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Terrorism?

Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:55 pm
by Lord Jim
When the tragedy first occurred, both Egyptian and Russian authorities rushed to try and rule out terrorism.

But now...
ISLAMIC STATE have released a chilling video, which may be proof that the terror group did shoot down the Russian plane causing it to crash and kill all 224 people on board.

Image

The barbaric terrorists last night claimed to have downed the Airbus A-321 jet in revenge for Russian air strikes in Syria - but how they could have carried out the deadly act remains a mystery.

However dramatic footage has now emerged online, which purports to show the final moments of the doomed airliner as it falls through the air, before it appears to explode and engulfs into a ball of smoke and flames.

Egypt’s North Sinai is home to a two-year-old Islamist insurgency and militants who support Islamic State have killed hundreds of Egyptian soldiers and police in recent months.
But officials in Cairo and Moscow were quick to quash any possible link to terrorism in the tragedy, which was one of the deadliest plane crashes in the past decade.

And the co-pilot allegedly complained to his family that the aircraft's condition "left much to be desired" shortly before the doomed flight took off.

The aircraft, which was was flying from the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh destined for the Russian city of St Petersburg, was said to have split in half mid-air scattering debris and bodies over a wide area in remote Sinai, Egypt.

Burnt corpses were found 3.1 miles away from the crashed aircraft, and this morning search and rescue teams recovered the body of a three-year-old girl some five miles from the crash scene.

So far, only 163 bodies of 214 Russian passengers and three Ukrainians, have been recovered, which has resulted in search and rescue teams expanding their search perimeter to nine miles.

It comes as officials said the jet, operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia, did not lodge an SOS call before its quick descent.

Professor Michael Clarke, Director General of the Royal United Services Institute, said the jet may have been destroyed by a bomb on the aircraft.


He said: "This aircraft was 200km north of its take-off zone, that means it was flying at around 31,000 feet. Terrorists, as far as we know, don’t have equipment to take down an aircraft at that height.

"Early reports said it split into two and that suggests a catastrophic failure, not a mechanical failure, but perhaps an explosion on board.

"So I would be much more inclined to think, if we have to guess at this stage, it is much more likely to have been a bomb on board than a missile fired from the ground.

"And there’s no sign of a distress call, so the idea that the aircraft was undergoing an mechanical problem, or an engine problem, or a fire, or something like that, you would expect that there would be some sort of distress call beforehand."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/616 ... sion-video

If you watch the video, (which you can see at the link) it begins while the plane is flying normally, not after the explosion, (and there clearly is an explosion) which would rule out the possibility that this is a video taken by someone who just happened to be hanging out in the Sinai when the plane went down and video taped it.

If this video is authenticated as an actual video taken of the Russian plane, then clearly it was brought down as an act of terrorism. Somebody had to know this was going to happen so that they would be prepared to capture it on video.

I don't see any object approaching the plane prior to the explosion, but at the distance from which the video is shot, an anti aircraft missile would be pretty tough to make out unless it just happened to catch the sun light.

However it would appear that an on-board bomb (perhaps detonated remotely so they would know when and where to start filming) would be more likely.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Sun Nov 01, 2015 11:55 pm
by Gob
Hey, guess who's flying out of Dubai tomorrow?

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:32 am
by TPFKA@W
Gob wrote:Hey, guess who's flying out of Dubai tomorrow?
:shock:

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:42 am
by Guinevere
Lord Jim wrote:

If you watch the video, (which you can see at the link) it begins while the plane is flying normally, not after the explosion, (and there clearly is an explosion) which would rule out the possibility that this is a video taken by someone who just happened to be hanging out in the Sinai when the plane went down and video taped it.

If this video is authenticated as an actual video taken of the Russian plane, then clearly it was brought down as an act of terrorism. Somebody had to know this was going to happen so that they would be prepared to capture it on video.

I don't see any object approaching the plane prior to the explosion, but at the distance from which the video is shot, an anti aircraft missile would be pretty tough to make out unless it just happened to catch the sun light.

However it would appear that an on-board bomb (perhaps detonated remotely so they would know when and where to start filming) would be more likely.
Clearly? Really? You're qualified as a forensic video examiner, not to mention an aircraft mechanical engineer, and I assume you have expertise in explosives, too.

I understand it works with your world view to conclude this was the result of a bombing and terrorism, and maybe that will be true. Maybe it was a catastrophic failure of the frame. Or some spark that ignited all those tons of av-gas in the tanks. Or one of several other possibilities.

I'll leave it to the experts to make that determination, rather than rushing to judgment, thanks.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:29 am
by BoSoxGal
I hope it was *only* a mid-air catastrophic failure of the aircraft, as horrible as that is already. :?

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:06 pm
by rubato
1.
It is a Russian airline and they have really crappy records for safety and maintenance. If I was 20yrs old and single I might fly on them, not otherwise.


2.
The bodies and pieces are spread over a wide area suggesting that the plane either broke in pieces or there was an explosion/fire. The plane was flying in a steady state at altitude, there were no unusual forces acting on the airframe which makes a spontaneous failure unlikely.


3.
There are a lot of things which fly in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft which are very dangerous (speaking as someone who had his "IATA dangerous goods certification" renewed this year). Oxygen generators and batteries can both ignite and create enough heat to destroy the body of the aircraft. The Boeing 777 release was delayed when Li batteries overheated and caught fire during testing. High levels of corruption in Russian-run-Anything increase the chance that air freight rules were ignored in exchange for a bribe.


