Plan B Forum

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... =MK0000202

I love that he's kicking off at "LibertyUniversity" - and I know a lot of the fundies would support him over Bush in a heartbeat.

Or is it out of the car?

As I look at the GOP field this time around, I see three real "clown car" candidates; people with positions so far out of the mainstream of American politics and/or personas so unappealing that they couldn't possibly win a general election:

In addition to Tail Gunner Ted, I would include Rand Paul and Ben Carson on that list...

Jeb, Marco, and any of a number of current GOP governors who are likely to get in could win the election, and thus do not deserve "clown car" status...

He is about center politically in the group of Repuglicans in the House and Senate; his number one issue is "Hate Obama" and that is their one guiding star as well.


yrs,
rubato

Cruz is almost universally despised by his GOP colleagues in the Senate; about the only ally he has there is Utah's Mike Lee...

One Republican Senator was quoted a while back saying, (the quote was anonymous, but it sounded to me like it was probably John McCain) "Ted Cruz is more disliked in the Senate Republican Caucus than Harry Reid"....

Now that's "disliked"....

The good thing about a Cruz candidacy, I hope, is that it will suck all the air -- and the money -- out of other far-right bids, and let the party have a clear choice between implacable right-wing insanity and a candidate willing to hear more moderate voices (even if only in his head).

ETA:

Oh, and someone buying domain names is a laff riot:

www.tedcruz.com

and

www.tedcruzforamerica.com

Hahahahahahahaha!

I hope, is that it will suck all the air -- and the money -- out of other far-right bids,

He's going to have some real problems with that, on two fronts:

Two likely candidates, (who I forgot about in my first post) Mike Huckabee (who's virtually certain to run) and Rick Santorum, (who I didn't think was really serious about mounting another campaign, but after a couple of interviews I've seen him do recently really sounds like he's planning to give it another go) will be coming at him hard for the "the world is only 6000 years old vote", especially in the critical Iowa Caucus...

Huckabee came out of nowhere to win Iowa in 2008, and Santorum won it in 2012. Both of them start there with substantial organizational advantages over Cruz. (Huckabee in particular I think represents a problem for Cruz; if you have a choice between a guy who supports the same "social conservative" values that you do, but is a nice guy rather than an asshole, why support the asshole? )

On the Radical/Randian Tea Party front, Cruz is going to have to contend with Paul. (the right-wing fundamentalists and the Tea Party types have some overlap, but they're not the exact same group.)

Paul's father also did well in Iowa (and New Hampshire) and developed a pretty substantial volunteer and donor list which obviously Rand will also have to give him a leg up over Cruz...

Plus Cruz has got the additional problem that there are two more candidates on top of these three who are demonstrating both "base" and "establishment" appeal...(Walker and Rubio)

Teddy's got a tough row to hoe to get a clear one-on-one shot at one of the establishment candidates for the nomination.

I love American politics....

Yes, as opposed to that simple and straight forward process unfolding in the UK...

You forgot Scott "lawful constitutionally protected protesters and pseudo state bloodthirsty murderers? Bah same difference" Walker.

Well, that's a little over the top in describing what he said...(and he's been walking it back and "clarifying" it since then...)

But I'll admit that what Walker said was kind of dopey, even if you evaluate fairly...

Walker has had some rhetorical stumbles, but the good news for him is that he's getting them out of the way early...

I think Walker's biggest mistake is that he assumed that because he had gotten a lot of national press attention during the recall vote in Wisconsin, that he was prepared for the spotlight of a national political campaign...

I also think he was unprepared for his poll numbers to be as good as they are as early as they are, and the kind of attention that would draw...

A few days ago he said that he thinks he's the "front runner" for the nomination...

HUGE rookie mistake...

You certainly don't want to claim to be the "front runner" at this point in the race, even if the polling shows that you are...(and when you look at the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally, it's a legitimate claim)

But Walker's a very bright guy, and I suspect he will learn from his mistakes...(maybe not, but that's what his record suggests)

The political landscape of Wisconsin is littered with the political bodies of those who have underestimated Scott Walker...(just ask the bosses of their public sector employee unions...)

