Plan B Forum

...be made glorious summer by the sun (son) of Trudeau?

It is election day in Canada, and polls point to the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau (son of the late prime minister) winning a minority mandate, and putting an end to what is increasing being called the Decade of Darkness. Which is not to say that the Conservative Party has not done its absolute worst in attempting to turn the tide, trying to eke out a win by appealing to the basest xenophobia, and to some extent succeeding, revealing a side of some of my fellow Canadians that was reminiscent of the past hostility towards certain groups of immigrants, and which most of us thought was a relic of an era long past.

Thankfully it doesn't appear to have been enough to staunch Liberal momentum, nor were the years of personal attacks against Trudeau any more successful. The Conservative strategy of trying to define Liberal leaders before they could define themselves had worked perfectly in the previous two elections. The Conservative miscalculation this time, I think, was that they were trying to define in their own terms a man whom the entire country had witnessed growing up into the man he eventually became.

Ironically, by attempting to set expectations so low, the Conservatives may have helped propel Trudeau from the third place standing he held at the beginning of the election. There was broad consensus that he put in an impressive performance during the five televised debates, and it was in that time that his poll numbers began to move upwards. The memes that Conservatives tried to generate about him (part-time drama teacher, just not ready, etc.) simply did not jive with what people saw during those debates.

Nor can the disastrous campaign performance of the New Democratic Party be discounted as a major factor in the Liberal rise. The NDP were strongly leading in the early phases of the writ period, but a series of miscalculations sent them on a downward spiral that will see them lucky to hold on to a majority of the seats in Quebec, their base in the last Parliament, and more than a smattering of seats elsewhere.

Latest seat projections:

Too Close to Call:


Election Prediction Project: CBC Poll Tracker: Even if the Conservative do manage to eke out a minority win, both the Liberals and NDP have said they would not a Conservative government in such a case, which would be defeated at the vote on the Throne Speech if it did not see the writing on the wall sooner, and the opportunity to govern would fall to Liberals, whom the NDP would have no choice but to support if they did not want to risk open revolt by their own MPs and party membership.

So it looks like a "heads I win, tails you lose" scenario for the Liberal Party come the close of voting tonight. Stay tuned for updates.

what is increasing being called the Decade of Darkness.

Gee I wonder what the ideological allegiances are of the people calling it that?

Well, for starters, anyone who is disturbed by the fact we have a PM who is increasingly being equated with Donald Trump

Lord Jim wrote:

what is increasing being called the Decade of Darkness.

Gee I wonder what the ideological allegiances are of the people calling it that?

Apparently those who have a problem forming adverbs, because I mistakenly did not write "increasingly twice.

Edited to replace with full clip.

This is probably just the thing Harper needs to push him over the top:

Canada election: PM Stephen Harper holds rally with controversial ex-mayor Rob Ford as tight poll looms

Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has rallied supporters at a raucous event promoted by controversial former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, as the country counts down to a tight national election.

It was the second time in a week that Mr Harper, whose campaign has focused on law and order, rubbed elbows with Mr Ford, who gained global notoriety in 2013 after admitting he used crack cocaine while in office.

Surrounded by an estimated 1,750 cheering supporters, Mr Harper took the stage after a rousing introduction by Doug Ford, who ran for the mayor's office after his brother pulled out of the campaign to fight cancer.

"Make no mistake, God help this county, it will be an absolute disaster if [Liberal leader] Justin Trudeau and [Ontario Liberal premier] Kathleen Wynne were running this country," Doug Ford said, drawing boos with his reference to Mr Trudeau, Mr Harper's chief rival and campaign frontrunner.

Mr Harper thanked the Ford brothers and other organisers but was not seen shaking hands with either, and has not directly answered questions about why his campaign is associated with the Fords.

The prime minister's appearance with Rob Ford at two events in the final week of a close federal campaign came as new details of Mr Ford's alcohol and drug abuse in office were revealed in excerpts from a book by a former aide, Mayor Rob Ford: Uncontrollable.

The former mayor and his brother remain Conservative Party stalwarts who wield considerable influence in Toronto's suburbs, where their populist low-tax message has many supporters.

Mr Ford made global headlines by refusing to resign as mayor even after he admitted he had smoked crack while in a "drunken stupor".