I would say it is 50/50 that it was an accidental ignition of cargo in the plane or an intentional ignition of same leading to fire-explosion.


yrs,
rubato

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:00 pm
by Guinevere
Yep. I was specifically thinking of TWA 800 -- lots of conspiracy theories -- ended up being a design/construction flaw.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:40 pm
by rubato
You have to hand it to ISIS; they really know how to win friends and influence people.



yrs,
rubato

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:13 pm
by MajGenl.Meade
Guinevere wrote:Yep. I was specifically thinking of TWA 800 -- lots of conspiracy theories -- ended up being a design/construction flaw.
I was just looking for your post in which you berate rubato for not being a forensic video examiner, not to mention an aircraft mechanical engineer, and an expert in explosives, too.

I don't see it. Must be just over.... there...

Somewhere....

I'm sure of it...

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:12 am
by dales
Her post was addressed to LJ.

Danged if I can find it, though. :shrug

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:21 am
by dales
Ah, here it is!


Guinevere wrote:
Lord Jim wrote:

If you watch the video, (which you can see at the link) it begins while the plane is flying normally, not after the explosion, (and there clearly is an explosion) which would rule out the possibility that this is a video taken by someone who just happened to be hanging out in the Sinai when the plane went down and video taped it.

If this video is authenticated as an actual video taken of the Russian plane, then clearly it was brought down as an act of terrorism. Somebody had to know this was going to happen so that they would be prepared to capture it on video.

I don't see any object approaching the plane prior to the explosion, but at the distance from which the video is shot, an anti aircraft missile would be pretty tough to make out unless it just happened to catch the sun light.

However it would appear that an on-board bomb (perhaps detonated remotely so they would know when and where to start filming) would be more likely.
Clearly? Really? You're qualified as a forensic video examiner, not to mention an aircraft mechanical engineer, and I assume you have expertise in explosives, too.

I understand it works with your world view to conclude this was the result of a bombing and terrorism, and maybe that will be true. Maybe it was a catastrophic failure of the frame. Or some spark that ignited all those tons of av-gas in the tanks. Or one of several other possibilities.

I'll leave it to the experts to make that determination, rather than rushing to judgment, thanks.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:27 am
by rubato
MajGenl.Meade wrote:
Guinevere wrote:Yep. I was specifically thinking of TWA 800 -- lots of conspiracy theories -- ended up being a design/construction flaw.
I was just looking for your post in which you berate rubato for not being a forensic video examiner, not to mention an aircraft mechanical engineer, and an expert in explosives, too.

I don't see it. Must be just over.... there...

Somewhere....

I'm sure of it...

I actually am certified as a dangerous goods specialist by the IATA (International Air Transport Authority) so I'm not a total blithering moron ignoramus like LJ.

It is convenient from a regulatory point of view to my employer for those of us who make and package quantities of chemicals for air transport to be so certified. And we ship chemicals by air to Japan, China, Taiwan, New York (IBM), &c.

And that is why my post on the subject was better written and informed than his speculative horseshit.

I think this was apparent to a sensitive and perceptive reader, like Guin.


yrs,
rubato

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:31 am
by Guinevere
MajGenl.Meade wrote:
Guinevere wrote:Yep. I was specifically thinking of TWA 800 -- lots of conspiracy theories -- ended up being a design/construction flaw.
I was just looking for your post in which you berate rubato for not being a forensic video examiner, not to mention an aircraft mechanical engineer, and an expert in explosives, too.

I don't see it. Must be just over.... there...

Somewhere....

I'm sure of it...
I read rubato's post as providing additional *theories* but not endorsing any conclusions. In contrast, LJ uses the word "clearly" twice. Oh and any lawyer knows (and it is taught on day one of law school) if you have to resort to using that word, your point is usually not so clear.

The NTSB chief tonight said they cannot make any conclusions about cause until they retrieve the black boxes. Do I need to say any more?

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:16 am
by MajGenl.Meade
Mebbe so. But what did he wrote that is not "clearly" so?

(a) that the video shows a plane exploding (which it does) and
(b) IF THIS IS VIDEO of the Russian plane exploding, given the chances of a random aborigine just happening to be filming the plane at the exactly correct moment, then clearly there was something other than chance operating.

That's what he wrote. Which part is particularly offensive and why?

And he sayeth further:
I don't see any object approaching the plane prior to the explosion. . . However it would appear that an on-board bomb (perhaps detonated remotely so they would know when and where to start filming) would be more likely.

"It would appear..." "more likely".... (than a surface to air missile of course - a conclusion that experts have endorsed given the plane's altitude)

Now I don't think that's any more ignorantly conclusive than rubato's well-informed certified opinions:
I would say it is 50/50 that it was an accidental ignition of cargo in the plane or an intentional ignition of same leading to fire-explosion.
So how come LJ gets the raspberries from you and rubato gets his boots polished - for saying the same kind of event "appears" or is "more likely"? Enquiring minds already know

:nana

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:44 am
by MajGenl.Meade
OTOH, I'm becoming very depressed at realizing it is becoming ever more likely that I'll have to vote Democrat.... and if Her Royal Clintonness is the candidate, I'll have to write in Bernie....

Offered in mitigation for being a grump

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:01 am
by BoSoxGal
MajGenl.Meade wrote:I'll have to vote Democrat.... and I'll write in Bernie....
:ok

AS A HIGHLY TRAINED OBSERVER OF STUFF...

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:17 am
by RayThom
... it's quite obvious something happened here. I mean, look at all the debris in these videos and compare it to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down over Ukraine. Proof positive... need I say more?

Who's the expert now?
Image

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:01 pm
by oldr_n_wsr
I think it is rather disrespectful to be taking pictures with your buddies on top of the plane where all those aboard died.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:14 pm
by BoSoxGal
Agreed - there's no accounting for some people's tastes.

Re: Terrorism?

Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:56 pm
by rubato
The Russians went to a lot of trouble to remove anything from the airline's appearance that would identify it as Russian. "MetroJet" in English, baby blue and white livery, not a hint of red.



yrs,
rubato