Fairy Tales

[Long Run]

Why Bernie Sanders Will Become the Democratic Nominee and Defeat Any Republican in 2016
Posted: 06/29/2015 10:53 am EDT Updated: 07/07/2015 1:59 pm EDT

Bernie Sanders is down by just 8 points in New Hampshire and has gained tremendous momentum in Iowa. If the Vermont senator wins both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, the odds will favor him getting the Democratic nomination. What was once thought of as a long shot is becoming a reality, primarily because Bernie Sanders has energized his base while Hillary Clinton has been forced to defend against email and foreign donor scandals. However, this isn't the first time in recent history that a challenger to Clinton was once thought of as a long shot. * * *

William H. Frey of Brookings published a report titled Minority Turnout Determined the 2012 Election, highlighting profound demographic changes in the electorate:

What this tells me is that turnout will be less important for Democratic victory as demography changes in their favor, though they must maintain their strong voting margins among blacks, Hispanics and Asians. For Republicans, the latter projections show that they cannot count primarily on white support to take the White House. Even assuming high 2004 turnout rates and 2012 Republican voting margins for whites, they cannot win unless they also peel off more votes among minorities. In this regard, demography indeed becomes destiny.

Therefore, even if minorities vote at the same rate for any Democratic nominee, including Bernie Sanders, Republicans will still have an uphill battle for the White House in 2016.

* * *
As for the Electoral College and Bernie Sanders, a closer look at the numbers and the electoral map shows that Vermont's senator is indeed a pragmatic choice (no email scandals, voted consistently on progressive issues before they were popular, energized a base of Democratic supporters) for Democratic nominee. Also, Sanders has a better chance than Hillary of defeating Jeb Bush or any other GOP challenger.

* * *

In other words, the electoral map shows that Bernie Sanders is not only a realistic candidate for president, but his record on a number of issues speaks to a wide range of voters. If Democrats simply vote based on their value system (considering demographic shifts favor Democrats), Bernie Sanders can easily win the presidency.

* * *
Ultimately, the only way for the GOP to win the White House in 2016 would be to campaign against a Democratic candidate who most resembles the Republican platforms on Wall Street, war, trade, and other issues. Hillary Clinton voted for Iraq, she's amassed $328,759,064 over the years (three of her top five donors are Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan), and she was against gay marriage up until recently. Bernie Sanders is actually the only hope Democrats have of winning the White House without a controversial email showing up days before people line up at the voting booths. While the GOP is ready for Hillary Clinton, Sanders represents a real challenge to union busting Scott Walker and Jeb Bush's support for the Iraq War. In today's political environment, Hillary Clinton winning the presidency is the "fairy tale," while Senator Bernie Sanders is the most realistic choice for president in 2016.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodm ... 85364.html

[Lord Jim]

[Long Run]

Bernie Sanders as Democrat nominee = Republican Wet Dream.

I love rationalizations like this article.

If Democrats simply vote based on their value system (considering demographic shifts favor Democrats), Bernie Sanders can easily win the presidency.

Romney, a terrible campaigner, gave Obama, a very good campaigner, a close race. Sanders is way out on the edge, past Obama, without any of Obama's skills/cool/racial historic status. The R's kicked the D's butts in the 2014 races. But Sanders "can easily win." Obviously delusional.

[Sue U]

As red as I am, I do not dream that Bernie Sanders will be president, or even the Democratic nominee. But I sure like having him in the race.

[Big RR]

I don't know Sue, I prefer Bernie to a lot of the other dem contenders (and the repubs as well); the dems could do a lot worse than him. But I'll wait and see who else gets into the race. Who are you supporting this early?

And I do agree his presence is useful as it forces a lot of issues to the forefront that some others would rather no confront.

As for him being "the republican wet dream", if W could tie in 2000 and win in 2008, I would think anyone can be president.

[Sue U]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm sending Bernie all the moneys. I just don't think he'll win, but I'd love to be proved wrong.

[rubato]

Bernie is a great addition to the race just because he talks about issues without sucking up to any particular bloc of voters just to do it. He just comes out and talks about what public policy should be.


yrs,
rubato

[Guinevere]

Nate Silver and the NY Times beg to differ .....

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bern ... here-else/

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is now telling reporters that she is at risk of losing Iowa to Bernie Sanders in the February caucuses. One ought to view these stories a bit cynically: It almost always benefits a candidate to lower expectations in Iowa, and these warnings are often designed to activate lethargic supporters. At the same time, the campaign press loves stories that suggest it’ll have a competitive Democratic primary rather than a walkover.

But in this case, Clinton’s campaign is probably right: Sanders could win Iowa. He’s up to 30 percent of the vote there, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s estimate. What’s more, Sanders could also win New Hampshire, where he’s at 32 percent of the vote. Nationally, by contrast, Sanders has just 15 percent of the vote and has been gaining ground on Clinton only slowly.

One theory to explain these numbers is that Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats are early adopters of Sanders’s populist-left message. It isn’t a bad theory. These states have received the most intense campaign activity so far, and Sanders’s name recognition is higher among Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire — perhaps about 70 percent or 80 percent, based on recent polls — than it is nationally. If the theory is true, Sanders’s numbers will improve nationally as Democrats in other states become as familiar with him as those in Iowa and New Hampshire are.

There’s another theory, however, that probably does more to explain Sanders’s standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it’s really simple. Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/up ... ?referrer=

Bernie Sanders is surging. He trailed Hillary Rodham Clinton by as much as 50 points in the polls a few months ago, but he has pulled within 10 points in New Hampshire, according to some surveys. He has doubled his support in Iowa over the last month. The signs of his support are palpable: Last week, about 10,000 people attended an event in Madison, Wis., and he announced that he raised $15 million in the first three months of his campaign.

But the Sanders surge is about to hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate.

Senator Sanders is now doing nearly as well as Barack Obama did among liberal voters in 2008. That makes him competitive in relatively liberal contests, like the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary.

But Mrs. Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats — white and nonwhite alike. Whether Mr. Sanders can close the gap among these voters will determine the seriousness of his candidacy and whether he can pick up more delegates in other primaries. There aren’t many reasons to expect he will break through, and he certainly isn’t doing it yet.

If he doesn’t, he will lose by a wide margin.

Mr. Sanders surged as he consolidated the liberal voters who represent the natural opposition to Mrs. Clinton. A socialist senator from Vermont, he was always well positioned to be the vehicle of their skepticism of Mrs. Clinton’s policies on Wall Street and foreign intervention.

Does no one remember Howard Dean (another candidate I worked for and adore(d)). I suspect - and said this to my Swede the day before these articles came out - Bernie's trajectory will be similar.

[dgs49]

Bernie Sanders is the "Anyone But Hillary" candidate, nothing more.

All Republicans need in 2016 is to win a landslide among working White people, just like Ronaldus Maximus did. Bernie fits into this narrative perfectly.

But either one of them will be just fine.

Or Uncle Joe. HA, HA, HA, HA!