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On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:18 pm
by Guinevere
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Almost a decade of work, years of hopes and dreams, the idea in the 90s that Hillary was a better candidate than Bill in the first place, getting to meet her (with Ruth Bader Ginsberg), and we are finally there (unofficially). Many of you have no idea what this feels like for a girl who grew up on politics, who never understood why more leaders didn't look like her, who was born at a time when women still weren't allowed to attend some Ivy League colleges, who worked to make opportunities for herself, and has always worked to mentor other women. Thank god my parents taught both my sister and I that there are no limits to what any one person can accomplish. Thank god HRC's parents did, too.

This is a good day. I hope we never have to celebrate it again.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 12:46 pm
by Guinevere
An example of why it matters so much -- from this morning's Boston Globe:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/20 ... story.html
CANTON — Lawyers and journalists from around the country packed a probate courtroom here for a much-awaited showdown Tuesday between Viacom Inc.’s CEO and his boss, Sumner Redstone. But the first thing on the judge’s mind was not the fate of Redstone’s $40 billion media empire.

It was something perhaps far more important than a bunch of rich people squabbling: the glaring lack of female attorneys in court.


At the start of the hearing, there were so many suits that Probate and Family Court Judge George Phelan asked for all lawyers involved in the case to line up in front of his courtroom for a roll call.

The headcount: 22. Only two were women. He was not happy.

“I’m wondering why there are not more female attorneys among us,” Phelan declared from the bench. “I suppose that’s a question for another day and another place.”

No, it’s about time someone said something. In that moment, Phelan put front and center an issue that has dogged the legal profession for decades. Even with women making up just under half of all law school graduates, a gaping gender gap persists.

Perhaps it’s the long hours, the male-dominated culture, or outright discrimination, but women drop out and account for only about 36 percent of the profession, according to the American Bar Association. Of those who practice, only about 18 percent of women are equity partners at the country’s largest firms, and they earn only 80 percent of the typical male equity partner, according to survey done by the National Association of Women Lawyers.


“It can’t be or shouldn’t be in 2016,” retired federal judge Nancy Gertner said of poor female representation. But “when the stakes in a case go up, the number of women litigators decline.”

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:17 pm
by rubato
On to the least suspenseful presidential election in my lifetime.

Not that I'm complaining, there are enough other things to fret about as it is.


I'm just hoping Trump stays healthy and unindicted until after the first week of November.


yrs,
rubato

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:25 pm
by Bicycle Bill
Guinevere wrote:This is a good day. I hope we never have to celebrate it again.
I'll bet LJ is feeling the same way, but for different reasons.... :lol:
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-"BB"-

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:33 pm
by Lord Jim
I'm happy to support a woman for President...

I just wish it was one of the many I could happily support, rather than one I have to so unhappily support... :? :(

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:38 pm
by Sue U
Congrats on your candidate's win, Guin! The NJ Regular Democrats have always been a Hillary crowd (she beat Obama here 54-44 in 2008), but her victory here last night (63-37) was particularly impressive.

I thought the voter turnout was pretty interesting. Of the 1.8 million registered Democrats in the state, about 860,000 (nearly 48%) voted. On the Republican side, with 1.1 million registered, only 425,000 turned out (about 38%). In both parties it was a foregone conclusion as to who the nominee will be, so there was not much horse-race differential to account for turnout. So it seems it's mostly a matter of party enthusiasm. And that bodes well for Hillary, but not so much for Trump.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:03 pm
by Burning Petard
Least suspenseful election? I can't think of a presidential election, at least in my memory since Truman beat Dewey, that presents a bigger difference between the two major party candidates.

Just look at the size of her hands, or all the pictures of the Donald drinking coffee in some diner or sharing breakfast at a Rotary meeting.

snailgate

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:34 pm
by Lord Jim
Least suspenseful election?
I believe he's referring to suspense regarding the outcome, but he's wrong about that too, (quelle suprise) since his lifetime has included the '64, '72 and '84 elections...

I'm actually hoping for an "unsuspenseful" election...As I've said, I hope Trump loses in a massive landslide...

But recent polls have had the election uncomfortably close...

The current RCP average has Clinton only with a within-the-margin-of-error lead of 2 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

However, if you look at the most recent poll, (which is the only one to be conducted since his racist comments about the Judge) she opened the lead up to five points...

Hopefully now that these attacks have received more publicity, and as he has additional similar outbursts (which are a virtual certainty...he's shown conclusively that he's only capable of reigning in his true nature for short periods of time) and the Democrats become more unified, subsequent polls will have that lead moving out towards double digits or higher...

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:42 pm
by Sue U
Well, I'm looking forward to a Hillary landslide so that I can go back to voting Socialist or Green.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:51 pm
by Lord Jim
Surprisingly enough, that isn't my motivation... 8-)

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:22 pm
by Guinevere
Sue U wrote:Well, I'm looking forward to a Hillary landslide so that I can go back to voting Socialist or Green.
I hope that means you voted for her yesterday and will do so again in November!

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:27 pm
by rubato
Guinevere wrote:
Sue U wrote:Well, I'm looking forward to a Hillary landslide so that I can go back to voting Socialist or Green.
I hope that means you voted for her yesterday and will do so again in November!

