Plan B Forum

The current USofA international policy seems intended to make us a lonely Nr. One with nobody else around. POTUS has scorned NATO, EU, Pacific Rim agreements, Pan-Asia agreements. The experts and old hands are fleeing the State Department. He wants to go it alone, as long as they give him wonderful parties. This has consequences. China is eating our lunch in Africa. It is building a very modern rail network connecting China with Europe. It is expanding its claims in the South China Sea to the point that Viet Nam and the Philippines barely mutter in protest.

Now China seems to even have Austrailia in thrall. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/20/worl ... odayspaper

Any one here with a better view of these circumstances?

snailgate

On top of all that you mentioned, China is already #1 in production of photovoltaic panels and electric vehicles—technologies of the FUTURE—while our pResident brags about trying to resuscitate production of coal and oil—technologies of the PAST.

I have frequently said that if I were 30 years younger, I would seriously consider relocating to Shanghai, which seems to be the city of the future.

“This is the first case, I believe, where a major Western publisher has decided to censor material critical of China in its home country,” Mr. Hamilton said in an interview. “Many people are deeply offended by this attack on free speech, and people see a basic value that defines Australia being undermined.”

That's scary, will look into this further...

The core of the "Trump Doctrine" (such as it is) is the abandonment of the United States' preeminent role in The Western Alliance, and in global leadership generally...

A role supported by every President of both parties since WW II, (and one that the hardcore Trumpanzees are gleeful to see the US abandon...the same know-nothings who have shown up in polls for years saying they believe the US spends between 10 and 20 percent of its budget on foreign aid...when the actual number is less than one per cent...)

It is completely predictable, that when the United States retreats from this role, that bad actors, (like China and Russia) will move to fill it...(or at least parts of it...)

Yet another reason for why Trump's departure from power can't come soon enough...

Sue U wrote:I have frequently said that if I were 30 years younger, I would seriously consider relocating to Shanghai, which seems to be the city of the future.

What makes you think the Chinese are any better than the Russians? I will grant you that if you are homosexual you would be better off in China than Russia. But, if I have to have a master I would prefer Russia over China. Since we can physically pass as Russian my family might be able to avoid discrimination by assimilating as Russian.

Lord Jim wrote:The core of the "Trump Doctrine" (such as it is) is the abandonment of the United States' preeminent role in The Western Alliance, and in global leadership generally...

A role supported by every President of both parties since WW II, (and one that the hardcore Trumpanzees are gleeful to see the US abandon...the same know-nothings who have shown up in polls for years saying they believe the US spends between 10 and 20 percent of its budget on foreign aid...when the actual number is less than one per cent...)

It is completely predictable, that when the United States retreats from this role, that bad actors, (like China and Russia) will move to fill it...(or at least parts of it...)

Yet another reason for why Trump's departure from power can't come soon enough...

Jim, do really think all we have to do is get rid of trump and everything will be ok? Other than Australia and half of Britain we don’t have an ally that is worth a damn. Of the others, we would be better off without them; they would just in the way.

I have heard people refer to Mexico as an US ally. What a joke that is. During the Cold War they were a friend and supporter of Cuba.

Jim, do really think all we have to do is get rid of trump and everything will be ok

No, I don't think that, and of course it doesn't remotely resemble anything I have ever said...

We're going to be faced with serious international challenges no matter who is President, and other Presidents will certainly make mistakes in dealing with them, (Lord knows our two most recent Presidents....Obama and Bush 43...both made more than their fair share of them...)

But by removing Trump, we will no longer have a President whose central strategy is American abandonment of global leadership, which is making all of the challenges far, far worse...

And creating power vacuums all over the world for powerful, dictatorial, adversary regimes to fill and exploit...(Like the Chinese are doing in the Pacific, and the Russians are doing in the Mid-East)

So no, removing Trump won't make "everything ok" but no longer having a President actively pursuing a global doctrine that will do nothing but bring greater peril to the US would be a very good start. (We tried the isolationist approach after WW I in the 20s and 30s...that didn't work out so well...I really wish all the folks who think it's a spiffy idea for the US to retreat from global engagement would occasionally pick up a history book...)

