A lot will be decided by the end of today's balloting.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... epublican/
Based on Nate Silver's projections Hillary has a large margin in all but one which, surprisingly, is Oklahoma. I can't for the life of me figure how how Bernie is surging to evenses there and not anywhere else. If Nate Silver's predictions hold up (as they generally do) Hillary will have a large margin after today and Bernie's chances will by significantly faded. At this point I don't think he will drop out before the convention no matter how slim the chance gets.
On the Clown Bus Trump is predicted to win nearly all of them except Texas where Cruz has a large lead; but no joy for Cruz he is predicted to have far less than 50% so the delegates will be divided giving him too little to gain ground on the Trumpster. And Arkansas is the only other state where Trump has a chance of losing (per the latest polls).
If it solidifies as a Clinton-Trump final will Bloomberg jump in? Based on Republican mutterings about the loathesomeness of Trump he could pick up a majority of the Republican voters in the general election but could he get enough Dem and Independants to win? Would the GOP support his campaign? Would they do so openly and use Trumps' lack of loyalty as the excuse?
yrs,
rubato
Stupor Tuesday.
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
And Minnesota, Where Marco might win...(based on the polls)And Arkansas is the only other state where Trump has a chance of losing (per the latest polls).
The only thing that gives me a glimmer of hope, is that as I have looked at all the latest state-by-state polls done recently, none of them have taken into account what has been happening post debate...
We'll see...
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
The thing with looking at how a candidate will do in a state is to also factor in the diversity of that state. Looking at Oklahoma, it is a solid red state, but that does not mean those who vote Dem trend moderate. If you also see that compared to a lot of states, it has a lower percentage of African-Americans, and has more Native Americans, it may be predictable that Sanders would do better there than many of the other states voting today.
There is also the assorted manners in which delegates are picked. 538 had a good article on this back in December. The Rs skew the power to blue states. That is, while most blue states are pretty much irrelevant in getting an R into office in the general election, they hold almost equal say in deciding who the nominee will be. This is one reason why the recent nominees have been more moderate than the states they won. In theory, this should help Rubio but this year is a wild ride, so who knows.
There is also the assorted manners in which delegates are picked. 538 had a good article on this back in December. The Rs skew the power to blue states. That is, while most blue states are pretty much irrelevant in getting an R into office in the general election, they hold almost equal say in deciding who the nominee will be. This is one reason why the recent nominees have been more moderate than the states they won. In theory, this should help Rubio but this year is a wild ride, so who knows.
Stupor Tuesday
So far, Rubio hasn't won a state. It looks like he's toast. Sadly, he's in denial and is sounding like a broken record. I wish I had a nickel for every time he has said "con man and KKK." I'd be rich.
“In a world whose absurdity appears to be so impenetrable, we simply must reach a greater degree of understanding among us, a greater sincerity.”
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
He looks like he's on his way to winning Minnesota. I don't know if that translates in GOP primaries to wins in other Midwestern states, but if it does, he would still be very much in it.
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
I may have spoken too soon - Sanders just took a very strong lead in MN, does that bode something for future primaries in that region of the country?
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
Come on USA, vote in President Trump.
He cannot do any more damage to your country and reputation than Bush the Moron did!!
Think of all the laughs you'll give us.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Stupor Tuesday
I have never been a Hillary fan... going back to when she was First Lady. I find her as untrustworthy and dishonest as Donald J. Drumpf. The thought of voting for her distresses me greatly. Maybe she'll be indicted soon and spare me all the anxiety. Bernie will then pick up the slack and I can, at least, vote with a clear conscience.
At this point I'm hoping Bloomberg will jump in as a 3rd party candidate. Regardless, I see eight more years of Democrats in the White House. No crystal ball needed.
At this point I'm hoping Bloomberg will jump in as a 3rd party candidate. Regardless, I see eight more years of Democrats in the White House. No crystal ball needed.
“In a world whose absurdity appears to be so impenetrable, we simply must reach a greater degree of understanding among us, a greater sincerity.”
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
Bernie's winning four states and just raked in $45million in donations, all smaller donors NO big money, PERIOD.
We are taking back the Democrat party for the regular voters.
Run Bernie, Run!
We are taking back the Democrat party for the regular voters.
Run Bernie, Run!
For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.
~ Carl Sagan
~ Carl Sagan
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
On the way back from Tallulah tonight, I heard a little of Hillary’s speech. She is going to unite the country, what a load of horse crap. If she is elected the only thing that will change, other than less freedom, will be she will get richer and the national debt will get bigger.
I expected to be placed in an air force combat position such as security police, forward air control, pararescue or E.O.D. I would have liked dog handler. I had heard about the dog Nemo and was highly impressed. “SFB” is sad I didn’t end up in E.O.D.
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
You do realize that Clinton pulls in almost as much from a single speech as the POTUS earns in a year.
And you wonder why you are labelled a moron.
And you wonder why you are labelled a moron.
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
Yeah, well we still have 11 carrier task force groups...Gob wrote:
Come on USA, vote in President Trump.
He cannot do any more damage to your country and reputation than Bush the Moron did!!
Think of all the laughs you'll give us.
So keep on laffin' you Eur-o-pean mother fuckers...
And when we show up to save your bacon yet again, you can just say "thank you"...
Last edited by Lord Jim on Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
Scooter wrote:And Trump is just the guy to let all of them loose on your allies.
Donald Trump as the nominee of one of our two major political parties?
And the other choice is Hillary Clinton...
It really does bring into question the whole concept of whether or not self representative government is such a great thing...
After two hundred years of our experiment in representative self government, we get Donald Drumpf and Hillary Clinton?
We should consider ending the experiment...
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
It would be a good plan to go back to that.In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
That could scarcely be worse than a choice between Trump and Hillary...Gob wrote:It would be a good plan to go back to that.In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (
Like I said, a military coup starts lookin' pretty good...
ETA:
What was it Patrick Henry said?
Oh yes....
"If this be treason, then make the most of it!"
-
Bicycle Bill
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Re: Stupor Tuesday.
Thomas Jefferson wrote "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants".Lord Jim wrote:That could scarcely be worse than a choice between Trump and Hillary...Gob wrote:It would be a good plan to go back to that.In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (
Like I said, a military coup starts lookin' pretty good...
ETA:
What was it Patrick Henry said?
Oh yes....
"If this be treason, then make the most of it!"
Wait until/if Trump gets elected — THEN hold your coup/rebellion/revolution.
-"BB"-
Yes, I suppose I could agree with you ... but then we'd both be wrong, wouldn't we?
Re: Stupor Tuesday.
The reason Rubio won Minnesota: voting for an obnoxious celebrity spouting generalities, been there, done that -- Jesse Ventura 1998. Maybe the rest of the country should learn from their experience (nightmare).