Election 2020

[Lord Jim]

Regarding a veep pick for Biden, I have become a fan of Val Demings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Val_Demings

I was first impressed by the quality of her questioning of witnesses on the Intel Committee during the impeachment inquiry, and became even more impressed watching her as an Impeachment manager (particularly her closing statement.)

Very smart and an energetic, ready-for-prime time quality public speaker she would bring a lot of strengths to the ticket. In addition to being an African American woman, she's also from Florida, a very important state to try to move back to the Dems column. (She has cross party appeal, winning now twice in a district previously represented by a Republican) Also, as a 27 year veteran of the Orlando Police Department, (culminating with a stint as OPD Police Chief, where she was credited with being responsible for bringing down the city's rate of violent crime) she can hardly be tagged as some sort of thug hugging bleeding heart...

Demings ticks a lot of important electoral boxes. I hope Biden gives her very serious consideration.

[BoSoxGal]

I think he’s given indications that he’s bullish on Stacey Abrams, who also ticks a lot of boxes. Either would be an excellent choice.

[Guinevere]

Both names have come up in articles, tweets, and other media I've seen over the weekend. Also Amy Klobuchar, who can help deliver the Midwest, and Kamala Harris who served with his son Beau in the State Attorney General's Association.

I hadn't read much about Val Demings before, she has some excellent qualifications and I love Stacey Abrams.

I do expect that the BernieBots will scream about Demings' law enforcement background. They are all over Biden right now as being too tough on crime/criminals/anti-civil rights, etc. I'm not going to re-spout their junk, nor do I think Biden should pay it much attention -- expect he does have to unify the party and Demings plays right into that "issue."

[Lord Jim]

Joe Biden leads Bernie Sanders by a comfortable margin in a series of Michigan polls released before the state’s pivotal Democratic primary on Tuesday.

The Vermont senator has looked for a win in Michigan as he tries to keep pace with the former vice president in the pledged delegate race and stem Biden’s rise after a strong Super Tuesday showing earlier this month. Biden appears well positioned to carry Michigan, a delegate-rich state that Sanders has focused on winning in recent days, according to surveys.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday found Biden leading Sanders 51% to 36% among likely Democratic primary voters. It follows surveys from Mitchell Research and Epic-MRA and the Detroit Free Press in recent days showing a more than 20 percentage point lead for Biden in Michigan.

A Biden victory of that magnitude would deal a potentially crippling blow to Sanders’ chances. Sanders won Michigan in 2016. He fell behind Biden in the pledged delegate race after Super Tuesday this year. He also could lose a few of the other five states voting Tuesday, particularly Mississippi and Missouri, by big margins.

[Crackpot]

I hope he does win here. Dropped of at least one vote for him at least an hour ago. Suspect the wife voted Bernie. Almost positive my mom did as well. Bernie definitely has a chance here since he beat Clinton here last time. Here’s to hoping he loses decisively and it hastens his graceful departure.

Hey a guy can dream.

[Lord Jim]

Mississippi called for Biden as soon as the polls closed...Sanders may not hit the 15% threshold in MS; (he's doing worse than he did in 2016) that would give Biden a 36 delegate sweep in the state...(He's already won 21)

Missouri just now also called for Biden...(Clinton beat Sanders by less than a point in MO four years ago; his margin of defeat will be much larger this time)

Biden up 43-15 in delegates that been awarded so far tonight, with more to be decided in just those two states....

[Guinevere]

Michigan for Biden, 53-45ish.

Totals so far: Biden 100 delegates to Bernie 44. Three more states (and 119 more delegates) to award.

1991 needed to win. Biden stands at 770 to Bernie’s 618.

[Lord Jim]

Biden up 16 points in Michigan with nearly all the vote counted, 53-37...in addition to getting 66% of the black vote, Joe also beat Bernie among both college educated and non-college educated whites...

Crushed it in Missouri; a 25% margin Biden win...

In Mississippi, Sanders currently running under 15%, nay not qualify for a single delegate...