Other than Australia and half of Britain we don’t have an ally that is worth a damn. Of the others, we would be better off without them

Thanks for posting that lib...

That is a splendid example of exactly the sort of uninformed/misinformed view that I was talking about in the post you quoted. (the lack of factual knowledge that Trump so skillfully inflamed and exploited)

I have heard people refer to Mexico as an US ally. What a joke that is.

No ally is going to adopt polices that agree with ours 100% of the time. That's not how it works. Overall we have had a good working relationship with Mexico on a host of bilateral issues. Do you think we would be better off if we pursued the sorts of hostile polices Trump proposes, which would destabilize the Mexican economy, (vastly increasing the flow of illegals across the border) and vastly improve the chances of a left-wing virulently Anti-American regime coming to power?

Gee lib, I never figured you as being a supporter of leftists coming to power...

liberty wrote:What makes you think the Chinese are any better than the Russians? I will grant you that if you are homosexual you would be better off in China than Russia. But, if I have to have a master I would prefer Russia over China. Since we can physically pass as Russian my family might be able to avoid discrimination by assimilating as Russian.

You may be shocked to find out that not everyone else in the world is as racist as you are.

Sue U wrote:

liberty wrote:What makes you think the Chinese are any better than the Russians? I will grant you that if you are homosexual you would be better off in China than Russia. But, if I have to have a master I would prefer Russia over China. Since we can physically pass as Russian my family might be able to avoid discrimination by assimilating as Russian.

You may be shocked to find out that not everyone else in the world is as racist as you are.

Survival is racist, how about that. Racist racist racist racist racist the word that has no meaning just used by liberals as a manipulative tool, but the more it is misused the less power it has.

Or perhaps you are saying the Chinese can’t be racist. If you believe that you really are a silly liberal. All people are capable of racism. And, the Chinese are one of the most homogeneous people on earth

liberty wrote: And, the Chinese are one of the most homogeneous people on earth

Not really. There are dozens of 'tribes' (for want of a better word - really family associations) well known to the average Chinese person. Some get on and some don't. The divide between the citified middle classes and the poorer country peasants is growing and will probably cause bigger problems in the years to come.

I think you'd better send back those "Learn Russian" language tapes, liberty, and exchange them for the "Learn Mandarin" tapes. Russia is a declining former empire, with both GDP and population numbers shrinking—unlike both China and the U.S.A. (Jeez, nobody wants to move there except you and Edward Snowden!) They have no industries in which they excel—hell, practically no industries at all except for oil/mineral extraction and internet trolling. And why would they even want to conquer the North American arctic? They already have plenty of land, and not enough people to fill it.

I think that the US and our allies still have a chance to prevail over Chinese expansion, or at least delay it for another century or more...but only if Trump stops tossing those allies overboard and his supporters start looking toward the future rather than an imaginary utopian past.

• ...do really think all we have to do is get rid of trump and everything will be ok?

The First Rule of Holes: "When you're in one, stop digging." (See also: The Second Rule of Holes.)

Econoline wrote:On top of all that you mentioned, China is already #1 in production of photovoltaic panels and electric vehicles—technologies of the FUTURE—while our pResident brags about trying to resuscitate production of coal and oil—technologies of the PAST.

At the end of the Carter administration we were the world leaders of photovoltaics and were getting all the important patents. At the end of the Carter administration came Reagan who fucked us to the back of the line by killing investment. Japan and Germany took over technical dominance after that.

