Plan B Forum

"... Hence the stages of grief for Leavers. They have been led to believe, by newspapers and politicians, that as long as the negotiations are played right all will be well: the bargaining stage of grief. Unfortunately for them they are still living in the fantasy world created by the Brexit media and unchallenged by the broadcast media. The fantasy is to view the forthcoming EU negotiations as some great battle of wills. As Stephen Fisher notes, the negotiations are constantly framed in pugilistic terms. This is why the Conservatives are polling at around 45%, despite all the mistakes of the Tory campaign.

Hence, also, the attraction of the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ line. Leavers need to believe that walking away is a credible threat that will unlock the benefits of Brexit. But the reality is painfully different. If you want an eloquent explanation of this read Martin Wolf if you can, otherwise here is the short version. The EU knows that No Deal would be a disaster for the UK. It would be painful for the EU too, but not so painful as to make them offer the UK any significant favours. Their overriding objective is to ensure the UK will be worse off under Brexit, not as some punishment but to ensure EU survival. Given that No Deal will be so much worse for the UK than the EU, and as the clock is already ticking, the EU are in a position where they can pretty well dictate terms. To the extent that this is a game, we lost it the moment Article 50 was triggered. ..."

Simon Wren-Lewis


Mainly Macro
Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, and a fellow of Merton College. This blog is written for both economists and non-economists.

Fifty-our per cent of adults quizzed in the ICM survey wanted the Prime Minister to avoid any delay in breaking ties with Brussels.

And more than quarter of those who opposed Brexit in the referendum now want the departure to proceed at the fastest possible rate so the Government can "take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade.’

The majority support for a rapid EU exit was shown in a poll of more than 2,000 voters commissioned by Change Britain to mark six months since the historic referendum vote to quit the bloc.

Lord Jim wrote:The Stages Of Grief:

1.Denial:

"No, I didn't do it; I was not stupid enough to open a thread started by rubato"

2.Anger:

"God damn it! How could I have been so stupid as to open a thread started by rubato? I should know better by now. "

3.Bargaining:

"Okay, if God will just help to forget that I opened this stupid thread, I promise never, ever, ever again to be stupid enough to open a thread started by rubato."

4.Depression:

"Oh it's no use...I just can't forget what I saw when I opened this stupid thread started by rubato"

5. Acceptance:

Okay, I was stupid enough to open a thread started by rubato. I'm just going to have to live with that."