Biden declared the winner in Idaho, a state Sanders won by a huge margin in 2016...

With 67% of the vote counted Washington state is a dead heat, 32% and a fraction a piece. Since most of what's left to be counted is late voting, Biden's got a real shot at pulling out an upset win in WA as well...

Sanders currently leads in North Dakota by 6 points, (another state he won big in 2016) but there's a lot of the vote left to be counted...(The state only has 14 delegates total to award)

After this, and teed up for four more losses in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida next week, and polls not showing him leading anywhere after that, a normal candidate would probably be looking at hanging it up, but Sanders of course is not a normal candidate...

Oh no, he's the leader of a "movement", don't you know...(A "movement" that does worse the larger the voter turnout...)

The good news is that at least so far the usually loquacious Sanders has said nothing and issued no statements about his dreadful performance yesterday, or his plans going forward...

Fingers crossed...

ETA:

As of 2 a.m. ET, Biden had been allocated 820 delegates so far in the race and Bernie Sanders had been allocated 670.

That's about double the lead Biden had going into yesterday's contests, and with more to be allocated, Joe may be closing in on a 200 delegate vote lead when all the counting is done...

[Guinevere]

Here’s the (obvious) thing about young voters - even if they turn out and vote at 18 or 22, they always grow up. When they have homes, families, careers, etc their voting preferences often change accordingly. In a nation that’s growing older, not younger, relying on the youth as a long-term strategy doesn’t make any sense.

The other significant flaw in Bernie’s strategy is that he isn’t trying to build coalitions and expand the reach of his message. He is relying only on “Berners” and getting them to vote in record numbers. When that turnout fails to deliver, there is no backup plan (and thus, Biden trounces him). His entire strategy was focussed on getting a plurality, not a majority of delegates. That’s (IMO) short-sighted and stupid, because of likely (now actual) consolidation, and it doesn’t provide broad enough support for success in the general, or success governing.

[Guinevere]

ETA:

As of 2 a.m. ET, Biden had been allocated 820 delegates so far in the race and Bernie Sanders had been allocated 670.

That's about double the lead Biden had going into yesterday's contests, and with more to be allocated, Joe may be closing in on a 200 delegate vote lead when all the counting is done...

I was hoping Biden could get to 50% of the necessary delegates by tonight, but not enough awarded to get him there. Hopefully it will only take another week.

Of course, in 2016 HRC was up by 400 and only 100 short of a majority going into the convention (and superdelegates were counted towards the number of delegates required to win), and that didn’t stop Bernie. In 2008 the margin was just under 100 between HRC and Obama. Meanwhile Berners are all over social media claiming “its not over” yet. It’s most definitely over.

[Guinevere]

One last point - women voted for Biden over Bernie in MI by a 20 point margin. That’s a necessary constituency for the general (especially given the ridiculous numbers of idiotic white women/KellyAnne wannabees who voted for Trump). Hopefully Biden cuts into that group.

Picking a female running mate will only help (even more essential if Trump really dumps Pence and goes with Nikki Haley).

[Big RR]

I honestly wonder if Haley is stupid enough to tie her long term political future to Trump; yes, he has his supporters, but being his VP will tarnish her chances for any other aspirations in the future. People will eventually see Trump for the idiot that he is, and those most closely tied with him will be tarnished forever.

[BoSoxGal]

Anybody who hasn’t yet seen Trump for the idiot he is isn’t ever going to at this point.

[Big RR]

I disagree, there are many people throughout history who were quite popular (and even had avid followers like Trump), and later seen for what they were. And, as they fall from grace, people who wildly applauded them jump on another bandwagon and join those who criticize them. IMHO, Trump will just be another one of them. And then all his supporters will deny every having supported him.