China has turbo-charged their photo-voltaic business by installing more PV-power than the rest of the world combined by government fiat. We could have been them with vision and investment. (We still have the highest efficiency panels by Sun Power who are a tick better than Panasonic)

yrs,
rubato

I have a Contax IIIa film camera. It was a major competitor with the Lieca IIIf. Contax had a bigger Fstop, faster metal shutter than you could get with a Leica. I also have a Russian made copy of that Contax model. Looks exactly like the original--until you pick it up and move ANY of the controls. They are all rough. Feels like all the parts were only rough cut with no polish or hand fitting. Never tried to actually take a picture with it so I cannot compare the lens quality. That seems to be typical Russian manufacturing. Those who have worked in the International Space Laboratory say it is easy to tell if you are in the portion made in Russia, or made in USofA. The Russian side is blatantly crude--finished with a hammer and a bigger hammer. But it does work, and now only the Russians are moving crew up there and back.

snailgate

More on the subject of our allies...

• • Why I'm Thankful for Japan and South Korea
    We're not alone in this dangerous world.
    BY ROBERT BATEMAN | NOV 24, 2017

  Amid all the hand-wringing about the potential for a military conflict in East Asia, most American news reports focus on what the United States would do in any scrap—as if we would be going it alone. You hear almost nothing about Japanese and South Korean military capabilities. At best, most news stories make a passing reference to a general US war plan, with a nod towards one nation or the other. At the same time, domestic outlets tend to work themselves into a tizzy about a few Russian bombers cruising near Alaska or buzzing one of our ships near their own borders.
  
  But the Japanese and South Koreans are much more prepared than many Americans know, and with good reason: They're a lot closer to the danger. We're involved in episodic events a few times per year, but for them, it's an almost hourly occurrence.
  
  To put things into perspective, think about the few incidents of Russian bombers coming near the US coastline that have made the news in the last year or two. Probably fewer than a dozen came anywhere near the US. But, last year alone, the Japanese Self-Defense Force dealt with a total of 1,168 air incursions into their Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that they had to scramble jets to intercept. More than 850 of those military aircraft intrusions into Japanese-controlled airspace came from China. Several hundred came from Russia.
  
  In both cases, Japan is also actively involved in territorial disputes with those countries. China, for example, has not just been intruding on Japanese airspace, they are coming into Japanese areas on the sea, and have been for several years. And, of course, that’s leaving aside the fact that North Korea has been shooting missiles over the top of their islands. It is no wonder, then, that Japan has what is probably the most sophisticated ballistic missile defense setup behind the US. They are also once again actively fielding aircraft carriers, even if, for linguistic reasons, they call their carriers “helicopter destroyers.”
  
  Meanwhile, South Korea, with a population of 51 million, has an active-duty Army that is actually a little bigger than the active US Army (490,000, versus our current 483,000 at the end of last year). At the same time, their reserve forces dwarf the US National Guard and Reserve elements. We have a total of about 820,000 part-time or emergency forces, but South Korea maintains a force of more than three million. And this is no mere mass of untrained cannon-fodder. The South Korean Army has some 2,400 tanks, and another 2,600 armored vehicles of other types.
  
  To put this another way, the US Army has a total of 10 active-duty divisions, plus the equivalent of two or three more in non-divisional units. We have several more divisions in the National Guard, but those units generally take several months to come up to speed as trained organizations, so they are not of much use in a sudden fight. In contrast, the Republic of Korea fields a total of 49 divisions, and the equivalent of another six in non-divisional units. In other words, nearly five times what the US can put into the field around the entire planet. They can draw on their entire nation for the support they need in any fight on their own territory, and they are not designed for “expeditionary” warfare. They have one acid test, and they already experienced what happens if they are seen as “weak” by the North Koreans.
  
  Along the same lines, here in the US, the deployment of twelve F-35 Joint Strike Fighters is somehow a big deal. Between Japan and Korea, we have only four "Wings" of USAF fighters based in the region, plus a few more squadrons of USMC aircraft in Japan. We can obviously fly in more, but it’s those roughly 60-72 aircraft that would carry the load initially in any sort of flare-up. However, people tend to forget that South Korea has 450 combat aircraft of their own, and Japan some 200 more.
  
  In short, it is worth remembering that sometimes our military-related jitters are just that, and not a whole lot more. We are not alone, and we should not forget that.