Plan B Forum

A lot will be decided by the end of today's balloting.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/ele ... epublican/


Based on Nate Silver's projections Hillary has a large margin in all but one which, surprisingly, is Oklahoma. I can't for the life of me figure how how Bernie is surging to evenses there and not anywhere else. If Nate Silver's predictions hold up (as they generally do) Hillary will have a large margin after today and Bernie's chances will by significantly faded. At this point I don't think he will drop out before the convention no matter how slim the chance gets.


On the Clown Bus Trump is predicted to win nearly all of them except Texas where Cruz has a large lead; but no joy for Cruz he is predicted to have far less than 50% so the delegates will be divided giving him too little to gain ground on the Trumpster. And Arkansas is the only other state where Trump has a chance of losing (per the latest polls).


If it solidifies as a Clinton-Trump final will Bloomberg jump in? Based on Republican mutterings about the loathesomeness of Trump he could pick up a majority of the Republican voters in the general election but could he get enough Dem and Independants to win? Would the GOP support his campaign? Would they do so openly and use Trumps' lack of loyalty as the excuse?


yrs,
rubato

And Arkansas is the only other state where Trump has a chance of losing (per the latest polls).

And Minnesota, Where Marco might win...(based on the polls)

The only thing that gives me a glimmer of hope, is that as I have looked at all the latest state-by-state polls done recently, none of them have taken into account what has been happening post debate...

We'll see...

The Washington post has a results page that refreshes every 30 seconds.

The thing with looking at how a candidate will do in a state is to also factor in the diversity of that state. Looking at Oklahoma, it is a solid red state, but that does not mean those who vote Dem trend moderate. If you also see that compared to a lot of states, it has a lower percentage of African-Americans, and has more Native Americans, it may be predictable that Sanders would do better there than many of the other states voting today.

There is also the assorted manners in which delegates are picked. 538 had a good article on this back in December. The Rs skew the power to blue states. That is, while most blue states are pretty much irrelevant in getting an R into office in the general election, they hold almost equal say in deciding who the nominee will be. This is one reason why the recent nominees have been more moderate than the states they won. In theory, this should help Rubio but this year is a wild ride, so who knows.

So far, Rubio hasn't won a state. It looks like he's toast. Sadly, he's in denial and is sounding like a broken record. I wish I had a nickel for every time he has said "con man and KKK." I'd be rich.

He looks like he's on his way to winning Minnesota. I don't know if that translates in GOP primaries to wins in other Midwestern states, but if it does, he would still be very much in it.

Sanders, on the other hand, needs someone to stick a fork in him.

I may have spoken too soon - Sanders just took a very strong lead in MN, does that bode something for future primaries in that region of the country?

I have never been a Hillary fan... going back to when she was First Lady. I find her as untrustworthy and dishonest as Donald J. Drumpf. The thought of voting for her distresses me greatly. Maybe she'll be indicted soon and spare me all the anxiety. Bernie will then pick up the slack and I can, at least, vote with a clear conscience.

At this point I'm hoping Bloomberg will jump in as a 3rd party candidate. Regardless, I see eight more years of Democrats in the White House. No crystal ball needed.

Bernie's winning four states and just raked in $45million in donations, all smaller donors NO big money, PERIOD.

We are taking back the Democrat party for the regular voters.

Run Bernie, Run!

On the way back from Tallulah tonight, I heard a little of Hillary’s speech. She is going to unite the country, what a load of horse crap. If she is elected the only thing that will change, other than less freedom, will be she will get richer and the national debt will get bigger.

You do realize that Clinton pulls in almost as much from a single speech as the POTUS earns in a year.

And you wonder why you are labelled a moron.

Gob wrote:

Come on USA, vote in President Trump.



He cannot do any more damage to your country and reputation than Bush the Moron did!!



Think of all the laughs you'll give us.

Yeah, well we still have 11 carrier task force groups...

So keep on laffin' you Eur-o-pean mother fuckers...

And when we show up to save your bacon yet again, you can just say "thank you"...

And Trump is just the guy to let all of them loose on your allies.

Scooter wrote:And Trump is just the guy to let all of them loose on your allies.

Donald Trump as the nominee of one of our two major political parties?

And the other choice is Hillary Clinton...

It really does bring into question the whole concept of whether or not self representative government is such a great thing...

After two hundred years of our experiment in representative self government, we get Donald Drumpf and Hillary Clinton?

We should consider ending the experiment...

In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (

It would be a good plan to go back to that.

Gob wrote:

In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (

It would be a good plan to go back to that.

That could scarcely be worse than a choice between Trump and Hillary...

Like I said, a military coup starts lookin' pretty good...

ETA:

What was it Patrick Henry said?

Oh yes....

"If this be treason, then make the most of it!"

Lord Jim wrote:

Gob wrote:

In the early history of the U.S., most states allowed only white male adult property owners to vote (

It would be a good plan to go back to that.

That could scarcely be worse than a choice between Trump and Hillary...

Like I said, a military coup starts lookin' pretty good...

ETA:

What was it Patrick Henry said?

Oh yes....

"If this be treason, then make the most of it!"

Thomas Jefferson wrote "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants".
Wait until/if Trump gets elected — THEN hold your coup/rebellion/revolution.

-"BB"-

The reason Rubio won Minnesota: voting for an obnoxious celebrity spouting generalities, been there, done that -- Jesse Ventura 1998. Maybe the rest of the country should learn from their experience (nightmare).