[Bicycle Bill]

Every year for the past twenty-two years, the Convention and Visitors Bureau of La Crosse WI (the people in charge of promoting tourism, etc. for the area) have been sponsoring La Crosse Area Day at Miller Park for one of the of the home games for the Milwaukee Brewers.  For a flat price — eighty bucks this year — you get a bus ride from La Crosse to the game and back, a fairly good ticket (usually in the second deck, just behind the box seats, along the right-field line), a tailgate party set up at the park with beer, soda, brats, hot dogs, burger, chips, etc., and there's usually a visit by the mascots and/or the Famous Racing Sausages.  One year Bob Uecker even showed up for a short time!

So last night I went to the "opening pitch" party that kicked off this year's event to buy my ticket at "early-bird" prices, and this guy — Bernie Brewer — was there.



Now THERE'S a Bernie I could vote for!  And even though his head is mostly foam and fabric, he couldn't any worse of a job in the White House than Trump has been doing.

-"BB"-

[dales]

I disagree, there are many people throughout history who were quite popular (and even had avid followers like Trump), and later seen for what they were. And, as they fall from grace, people who wildly applauded them jump on another bandwagon and join those who criticize them. IMHO, Trump will just be another one of them. And then all his supporters will deny every having supported him.

Like all good Germans Americans, they were only following orders.

[Guinevere]

Did anyone watch the “debate”? I wasn’t able to, not that I could bear it anyway.

[Lord Jim]

I watched it. I thought Biden did pretty well, and really seemed like he was comfortable, energetic, and pretty much in command of the debate pace. He parried Sanders attacks on some of his votes very smoothly; he obviously came well prepared.

There were several spirited exchanges, but nothing really nasty...

I thought it was kind of funny when I saw Sanders suggesting after the debate that they might want to delay tomorrow's primaries in light of the Corona virus... (Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida; 577 total delegates at stake)

I immediately thought, "I'll just bet you'd like to see those primaries delayed Bern, in light of the fact that you're likely to receive an ass whuppin' in all four of them..."

[MajGenl.Meade]

[Lord Jim]

Like I said, a four-way ass whuppin':

Joe Biden Leads By Double-Digits In Florida, Ohio and Illinois Ahead of Tuesday Votes: Polls
By James Walker On 3/14/20 at 5:48 AM EDT

Joe Biden has a double-digit lead over Bernie Sanders in three states set to vote in Democratic primaries on Tuesday, new polls have found.

The surveys published by Emerson College and Nexstar on Thursday night put former Vice President Biden more than 20 points ahead of Sen. Sanders (I-Vt.) in Illinois, Ohio, and Florida — the three states offering the most delegates on March 17.

Biden performed best in the Florida poll, with 65 percent of very likely primary voters in the state backing the former vice president and giving him strong odds of winning most of Florida's 219 pledged delegates.

His performance in the Sunshine State put him 28 points above Sen. Sanders, who was supported by little more than a quarter (27 percent) of voters.

The former vice president's leads over his progressive challenger were slimmer in Illinois and Ohio, [but not much] which are offering a combined 291 pledged delegates on Tuesday.

Fifty-seven percent of very likely primary voters in both states told pollsters that they would vote for Biden while 35 percent of Ohioans and 36 percent of Illinois Democrats said they would back Sanders.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-lead ... ls-1492314

Poll: Biden leads Sanders in Arizona

The former vice president has a big lead with voters who have already cast their ballots.

Joe Biden holds a significant lead over Bernie Sanders in Arizona, one of four states holding Democratic presidential primaries on Tuesday amid the nation’s coronavirus outbreak, according to a new poll released Monday.

The Monmouth University poll shows Biden leading Sanders, 51 percent to 31 percent. Five percent of Democratic primary voters are undecided, and the remainder include 1 percent who back Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and a little over 10 percent of voters who cast early ballots for candidates who have since left the race.

Biden’s advantage in Arizona mirrors that of the other three states voting Tuesday: The former vice president also holds large leads over Sanders in Florida, Illinois and Ohio.

Among those who said they have already cast their ballots, Biden leads by 33 points, 50 percent to 27 percent.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/1 ... ona-130517

Hit it Dandy Don: