Plan B Forum

I think that's an important and legitimate question to ask, when we're talking about a country that now has the second largest GDP on the planet, (it wasn't so long ago that their GDP was smaller than Taiwan's....)

They send out a lot of mixed signals....

On the one hand, they do an enormous amount of saber rattling, (building a blue water fleet, and occasionally having some General publicly remind us that the West Coast of the United States is within range of their nuclear missiles....An American General who made similar public statements about Beijing would not only be immediately dismissed...he might be hospitalized)

On the other hand, they've taken on so much of our debt, they would seem to have a vested interest, paradoxically, in our success....

Are they motivated primarily by their old Marxist ideology, (that would seem unlikely) or by a more historic, authoritarian, "Middle Kingdomism", that should leave them as the center of a new sort of "empire'?

Personally, I think we can rule out the idea that they are trying to lead their country into being some sort of law based democracy...there's certainly been no evidence of that...

I think there's a very good chance that they really don't know what they're doing....

Though they try very hard to make it appear like they do.....

I suspect, despite their outward self confidence, they are very fearful of the future, and the forces they have unleashed... economic forces they thought they could use to increase their national wealth while maintaining total political control...

I really believe that at this point, they have no "strategic plan"....they're playing the game as it comes, with really only one idea in mind...

How to try and keep themselves in power.

I believe they are modernising, and becoming a manufacturing base. The fact that they are earning money hand over fist out of capitalist endeavour is not going to go unoticed there, it may be the breaking of the communist regime, but I hardly believe that the regime will go down without a fight. Once China's economy becomes totally enmeshed with that of the west, they will be as reliant on the west, as we are on the goods they produce.

The PRC has been quoted as saying that the 20th century was the American century and thay endevour to OWN the 21st.

I'm with Dales. PRC are going for the next global power.

I now regret that the Hatch chose to learn Japanese instead of Mandarin.

I believe that like all totalitarian regimes, it's number one priority is to maintain the tyranny....

And like all totalitarian regimes, though outwardly it gives the impression of stability, it is in fact, inherently unstable....and it is terrified of the idea of it's people actually beginning to assert themselves, which is why it must immediately crush even the slightest expression of independence.

This consumes so much of the regime's energy and focus, even though they may be aiming to become a global power, they are badly crippled in their efforts.

Like all totalitarian regimes, they sew the seeds of their own destruction. I believe their foraging into the big open capitalist world will only hasten that demise.

I agree that China wants to become the world's most powerful nation. I don't think that that is limited to the Communist government; I think that if China were to become a representative democracy, it would still want to become the world's most powerful nation. After all, it has one-sixth of the world's total population (more than four times the population of the U.S.), and, as Lord Jim points out, the world's second-largest GDP (more than half the U.S.'s).

China faces other problems besides those brought on buy its being a one-party dictatorship. And those other problems are more dangerous than the problems brought on by China's being a one-party dictatorship. And even if China becomes a representative democracy, those problems are not going away.

China faces separatist/autonomist movements, most famously in Tibet and East Turkestan (Xinjiang), and also in Macao. (From the PRC's perspective, Taiwan's government is a separatist/autonomist movement. Taiwan is more properly seen as at least a de facto state. It meets all four of the requirements in international law for nationhood. And, although this is not a legal requirement for nationhood, it is recognized as a nation by at least 22 nations and one non-national diplomatic entity (the Holy See).)

China faces an environmental catastrophe. Its air pollution is notorious, but its water is also badly polluted, and cleaning that up will be even harder than cleaning the air. As described here:

About one third of the industrial waste water and more than 90 percent of household sewage in China is released into rivers and lakes without being treated. Nearly 80 percent of China's cities (278 of them) have no sewage treatment facilities and few have plans to build any and underground water supplies in 90 percent of the cites are contaminated.

Water shortages and water pollution in China are such a problem that the World Bank warns of “catastrophic consequences for future generations.” Half of China’s population lacks safe drinking water.

China faces a demographic disaster. The combination of the one-child policy and the traditional preference for male children has created a huge imbalance between the sexes. There has been a slight decline recently, but the male-to-female ratio at birth in 2009 was still 119.45 to 100.

China has several border disputes going with India. In the Kashmir region and in the area southeast of it, there are at least four chunks of territory occupied by China and claimed by India, of which the largest is Aksai Chin (over 14,000 square miles). And at the eastern end of the Sino-Indian border, there is an even larger chunk of territory -- Arunachal Pradesh (over 32,000 square miles) -- which is occupied by India and claimed by China. China and India went to war over those territories in 1962.

The upshot was that China now controls Aksai Chin, and India now controls Arunachal Pradesh. But that does not mean that the disputes have been resolved. On the contrary, China's "Map World" global online mapping service has just recently issued a map showing both Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as parts of China.

Those things interrelate, and the outlook is not good. Tibet and East Turkestan border each other, and both of them border Aksai Chin. Tibet also borders Arunachal Pradesh. Aksai Chin also borders both an area occupied by Pakistan and claimed by India and an area occupied by India and claimed by Pakistan. And, of course, China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear powers.

Throw in social unrest caused by male-to-female disparities, which are most acute in China's western rural regions, and by a lack of safe drinking water for half of China's population (as well as the other privations which result from China's economic and environmental policies). What you get is a recipe for cataclysm.

