Independence day

[Gob]

British Prime Minister David Cameron and his eurosceptic opponents made final pitches for wavering voters on Wednesday on the eve of a defining referendum on European Union membership with the outcome still too close to call.



The vote, which echoes the rise of populism elsewhere in Europe and the United States, will shape the continent's future. A victory for "out" could unleash turmoil on financial markets and foreign exchange bureaux reported a surge in demand for foreign currency from Britons wary sterling may fall.

"Quitting Europe is a risk to your family's future because a vote to leave on Thursday means there is no going back on Friday," Cameron said.

Some voters appeared to be heeding his message as three of four polls released on Wednesday showing a move toward staying in the EU. Two still showed a lead for "Leave", while the other two showed a lead for "Remain".

Most pollsters said the result was too close to predict, and would depend on turnout on the day and any late swing among the substantial number of undecided voters.

"It's our last chance to sort this out and take back control," said former London mayor Boris Johnson, the main leader of the Leave campaign and favorite with bookmakers to replace Cameron in the event of Brexit.

Polling company ComRes said "Remain" now looked likely to win after it reported a 6 percentage point lead in a survey for the Daily Mail and broadcaster ITV.

"The burning question now is whether Remain's win will be of a sufficient margin to settle the issue of EU membership for a generation, as David Cameron put it," ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins said.

Sterling surged to its highest so far this year against the dollar after the ComRes poll, and online betting market Betfair priced in an 80 percent chance Britain would stay in the EU.

Cameron has promised further reform if Britain stays in the EU, but European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker warned there would be no further renegotiation whatever the result on Thursday, after EU leaders reached a deal on a new settlement for Britain in February.

French President Francois Hollande said a vote to leave could seriously jeopardize British access to the EU's prized single market.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she did not want to speculate on what dangers would arise if Britain left, because she wanted it to stay in the Union.

The referendum will take place a week after the murder of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox shocked the country, raising questions about the tone of an increasingly bitter four-month campaign.

Much of the debate has boiled down to two issues: the economy and immigration.

The City of London financial center, the International Monetary Fund and the majority of British business leaders back Cameron and his Remain camp's stance that to leave the EU would plunge Britain into recession, costing jobs and raising prices.

Supporters of a so-called Brexit have struck a chord with many voters by saying Britain would regain control of immigration if it cut itself loose from a bloc they see as domineering and out of touch.

In what has become an ugly and personal fight, both camps have been accused of using unfounded assertions and scare tactics. Remain campaigners accuse their opponents of resorting to the politics of hate; the Leave camp say their rivals have run a "Project Fear" to scare voters about the economic risks.

Both sides hit the road and the airwaves to appeal to the large number of undecided voters who will be decisive, along with the level of turnout.

If turnout is big, "leave" will win. If turnout is small "Remain" will win

[Lord Jim]

In what has become an ugly and personal fight, both camps have been accused of using unfounded assertions and scare tactics.

Welcome to my world...

British politics is becoming more and more like American politics every day....

[Long Run]

If turnout is big, "leave" will win. If turnout is small "Remain" will win

How could turnout not be big?

[Gob]

Apathy rules.


If that's ok with you?

[Lord Jim]

Apathy rules.

Just like I said...

More like American politics every day....

[Lord Jim]

Could Australia swing the UK’s EU vote?

Australians sending in postal votes for the upcoming UK referendum on European Union membership could have considerable influence on the result, writes Julian Lorkin.

Fresh from Australia's success at Eurovision - when contestant Dami Im came in second - many Australian residents are about to cast a much more important vote on Europe and its future.

Anyone with a British passport who lives Down Under is eligible to participate in the UK's referendum on exiting the EU if they have registered to vote in the past 15 years.

With 1.2 million British nationals in Australia, and 250,000 in New Zealand, both the stay and leave camps are in full campaign mode half a world away from the UK. Southern hemisphere votes have the potential to swing the knife-edge referendum.