Walker has enormous potential; his numbers are excellent, and he's showing big cross-over appeal with both the ideologues and the establishment...

He's certainly not a "clown car" candidate...

What he most needs right now is to bring on board some serious "old beard" long time political pols, (like a David Gergen or an Ed Rollins) and then he needs to listen to them so he can get down the concept of "message discipline" and be truly ready to play in The Big Leagues of Presidential Politics...

If he does that, he'll be a serious force to be reckoned with; he could get the nomination and quite possibly defeat Hillary in the general election...

If he doesn't do that, he'll be a flash in the pan and somebody ( Probably Jeb... who wryly observed after Walker said he was the "front runner," that "I don't see how you can be 'the front runner' before you're even running") will eat his lunch and leave him in the dust....

Lord Jim wrote:Yes, as opposed to that simple and straight forward process unfolding in the UK...

Hmm..

The UK election race started at the beginning of March and will end May 8 th.

How long will the US dog and pony show last?

The UK election race started at the beginning of March and will end May 8 th.

Oh come now...

The run up for this has been going on for well more than a year.... (more like two; at least)

From the rise of the Ukip, to the EU elections, and through the vote on Independence in Scotland, and through several by-elections...

Face it...

The British electoral process has become every bit as much an ongoing, never ending "soap opera" as ours here in The States....

It is nowhere near the same. For one, just looking at the amount of money being raised, and when it is being spent will show the difference. Looking at when the actual electioneering begins is another. There is nothing in the UK remotely resembling the US primary system, which begins, what, nine months or so before election day?

The GOP Iowa Caucus is going to be an interesting affair...

It's likely to be such a crowded field, that the "winner" could wind up with 12% of the vote...

If one candidate winds up with even 4 or 5 percent more than the rest of the field, he's going to look like the big winner...

The candidate with the most to lose there is Walker...

If he doesn't win Iowa, a bordering Midwest state after all the hype he's getting , he's going to look like a loser...

The candidate with the least to lose there is Jeb....

No one expects him to win Iowa; if he just has a decent showing he can move on to New Hampshire, where independent voters can participate in the primary and he'll do much better...(plus he'll have so much cash he won't have to be worried that one poor showing will dry him up financially)

Sue U wrote:Oh, and someone buying domain names is a laff riot:

www.tedcruz.com

and

www.tedcruzforamerica.com

Hahahahahahahaha!

Do we really want a politician in this century that fails to think far enough ahead to acquire his own name domain name before launching a political career?

Also too:
Ted Cruz's New Presidential Campaign Donation Website
Shares Security Certificate With Nigerian-Prince.com

I missed Sue's ETA links...

That is pretty funny...

Walker is cut from the same "us vs. them" cloth as Cruz is. Walker just has the sense to dab the froth off of his lips before he goes out in public. And that attitude has already prove to be hard to conceal. But even if he managed to keep from putting his foot in his mouth his record already has more than enough far right actions to successfull motivate the left and a fair portion of the middle against him.

The most broadly appealing republican I can think of at the moment is Rick Snyder but he is not ready for president yet especially since the Tea Party still has some wind in it's sails. One is because they hate him and two is the single moderate blemish on his record (right to work) was an effort to appease the tea party which worked about as any pandering to extremists. They gave him no credit while shredding the goodwill of his opposition. (Which he had a lot of at the time). This probably wouldn't be a problem with most candidates but one of his weaknesses and strengths is he's not a bullshitter. So he will either have to wait until enough time has passed to render his reversal minor (which will require finishing out his governorship) or the collapse of the tea party at which point he can drop the facade and call it the mistake it was.

Gob wrote:I love American politics....

About that clown car. Every choice we are asked to make at the polls -- regardless of political affiliation -- is crammed into this same vehicle. Why do you think they call our system "The Big Top?"

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