Plan B Forum

20 Apr 2017

Macron: 23.8%

LePen: 22.1%

Fillon: 19.6%

Melenchon: 19%

Hamon: 7.6%

French election 2017: Who are the candidates?

There are four front-runners and, as none is likely to secure an outright majority, a run-off between the two leading candidates is now expected on 7 May.

For the first time in 15 years, the far-right National Front has a realistic chance of winning the race under Marine Le Pen. Centrist Emmanuel Macron is challenging her in the opinion polls.

The former favourite, centre-right Republican François Fillon, is still in the race despite being investigated over alleged misuse of public funds. So is far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is enjoying a late surge in support.

For the first time in modern French history, the incumbent - Socialist President François Hollande - is not running for a second term because of poor ratings.

The dizzying rise and fall of French Socialist presidential hopeful Benoît Hamon

France’s ruling Socialist Party appears headed for an historic drubbing. Crowned the mainstream left’s presidential nominee in January, Benoît Hamon could fail to clear even single digit support in Sunday’s all-important first-round vote.

On the last Monday before France’s April 23 first-round presidential ballot, a crowd gathered to cheer on far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon near the iconic Place de la Bastille in eastern Paris. Sylvia Jacques, a 60-year-old hospital administrator, was among those who joined the festive event. She was once tempted to back Hamon in the election, until the Socialist’s plummeting figures persuaded her to go with Mélenchon. “I liked Hamon, it’s too bad his campaigned flopped,” she said wistfully. “The opinion polls killed his campaign.”

Indeed, according to recent surveys, Hamon – whose party currently governs the country -- is likely to finish the race in an embarrassing fifth place; behind a far-right populist, a scandal-plagued conservative, a centrist without a party, and a Chairman Mao-overcoat-wearing leftist, no less. On Wednesday evening, he rallied supporters in central Paris in a make-or-break final campaign push. Thousands of supporters packed out the famed Place de la République, much to his campaign team’s relief.

It wasn’t always the case. Hamon emerged as the commanding winner of the Socialist Party’s presidential primary earlier this year, riding a wave of momentum that many believed could carry him all the way.

However, his sharp decline in many ways mirrored his ascension.

Often derided within his own party as “Petit Benoît”, or Little Benoît, the former education minister who had a falling out with President François Hollande and former prime minister Manuel Valls was originally given little chance of winning the Socialist primary. But bold policy proposals – including a basic income for all citizens – and cool control during the televised debates propelled him to the top. Beating Valls in the primary run-off on January 29, he enjoyed around 20 percent support at the start of the race for the presidential Elysée Palace.

Hamon was never going to have it easy. As the nominee of the Socialist Party, he was now carrying the baggage of President Hollande’s unpopular tenure, even though he had quit the government in protest of its pro-market policies. Valls, his constant rival in the primary, had also spent weeks repeating that a vote for Hamon meant “certain failure” in the general election. However, for many left-wing voters, Hamon’s victory represented hope that the Socialist Party would return to its roots. Socialist voters hoped he was a long, but still legitimate, shot at the presidency in 2017.

Fast-forward 11 weeks. With only seven days left in the campaign, Hamon is forecast to claim a derisory eight percent of the vote. His campaign is hemorrhaging support and his career – and the Socialist Party itself – may not recover for decades.

The gunman killed after shooting dead a policeman on the Champs Elysees has been named by the Paris prosecutor as Karim Cheurfi, a convicted criminal.
He used a Kalashnikov assault rifle to kill the police officer with two bullets to the head, François Molins told journalists in the French capital.
A note defending so-called Islamic State was found near his body.
Candidates in Sunday's presidential election have been accused of exploiting the attack politically

Earlier Donald Trump claimed the latest ISIS terror attack on Paris will boost far right candidate Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming French president.

The US leader spoke out as a last minute poll revealed tough-talking Len Pen has received 'a modest increase in support' since the gun attack in the French capital.

The US president said the shooting would "probably" help Le Pen in Sunday's election because she is "strongest on borders, and she's the strongest on what's been going on in France."

"Whoever is the toughest on radical Islamic terrorism, and whoever is the toughest at the borders, will do well in the election," he said.

Donald Trump Is Now America’s Marine Le Pen
By John Cassidy December 7, 2015

Recent terror attacks in France

7-9 Jan 2015 - Two Islamist gunmen storm the Paris offices of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, killing 17 people. Another Islamist militant kills a policewoman the next day and takes hostages at a Jewish supermarket in Paris. Four hostages are killed before police shoot the gunman dead. The other two gunmen are cornered and killed by police in a siege.

13 Nov 2015 - IS jihadists armed with bombs and assault rifles attack Paris, targeting the national stadium, cafes and Bataclan concert hall. The co-ordinated assault leaves 130 people dead, and more than 350 wounded.

13 Jun 2016 -A knife-wielding jihadist kills a police officer and his partner at their home in Magnanville, west of Paris. He declares allegiance to IS, and police later kill him.

14 Jul 2016 - A huge lorry mows down a crowd of people on the Nice beachfront during Bastille Day celebrations, killing 86. IS claims the attack - by a Tunisian-born driver, later shot dead by police.

26 Jul 2016 - Two attackers slits the throat of a priest at his church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, in Normandy. They are shot dead by police.

3 Feb 2017 - A machete-wielding Egyptian man shouting "Allahu akbar" attacks French soldiers at Paris's Louvre Museum - he is shot and wounded.

20 Apr 2017 - A convicted criminal who was investigated for threatening to kill police opens fire at police on the Champs Elysees in Paris, killing one and wounding two. He is shot dead - and the assault is claimed by IS.

The centrist Emmanuel Macron will face far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a run-off for the French presidency on 7 May, near-final results show.
With 96% of votes counted from Sunday's first round, Mr Macron has 23.9% with Ms Le Pen on 21.4%

BoSoxGal wrote:History is happening all around me.

I'm not sure if I agree with much of it.

I'm even less sure that matters.



I've decided to stop paying much attention.

Gob wrote:... Very close, but Le Pen has no chance in the run-offs.

RayThom wrote:

Gob wrote:... Very close, but Le Pen has no chance in the run-offs.

To paraphrase: Very close, but Trump has no chance in the election.

That was then... this is now.