Posters supporting both sides have sprouted in areas popular with UK residents. In some locations, such as Perth, up to 15% of the population was born in England.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-36573622

June 23, 2016

British European Union Membership Referendum Results ITV News at Ten anchor Tom Bradby hosts live coverage of the United Kingdom’s referendum vote on the future of U.K. membership in the European Union. Coverage includes polling station results, analysis, and reaction from the EU.
This program has not yet aired

Airing LIVE Thursday, Jun 23 5:00pm EDT on C-SPAN.org

http://www.c-span.org/video/?411528-1/b ... ins-5pm-et

[Guinevere]

Mother Nature votes REMAIN - torrential rains and flooding in London today.

[Lord Jim]

LONDON — It's voting day and once again, the Brits are talking about the weather — this time for a reason. After all, it may just be the weather that decides the future of Britain's relationship with the European Union.

People are heading to the polls to choose whether to remain in the 28-nation bloc, but rain showers and massive flooding have caused logistical chaos for voters, potentially preventing thousands from casting their vote.

This is particularly bad news for the “remain” campaign, which has been scrambling in the final days before the referendum to galvanize its more apathetic supporters to come out and vote.

The latest polls show a neck-and-neck split between the two camps, with a slight edge for "remain." But according to YouGov pollsters, supporters of the “leave” campaign are unlikely to be deterred, come hell or high water.

As one “remain” official told the Telegraph: “This is the biggest decision our country will take for a generation but one of the few things not on the ballot paper is the British weather.”

If the weather determines the outcome of the Brexit vote, it will absolutely be something worth talking about, for years and years to come.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... g-the-e-u/

[Guinevere]

Which directly contradicts Gob's theory of the turnout.....demonstrating that no one really can predict the outcome.

I understand British polling is particularly inaccurate and so probably not a good indicator either.

[Lord Jim]

Unlike normal general elections there won’t be any exit polls at 10 p.m. London time, or 5 p.m. Eastern Time, when the voting stations close, so anyone nervously waiting for the outcome will have to stay awake and watch for local results to trickle out overnight.

That’s because none of the British broadcasters have commissioned any exit polls because of concerns over accuracy, according to the Telegraph newspaper.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-w ... 2016-06-21

[Guinevere]

Yep - will just have to do to the old fashioned way --- by counting the actual votes.

[Big RR]

Counting the votes... oh, the horror!

[Scooter]

[Lord Jim]

[Sue U]

Canada looks better and better all the time.

[RayThom]

As expected, it appears this will be a close call.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... -and-odds/

[Lord Jim]

The polls have the vote a statistical tie, (and the polls in the UK don't have a great track record recently either...the polls right before the last general election vote showed a tight race, and it wound up being a Tory landslide) and on top of that you have the wild card of the MP murder last week and now the additional wild card of bad weather...

Taking all of that into consideration, I wouldn't put five cents on the outcome of this vote either way...

It could wind up very close, or it could just as easily wind up being a six or seven point victory either way, depending on who turns out to vote...

Even though the count will take a while, there will probably be some early indicators as the results come in, if one side or the other under-performs expectations or turn out in the first localities that report...

For example, if in a locality where one would expect a strong preference for Remain, and Remain carries it 52-48, that would be a bad sign for Remain...

Or for another example, if voter turnout is lower than expected in early reporting localities that are considered Leave strongholds, that would be a bad sign for Leave...

[Sue U]

From the Pearls of Wisdom Department:

It could wind up very close, or it could just as easily wind up being a six or seven point victory either way, depending on who turns out to vote...

Um, that's pretty much the case in every election, innit?

[MajGenl.Meade]

...or as my daughter used to ask her friends, "Do you want to do something or something?"

[RayThom]

UPDATE:
23 June 2016 • 11:19pm (London time)
New YouGov poll: Remain 52%, Leave 48%

It looks like "remain" has squeaked by.