I have never been a member of any party but, for the first time, I asked for a Democratic ballot yesterday and inked it in next to her name.


yrs,
rubato

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:30 pm
by rubato
Lord Jim wrote:
Least suspenseful election?
I believe he's referring to suspense regarding the outcome, but he's wrong about that too, (quelle suprise) since his lifetime has included the '64, '72 and '84 elections...
...

While those were not close elections the issue was in greater doubt 4 months before the polls opened than it is this year. I certainly don't recall seeing as many major party figures refusing to support their candidates.


yrs,
rubato

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:37 pm
by Lord Jim
While those were not close elections the issue was in greater doubt 4 months before the polls opened than it is this year.
Are you actually trying to claim that the polls at comparable times in 64, 72, and 84, had Johnson, Nixon, and Reagan leading by less than the 2 point poll average lead that Clinton currently has over Trump?

Really?

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:01 pm
by Sue U
Guinevere wrote:
Sue U wrote:Well, I'm looking forward to a Hillary landslide so that I can go back to voting Socialist or Green.
I hope that means you voted for her yesterday and will do so again in November!
I almost pushed the button for Hillary yesterday, but with both the Spousal Unit and Eldest Spawn voting for her, I felt fine about voting for Bernie just to show there is an actual "left" that the Democrats should take heed of. (It's my usual reason for voting in the D primaries anyway.) And since Hillary won by more than a 25-point margin, she didn't really need my vote to prove anything. (Going into Election Day I knew she was up by double digits, but I frankly didn't think it was going to be that much of spread.)

If the polling in November shows less than a 10-point lead in New Jersey, I will vote for Hillary. If she is again up by double digits, I will vote either Socialist or Green. And either way, I will be fine with President Hillary.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:10 pm
by rubato
Lord Jim wrote:
While those were not close elections the issue was in greater doubt 4 months before the polls opened than it is this year.
Are you actually trying to claim that the polls at comparable times in 64, 72, and 84, had Johnson, Nixon, and Reagan leading by less than the 2 point poll average lead that Clinton currently has over Trump?

Really?

Polls concerning the general election are not meaningful* at this point, certainly less so than the hours of coverage every week about whether particular GOP leaders will back Trump at all and the way those who do are visibly holding their noses . And GOP polls and those done by GOP partisans are crap anyway. Recall how badly off they were in 2012 compared to Nate Silver.

Really.

yrs,
rubato

* Nate Silver says so.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:17 pm
by Bicycle Bill
Sue U wrote:I almost pushed the button for Hillary yesterday, but with both the Spousal Unit and Eldest Spawn voting for her, I felt fine about voting for Bernie just to show there is an actual "left" that the Democrats should take heed of. (It's my usual reason for voting in the D primaries anyway.) And since Hillary won by more than a 25-point margin, she didn't really need my vote to prove anything. (Going into Election Day I knew she was up by double digits, but I frankly didn't think it was going to be that much of spread.)

If the polling in November shows less than a 10-point lead in New Jersey, I will vote for Hillary. If she is again up by double digits, I will vote either Socialist or Green. And either way, I will be fine with President Hillary.
Sue, this is one election that we cannot let get away from us and into the pockets of Donald Trump.  I would suggest that even if Hillary is showing a 20-point lead on November 7th that you still vote for her on the 8th.  The idea here is to repudiate Trump and his bullshit, to utterly humiliate him, to crush him under a landslide of such epic proportions that he will never ever again think that he could campaign for and win any office higher than dog catcher.

The Pinkos or the Greens can get along without you this one year.
Image
-"BB"-

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:36 pm
by Sue U
Bicycle Bill wrote:Sue, this is one election that we cannot let get away from us and into the pockets of Donald Trump. I would suggest that even if Hillary is showing a 20-point lead on November 7th that you still vote for her on the 8th. The idea here is to repudiate Trump and his bullshit, to utterly humiliate him, to crush him under a landslide of such epic proportions that he will never ever again think that he could campaign for and win any office higher than dog catcher.

The Pinkos or the Greens can get along without you this one year.
It is my fervent hope that Trump is thoroughly trounced in November. It is also my fervent hope that U.S. America ultimately rejects the tyrannical duopoly of the capitalist parties and recognizes that there are in fact alternative systems of social, political and economic organization that can make great contributions to our national experiment. Voting to support that vision is also a vote against Trump, and to me, more important than simply adding to the winning candidate's total.

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:41 pm
by Lord Jim
Polls concerning the general election are not meaningful* at this point, certainly less so than the hours of coverage every week about whether particular GOP leaders...
Okay, so my contention that this claim of yours:
the issue was in greater doubt 4 months before the polls opened than it is this year.
is false is based on the comparisons of data gathered through scientific polling methods, and your contention that it is true is based on some theory about nose holding...

Got it...

Re: On to November!

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:12 pm
by rubato
Lord Jim wrote:
Polls concerning the general election are not meaningful* at this point, certainly less so than the hours of coverage every week about whether particular GOP leaders...
Okay, so my contention that this claim of yours:
the issue was in greater doubt 4 months before the polls opened than it is this year.
is false is based on the comparisons of data gathered through scientific polling methods, and your contention that it is true is based on some theory about nose holding...

Got it...

Not all polls are done well or scientifically. Polls are not good predictors this far in advance and polls done by Fox news, or which take an average using their data, are crap.

A better predictor is that when Trump makes a racist comment the GOP don't try to re-spin it or make excuses they say "that is a racist comment".


yrs,
rubato