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This is interesting...
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:52 pm
by Lord Jim
I mentioned that Kasich has been steadily rising in Michigan, and a brand new ARG poll has him actually pulling slightly ahead of Drumpf for first place:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres20 ... mirep.html
If Kasich can pull off an upset in Michigan this Tuesday, that would be, what's the word...
Oh yeah, "yooge"...
I think he's almost certain to win Ohio; the "latest" poll has him trailing Trump by 5 but that poll was conducted way back in mid February; with everything that has happened since and the way things have been trending, I'll be
very surprised if a newer poll doesn't show him back in the lead...
Kasich has carved out a position for himself as (as he put it himself at the last debate) "the adult in the room"...
The one candidate who has refused to engage in the feces throwing party...
Could it be that this is finally starting to pay off?
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:34 pm
by Crackpot
The problem is even if he picks up steam he will eventually have to come to terms with Drumpf. This is Bernies problem too should he win the nomination I don't see either of them able to hold ground let alone trump at his own game. About the only chance Kasich has is hope that Drumpf takes down Rubio and Cruz with him leaving him the last man standing
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 5:24 pm
by Econoline
At this point, all anyone can hope for is that Trump goes into the convention with a plurality, but not a majority. That's looking increasingly likely. Should be a
very entertaining convention!
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2016 5:52 pm
by Scooter
I'm not old enough to remember a floor fight at a convention. I'll have to remember to stock up on popcorn.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:00 am
by Lord Jim
I'm not old enough to remember that either....
It was the Democratic Convention in 1952....
It doesn't happen often...
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:36 pm
by Sue U
Lord Jim wrote:I mentioned that Kasich has been steadily rising in Michigan, and a brand new ARG poll has him actually pulling slightly ahead of Drumpf for first place:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres20 ... mirep.html
If Kasich can pull off an upset in Michigan this Tuesday, that would be, what's the word...
Oh yeah, "yooge"...
I think he's almost certain to win Ohio; the "latest" poll has him trailing Trump by 5 but that poll was conducted way back in mid February; with everything that has happened since and the way things have been trending, I'll be
very surprised if a newer poll doesn't show him back in the lead...?
If wishes were horses ... or, alternatively, "Not bloody likely."
As of noon today, Nate Silver is still giving Trump a 93% chance of winning Michigan. And of all the polling done, the American Research Group poll is by far an outlier, with all others giving Trump the edge by 10 to 24 points. Cruz and Kasich most likely will be duking it out for second-place loser at around 20% each, and Trump will win with 35-40% of the vote. Significantly, Rubio looks to be taking a nose dive.
Ohio is also not looking great for Kasich next week. By rights, Kasich should have been trouncing Trump in his own state from Day One, particularly if he was such a popular governor. Instead, they are at best neck-and-neck. And even if he should eke out a win, Kasich's campaign is not going anywhere in AZ or UT. Aside from WI, where he could potentially pick up the Scott Walker (grrr) vote, there are no real opportunities left for him to make any headway, and he's not going to Cleveland just to be Trump's veep.
Sorry,
Jim, but it looks like you guys are going to be stuck with either Trump or a really bloody floor fight, which may irreparably split the party. I can get you a Hillary lawn sign for the California primary, if it will make you feel better.

Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:54 pm
by Joe Guy
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 8:08 pm
by Lord Jim
Sorry, Jim, but it looks like you guys are going to be stuck with either Trump or a really bloody floor fight
I'll take what's behind the curtain where Carol Merrill's standing Monty...
I don't want what Jay's got on his tray...
If the choice is Donald Trump or "a really bloody floor fight" ...
Hand me my cutlass...

Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 2:07 pm
by Lord Jim
A glimmer of hope in Michigan...
In the Monmouth poll, the company is reporting that in the interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday, (as opposed to earlier) Kasich has been surging and Trump has been falling:
In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump held a solid lead with 39% support
compared to 22% for Cruz, 17% for Kasich, and 14% for Rubio. The race was much tighter in Saturday
and Sunday interviews at 32% for Trump, 26% for Kasich, 25% for Cruz, and 12% for Rubio.
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322122 ... c2d926.pdf
The good news for Rubio is that he's managed to cut Trumps lead in half from 16 to 8 points in Florida, which means he's still got work to do, but it's doable...
The bad news for him is that he's been dropping like a stone every place else; he's looking at bad fourth place finishes pretty much everywhere today, which isn't going to help him build momentum to get the job done in Florida...
It looks to me like his attacks on Trump have certainly taken a toll on stalling Drumpf's popularity, but Kasich and Cruz have benefited from them, (and the other concerted truth telling ads against Trump now coming from many political quarters) more than he has...
He may have undermined himself by getting a little too junior high school in some of what he said. (Though of course Trump
lives in the 7th grade with
his "humor"). He probably should have stuck to hammering him on the con man and screwing the little guy themes and not gone with the wet pants and small hands (wink wink) stuff...
Kasich is actually starting to look like the stronger candidate...
John has really played the role of the tortoise in the race, but he's coming on at the right time. He barely made it on to the main debate stage for the first debate, but he's still in it while 13 other candidates have bitten the dust...
He's done a really good job of mapping out the best strategy for himself, and executing it well. He picked his spots to concentrate on intelligently, and has gotten momentum in them just when he's needed it...
If it goes to a contested convention he should have a respectable block of delegates, and his strategy of not attacking the other candidates personally could really payoff. By avoiding those kinds of attacks, he's also avoided pissing off the supporters of those candidates, which should make it easier for him to pick up their support on a second or third ballot....
And without question he would make a very strong general election candidate. (and unlike a certain character in New Jersey, he remains extremely popular in his home state.)
Maybe I should start looking for a Kasich image for my sigline...
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 2:52 pm
by Big RR
Maybe I should start looking for a Kasich image for my sigline...
that would definitely be an improvement.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:05 pm
by Lord Jim
Done...(to be honest, that photo of Rubio was starting to creep me out...

)
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:23 pm
by Big RR
Kasich is the only one of the republican stack I can stomach, thanks for the change.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:34 pm
by Crackpot
If this state still had open primaries I'd vote Kasich. As is I'm staying home.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:07 pm
by Lord Jim
I heard Cruz this morning claiming to be the candidate who can best unite those in the party who don't want Trump...
This is of course manifestly NOT the case, but there is one thing that Cruz is probably better at than anyone else in the race, and that's peeling votes away from Trump...
Cruz has been the second choice for a lot of Trumpanzees, and as some of them are starting to have doubts about his commitment to conservatism, Cruz benefits...
So at this endeavor (though not of course ultimately getting the nomination) I wish Ted every success; he's playing an important role to move towards a contested convention...
The election results on Saturday really showed the way Cruz is helping to drive down Trump's numbers.. I was most struck by the results in Louisiana; the last poll right before the vote had Trump leading by 17 points with 48% of the vote. On election day Cruz knocked Trump down by 7 points to 41% and he won a narrow 3 point victory...(In fact had it not been for early voting, Cruz would have narrowly beaten Drumpf)
Cruz is really starting to eat into Trumps hard-right and evangelical support, and that works for me...
THIS IS INTERESTING...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:01 pm
by RayThom
LJ, remember what you said earlier, "anything but Drumpf..." and I must assume that means Cruz is included.
July 18–21, 2016 are shaping up to be true days of infamy. So, who do you think is going to run as the Third Party candidate? This is going to be good.
God bless America. He will pull us through. Let us pray.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:37 pm
by Sue U
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!111!!1!!!!!!!1!
Great 'plan'
John Kasich Can’t Win Nomination, Says That’s No Reason He Can’t Be Nominee
By Kaili Joy Gray -
March 8, 2016 - 9:00am
How many victories so far? Oh right, zero.
John Kasich has a cunning plan to be the next Republican presidential nominee. It goes a little something like this: use his “moderate” inside voice during debates, avoid discussing the size of Donald Trump’s dick, and hope the Republican Party hands him the nomination after the other candidates have eaten each other alive, in attempt to stop frontrunner Donald Trump, and are passed out somewhere in a food coma:
“In order to be the nominee, you have to have a certain number of votes,” Kasich said. “Not like, a plurality. You’ve got to have a certain number. You know, it’s like anything else in life, there’s certain rules. You take a driving test, you don’t pass the driving test, you don’t get your license. It’s not like, well, that’s good enough for government. You’ve got to win. You don’t just say, ‘Well, I have more than anybody else, therefore I’m in.'”
That might sound like bad news for Kasich, who has yet to win a single state and is in dead last place (even behind Marco Rubio!) in the delegate count. But, see, that’s where Kasich thinks he’s being clever. Because if Trump can’t win the required majority of delegates, then it’s as if the whole primary season never even happened! The Republican Party is free to start all over at the convention, not caring that Kasich is no one’s first or second or third choice. Instead, says Kasich:
“The delegates will be smart, and they’ll figure it out,” Kasich said. “I was at a convention where Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford. Ford won and the party was unified. But, you know, to say – I have more than you, therefore I should get it? Go out and earn it! Don’t be whining about how it’s gonna work. Go get what you need to be the legitimate winner!”
Clearly, Kasich’s definition of “smart” means not caring that Kasich is the least popular, most losing candidate in the race. The nominee should have to earn it the old-fashioned way, with a majority of delegates — or, alternately, not earn it but instead be John Kasich. That works out nicely for candidates named John Kasich, doesn’t it? Such candidates don’t even have to worry about being in dead last place in the delegate count. And while Kasich had been hoping for an impressive showing in the Michigan primary on Tuesday, that’s, um, not going to happen. At this point, Kasich is a-hopin’ and a-prayin’ to please, dear lord, let him squeak out a victory in his own state of Ohio, where a new PPP poll released Monday shows Trump with a slight lead over him.
Here’s some sexy hot political analysis for you: If Kasich can’t win his own state, he probably can’t win any other states either. That would usually be considered an obstacle for a candidate seeking the presidential nomination, but in the 2016 GOP primary race, candidates — and even not-candidates, like Mitt Romney — seem to think winning is just a technicality. You can lose your way through the primary — or aw heck, just sit the whole thing out entirely — and then show up at the Republican convention and have the party hand the thing to you, instead of Trump, because that’s the “smart” thing to do.
We might note that overruling the will of a plurality of Republican voters who want TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, so that the party establishment can make the wiser and more reasonable Kasich (or Romney!) choice for them, is perhaps not too smart, actually. It could bring total civil war to an already fractured, freaked-the-frick-out party. But screw them, that’s their problem.
[WaPo / PPP]
Source, of course.
Seen elsewhere:
Licensing! This is the way out for the GOP. They simply license the Trump brand, but don't nominate him. Cruz/Rubio/Kasich may not like being called President Trump™ but what of it?
Bwahahahahahahahaha!

Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:43 pm
by TPFKA@W
I think they should do away with the delegate nonsense and just have a WWF cage match to decide who runs. It would settle the question of Trump's hair for once and all and Bernie might be able to pin Hillary for a 3 count.
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 5:52 pm
by Lord Jim
John also hasn't raised boatloads of cash, but he's raised enough, and he's deployed his assets intelligently and shepherded his resources effectively...( skills one should want in a President...)
An upset win or at least a strong second place in Michigan today should put him in good shape to win in Ohio next week and position him well for the race going forward...
The primary schedule starts getting better for him, because we're now past most of the states with a huge evangelical vote...
Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:04 pm
by Lord Jim
LJ, remember what you said earlier, "anything but Drumpf..." and I must assume that means Cruz is included.
As I said before, if Trump is the nominee I will vote for Hillary...
If Cruz is the nominee, I won't vote for him, but I also won't vote for Hillary...(I consider them to equally odious; I consider Trump to be
more odious...)
Even though I won't vote for him and even though if he is nominated we will get...what's the word...oh yeah, schlonged...in the general election, I would prefer for him to be the nominee rather than Trump because I believe the party could recover more quickly from his nomination.
Also, if by some weird possibility either of them could get elected, I believe the country could survive a Cruz presidency more easily than a Trump Presidency...(which ain't sayin' much...Saying that someone is marginally less odious then Donald Trump is just about the lowest bar imaginable...a rattle snake couldn't Limbo under it...)
Bernie might be able to pin Hillary for a 3 count.
No way...
nobody can fight dirtier than Hillary...
She'd kick him in the balls and bite off his ear....

Re: This is interesting...
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:05 pm
by Lord Jim
One thing that's really starting to bite us in the ass is the decision to allow so many of these damned winner-take-all primaries this go around...
It may have seemed like a good idea at the time; "Let's have a lot of winner-take-all primaries so we can settle on a nominee quickly and avoid pro-longed internecine warfare that will damage our candidate"...
But of course that was back when the RNC expected the front runner to be Jeb Bush,
not The Trump-thing....
(See "unintended consequences, law of" and "good intentions, road paved to Hell with".... )
If we had all proportional delegate contests like the Democrats opted for this time around, there would be
no way Drumpf could wind up with a majority prior to the convention...
This is yet another example (like the original debate schedules) where the leaders of the RNC and the DNC probably wish
now they could have had each others rules...
I wonder if there's anyway that the GOP state party central committees for some of the states that vote later in the process, (like delegate-rich California, which currently has winner-take-all, but doesn't vote until June 7th) can switch to proportional...