. It is literally how they spend every free moment they have. They tell me it starts early, it's their culture and it's what the parents do and so forth. Every social function, every family function they drink until they are senseless.

It's insane.

Somehow, I'd bet many in Parliament (especially the conservatives) would have said this about the American colonies in 1776 as well, and that seemed to work out fairly well.

I usually do share a leaning toward anyone who wants to leave any association, even if some say it will work out disastrously

Scotland's largest banks and financial firms will abandon the country for Britain if Scots vote "Yes" to independence on Sept. 18. The news adds to fears that independence could prove to be an economic disaster for Scotland.

Here is the full list of companies that have confirmed plans to leave in the event of a breakup:

Lloyds Banking Group
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)
TSB
Clydesdale
Tesco Bank
Aegon
Standard Life

We will continue to update this list as the story develops so check back in with us for the latest news.

Elsewhere, The Lawyer reports that a leading Scottish law firm is already moving its money out of Scottish banks and the chairman of John Lewis warned that supermarket prices could rise if Scotland goes it alone. Perhaps most seriously for a future independent Scottish government Bob Dudley, the chief executive of BP, warned that a "yes" vote could impact North Sea oil investment plans:

The opportunities today are smaller and more challenging to develop than in the past ... Much of this activity requires fiscal support to be economic, and future long-term investments require fiscal stability and certainty ... As a major investor in Scotland – now and into the future – BP believes that the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom.

The decision by these firms to make their contingency plans public ahead of the vote shows how uncomfortable the industry has become with the prospect of a breakup of the U.K. It also shows just how close people are now expecting the vote to be.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/companie ... z3D7AdsP28

Would Scotland automatically be independent after the votes are counted?

The referendum on September 18 is a vote on whether Scotland chooses to be independent. But if the "yes" camp wins, the country isn't immediately independent. According to present plans, March 24, 2016 would be the key date. Various political and economic questions would have to be solved by then.

Would an independent Scotland still be a member of the European Union and NATO?

If Scotland were to secede from the UK, a new state would emerge in the spring of 2016, following a transitional phase. This new state would have to apply to join the EU. The same is true for NATO: Presumably, a new Scottish state would no longer be a part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after the transitional phase, but would have to apply for membership. All NATO member states must agree to accept a new applicant.

What does Scottish independence mean for Europe?

Many European states are worried about the referendum. In general, the Scots are viewed as more Europe-friendly than the rest of the UK, so Scotland's split from the UK would strengthen the EU skeptics' camp: If Britain holds a referendum on EU membership as planned in 2017, the four million missing votes from Scotland could be a crucial factor paving the way for a euroskeptic victory.[Well, one benefit for the rest of Britain at least.]

An independent Scotland could also impact independence movements in other countries. Spain and Belgium fear a rise of separatism, and in the United Kingdom, Scottish independence could foreshadow a similar move in the near future by Northern Ireland.

What would an independent Scotland's currency be?

The pound sterling would be Scotland's currency until March 2016. Past that date, London has categorically dismissed a currency union. Scotttish Prime Minister Alex Salmond announced plans to keep the pound as the primary currency all the same - if need be, without British permission. In that case, Scotland would not have a central bank and would not be in a position to print additional money.

Should Scotland join the EU, introducing the euro might well be a condition for membership. Accession candidates must first align their currency with the euro before formally adopting the single currency.

Creating a new currency is another option. Scotland already prints its own Scottish pound notes that are firmly aligned with the British pound. If need be, the government could devalue a currency of its own, and thus influence interest rates to plug potential holes in the budget.

What about the UK's national debt?

The government in London has already signaled it will assume responsibility for the complete national debt if Scotland votes for independence. After an interim phase, Scotland would then be expected to bear a "fair and proportionate share of the UK's current liabilities." Whether that share depends on economic performance or the share of the population is unclear - the former option would certainly be more favorable for Scotland.

http://www.dw.de/if-scotland-votes-yes- ... a-17915022