The Fords "appeal to lots of people in the Toronto suburbs who feel the elites don't speak for them", said Robert Drummond, political science professor at York University.

"I think it is not a smart move, but I suspect the PM would prefer not to have the Fords opposing him because he wouldn't come to their rally."

Mr Trudeau told reporters in Montreal that Mr Harper should be embarrassed to count on Rob Ford's support.

But Mr Ford's backers were more forgiving.

"Whether I agree with their past behaviour, I can't say I do," said Arnold Birnie.

"You don't have to be a Liberal to smoke dope and get addicted and make mistakes."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-18/c ... rd/6864284

Just one of many moves that show the Cons have been in desperation mode the last few days.

There were Con candidates telling people showing up at their events that a Liberal government would mandate the establishment of brothels and shooting galleries in their neighbourhoods. Ads were trying to frighten seniors into believing that Liberal plans to rollback some of Con's boutique tax cuts would increase their taxes (they wouldn't, and the Liberal platform had said so explicitly).

Then there was the whole issue about banning niqabs at citizenship ceremonies, an issue tailor made for the knuckle dragging base of the Conservative Party. They were sure they had a winner there for a while, entangled as it was in the "activist liberal judges" mantra the party tries so hard to milk, but it doesn't seem to have worked out so well this time.

mandate the establishment of brothels and shooting galleries

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Scooter wrote:


Edited to replace with full clip.

Mike Myers has been sitting down at a few too many testimonial dinners for a little too long there, eh? Or is he getting ready for a long winter in a snow cave in Nunavut?


yrs,
rubato

Thus far it's a bloodbath. That is, Liberal red ALL over Atlantic Canada. At this point, Liberals are leading or elected in all 32 Atlantic seats. A couple or three may certainly flip back, but these were NDP or Con seats that should NEVER have been in play. Liberals are at something like 65% of the popular vote in the region thus far; that's 35 points up from their 2011 showing. But more significantly, the latest polls showed them at 53% in the region, so WAY above expectations. If that trend follows across the country, I don't want to say the dream word that begins with an m, but certainly Stephen Harper needs to start packing up at 24 Sussex, because Justin Trudeau is returning to his boyhood home.

31 out of 32 now, but just to put that in perspective...

In that last election, the Liberals won 34 seats. In the entire COUNTRY.

10 years in office is a long run for any Party, especially with the same Leader...

Even though throughout most of that run Canada prospered fairly well, (even through the banking crisis and global recession that beset most Western Countries during 2008-2011) the country is now enduring an economic downturn, (due primarily to plummeting oil and mineral prices)...

You combine "voter fatigue" from having the same lot in government for a decade, with an economic slump, and it's not surprising that they would get the boot...

Another half hour until the polls close from Quebec to Alberta - we'll see how this trend unfolds across other regions.

My clue will be how the Libs do in Quebec - if they break 30 seats, majority is in reach.

I confess I really don't know much about this Trudeau The Younger...

Is he at least a minimally sensible and rational person, or does he embrace things like, "let's withdraw from NATO"...

Eminently sensible and rational, and based on his responses before and during the campaign, not one to get caught up in populist emotion and use it to set policy, as for example the Conservatives have repeatedly done. And he learned foreign policy at his father's knees; before he was a teen he was discussing world events with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. I think he will lead a typical Liberal government - economically moderate, socially progressive, and engaged in world affairs but prepared to say no to open-ended military entanglements.

Trudeau the younger is nearly as much an idiot as his father. Canada may be in for a bad stretch here.

before he was a teen he was discussing world events with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Well, he could certainly do worse than that...

Scooter wrote:Eminently sensible and rational, and based on his responses before and during the campaign, not one to get caught up in populist emotion and use it to set policy, as for example the Conservatives have repeatedly done. And he learned foreign policy at his father's knees; before he was a teen he was discussing world events with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. I think he will lead a typical Liberal government - economically moderate, socially progressive, and engaged in world affairs but prepared to say no to open-ended military entanglements.

Tell economically moderate to the people in Alberta who remember the NEP. Like my father, whose livelihood was destroyed by the elder Trudeau. The younger can go to hell.

Combine our two resident Canookian's thoughts and you get the right answer...

before he was a teen he was discussing world events with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Trudeau the younger is nearly as much an idiot as his father.