There are dozens of flashpoints, any of which could ignite others, and before you know it:

--> there are uprisings in East Turkestan and Tibet which spill over into Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh and then into the territories disputed by Indian and Pakistan,

--> tens of millions of testosterone-poisoned young men who can't find any women join the fray,

--> hundreds of millions of people who can't even get a drink of water without risking potentially fatal diseases decide that they've had enough of it,

--> all three countries' millitaries get involved,

--> the internal conflicts become international conflicts,

--> somebody with his finger on the button blows a gasket, and

Kaboom! Nuclear holocaust in Asia.

China's government is sitting fragilely atop all of this in what amounts to an ever-more desperate, frantic, and dangerous game of Whack a Mole. And even if China were to become a representative democracy, those things would not go away.

I find it nearly miraculous that the whole region has not gone up in smoke already -- potentially taking the rest of us with it. And I can't think of anything even resembling a way out of this mess for anyone.

The Hen wrote:I'm with Dales. PRC are going for the next global power.

I now regret that the Hatch chose to learn Japanese instead of Mandarin.

I think you right; in the future Chinese is going be a very valuable language to know. I would not be surprise if Japan eventually end up as a province of China, only time will tell.

Excellent analysis Andrew; very comprehensive.

China faces separatist/autonomist movements,

I think another thing that really spooks the Chinese leadership and makes them reflexively antagonistic to democratization is seeing what the Soviet Union went through. They're terrified of the prospect that they could experience a similar type of national disintegration.

The question remains:

When does Tibet get 'the bomb".

Lord Jim wrote: I think another thing that really spooks the Chinese leadership and makes them reflexively antagonistic to democratization is seeing what the Soviet Union went through. They're terrified of the prospect that they could experience a similar type of national disintegration.

Interesting idea Jim.

I still hold out the hope that China will face a gradual assimilation into capitalist economics, and by virtue of that become more democratic.

Hey remember when Medi used to try and convinced us that the Chinese loved the system and were happy and danced in the streets over Communist rule?

The Chinese are NOT our (The US) friends.

Please stop buying their crap.

Hu's on first?

BEIJING—Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the U.S. in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a "product of the past" and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency....

....
This could be a major issue of contention between Messrs. Hu and Obama. The U.S. blames Chinese currency undervaluation—not Fed policy making—for worsening competitive and inflation problems overseas.

Some of Mr. Hu's most significant comments dealt with the future of the dollar and currency exchange rates.

"The current international currency system is the product of the past," he said, noting the primacy of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and its use in international trade and investment.

The comment is the latest sign that the dollar's future continues to concern the most senior levels of the Chinese government. Beijing fears not only that loose U.S. monetary policy is fueling inflation, but that it will erode the value of China's holdings of dollars within its vast foreign-exchange reserves, which reached $2.85 trillion at the end of 2010.

China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, created an international stir in March 2009 by calling for the creation of a new synthetic reserve currency as an alternative to the dollar. Mr. Hu's comments add to the sense that China intends to challenge the post-World War II financial order largely created by the U.S. and dominated by the dollar.

Mr. Hu called attention to China's accelerating effort to expand the role of its own currency, describing recent moves to allow greater use of the yuan in cross-border trade and investment—while acknowledging that making it a fully fledged international currency "will be a fairly long process."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... Collection

I believe a civil war could be their undoing. I likely will not live to see it though.

It might not be too far in the future that the "fattest" country in the world may be on an enforced weight loss program.

KCl (Potassium Chloride) occurs naturally, however it is most abundant in Canada.

It is the cheapest form of K used in fertilizers (not the only, definitely the cheapest).

Because of the US the PRC now knows they don't have to use poop for fertilizer.

As Jimbob points out with the 2nd largest GDP they can afford to out bid us.

K is an essential plant nutrient.

Hide & watch.

Just like the stealth fighter that the US PooPoos, saying we are working on 5th generation stealth (which does not exist at this moment BTW). The US sits on it's laurels.

It won't be over night, but continued on this tack it will happen...

China's tremendous economic growth has been fueled by its inexpensive labor and cutting corners (Andrew highlights the results of some of that cost savings). As its labor becomes more expensive, production there will slow and at some point decline; we are already seeing marginal decisions by manufacturers to locate new plants elsewhere because of the rising costs in China. At some point, the environmental issues will hit the fan, and that will be a drain as China has to deal with those problems. Then the inevitable rise of China to dominance will falter like many others before it. Recall when Japan, Inc. was going to rule the world, and Japan didn't have near the problems that China is pushing into the future.

Hey! I want to predict doom and gloom unimpeded...

It is worth pointing out that the Chinese economic empire is built on slave labor.

Consider: their insistence on maintaining depressed currency, in a rational world, would be counter-productive, but they know that they can under-sell just about anyone because their workers are willing to work for next to nothing.

Representative democracy in China, as here in the U.S., will ultimately bring out a collective demand by the population that the Workers be given a "fair" share of the pie, but this is a couple generations in the future - minimum 40 years - so matters not to anyone posting here.

Never underestimate the ability of a totalitarian state to quell internal disturbances. The Soviet Union was BROKE, which is why they failed to maintain control. China don't have that problem, nor will it for many, many years.

Commies do not negotiate. They either demand or simply wait until they get what they want.

One can only hope that they will govern the world benevolently.

keld feldspar wrote:Hey! I want to predict doom and gloom unimpeded...

Here ya go, keld!