Election 2020

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Econoline
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Econoline »

Guinevere wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:18 pm
Why does the Democratic Party have to be held hostage to the cultish supporters of a non-Democrat, who (the supporters) have already proven they are willing to throw the baby into the fire if they don’t get what they want - and fuck all the seniors, women, gays, trans, any racial minority, and more who have been the targets of Trumpanzee racism, ageism, sexism, and incomeism.
Because in order to win in November we will need Every. Single. Vote. Possible. So we need to somehow convince these people *NOT* to throw the baby into the fire, this time. We need to convince them that the fire is hot and lethal and that babies are cute and innocent.
Guinevere wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:18 pm
I disagree that these people are “the base.” But please, convince me otherwise.
They aren't. (Not yet, anyway, not anymore than all of Trump's 2016 voters were the traditional Republican base). So what? We still need as many of those votes as possible.
Last edited by Econoline on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Econoline
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Econoline »

Crackpot wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:22 pm
The state is far more pragmatic than you think and a hell of a lot more centrist.
I know... (I know a lot of Michiganders, some on both sides of the political spectrum.) ...and that's what I thought in 2016.
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Crackpot
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Crackpot »

People (Especially the Hillary campaign severely underestimated just how disliked She was in the state. Trump didn’t win the state because he was popular he won because she was more unpopular.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Econoline
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Econoline »

Big RR wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:34 pm
While I am not certain, I don't see that reaction yet; but it could well come. It's really going to be a tightrope walk for Biden, but personally I wouldn't blithely dismiss most of the Bernie supporters at this point unelss we really want "four more years". Certainly, let's court the moderate republicans, but let's not ignore the base supporters.
My point wasn't that we should concentrate on the moderate Republicans (neither should we take them for granted, but that's another topic). It was more that we need the Bernie supporters and they might be awfully difficult to get. In support of this, I offer this piece from Medium; if you go there, read some of the supporting comments, too, about how some of them think that Biden would be as bad as or worse than Trump. This is what some of the echo-chambers of the Interwebz look like.
  • 25 Reasons Joe Biden Shouldn’t Be President
    https://medium.com/@matthewjohn_36675/2 ... 36a87feb6d




    ETA: BTW, I left a (quite negative--not obscene or abusive, but pretty sarcastic) comment on Medium after I read that piece yesterday; last night I checked back and not only was my comment gone but I couldn't even see the article: when I clicked on the link in my email notification from Medium, a notice appeared that said that I had been blocked from seeing, reading, commenting on, or following the author in question (one Matthew J. Dolezal). Never did get any sort of notice from Medium, the information only shows up when I try to get to the article. The way I got to it to supply the above link was by googling it and opening the article in an incognito window.
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Darren
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Darren »

Sue U wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 pm
As I have said repeatedly, this election is not about national polls or courting some mythical moderate Republican. This election is strictly about generating Democratic voter turnout in three states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin -- sufficient to overcome the 77,000 votes that won the electoral college for Trump last time. And at even a more basic level, that means getting out the vote in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Flint, Milwaukee and Green Bay. That's what it all comes down to. If moderate Republicans who dislike Trump simply stay home and Democrats can get more voters to the polls in those six cities, Trump will be out. Bernie supporters will be especially critical to Michigan, so they need to be given a reason to vote for Biden.
IIRC winning Pennsylvania won the presidency for Trump. He needed 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Without WI & MI he had 278 electoral votes. WI & MN were the icing on the cake. Trump won PA in Allegheny County which includes Pittsburgh and a host of much smaller cities.

He didn't win Allegheny County. Clinton won. Clinton didn't get as many votes as Obama did previously. Clinton's votes in Allegheny County, Philadelphia and Harrisburg were out matched by the rural vote for Trump.

Biden has the same problem Clinton did. Unless he can get the same turnout as Obama, meaning the Black vote, he can't win. I'm seeing the same dynamic I saw in 2016. That's massive turnout at Trump's rallies and the continued media attacks on Trump.

As the Democrat Party worker told me in 2016, "We gave him a billions dollars of free publicity."

That hasn't stopped.
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Scooter
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Scooter »

Darren wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:16 am
Unless he can get the same turnout as Obama, meaning the Black vote, he can't win.
Thus far he has been getting it, to a degree that would have been unimaginable after the stumbles of the first few primaries/caucuses. Black turnout in particular has exploded over 2016.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

Black turnout in particular has exploded over 2016.
Ditto the suburban white vote...

Seeing the 2020 political "dynamic the same as 2016" is nothing but Trumpist wishful thinking. Democratic primary participation is waaay up over 2016, Biden is winning percentages of working class white voters that Hillary could only have dreamed of and the key demos that turned out to deliver control of the House to the Dems in 2018 are showing up to vote in droves...

The one area of disappointment remains (as usual) the yoots, but they didn't show up to vote in huge numbers for Obama in either of his elections either...they never do...
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Lord Jim
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

massive turnout at Trump's rallies
There is zero connection between getting large attendance at rallies and electoral victory...

Just ask Bernie Sanders...
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Econoline
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Econoline »

Lord Jim wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:18 am
massive turnout at Trump's rallies
There is zero connection between getting large attendance at rallies and electoral victory...

Just ask Bernie Sanders...
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Guinevere
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Guinevere »

The fiction that Trump has legions of black supporters seems to be a favorite. It’s pure delusion.

As for the “mean” media, just watch the daily pandemic briefings. They pretty much speak for themselves.

Finally, how’s your 401K Darren?
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Gob
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Gob »

The world witnessed two Trumps in often jarring conflict last week, sometimes in the same breath.

One was aspiring to be statesmanlike, reassuring an anguished public and mobilizing the awesome power of the American government. The other was more familiar: belligerent, anti-science, racially divisive, airing grievances and resentments and blaming everyone but himself.

Yet from the blur something else was coming into focus. Having procrastinated at the outbreak of the pandemic, this was the week Trump regained his footing and began to thread a narrative aimed at his re-election.

The bid for four more years of power includes muscular language, projecting himself as a wartime leader, a dose of nationalism in stricter border controls and references to the “Chinese virus”, and a blitzkrieg at his old foes in the media.

Although he can no longer hold rambunctious campaign rallies, Trump is instead relishing the medium he knows best by holding televised daily briefings from the White House. Whereas for a while he was forced to play second fiddle to the Democratic presidential primary, now rival Joe Biden is forced to host virtual campaign events – plagued by technical glitches - and Trump is back at the centre of events.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ember-2020
Watched some of Trump's "speech" yesterday. The man is an incapable turd and should be put out of our misery. Seriously I have never heard such twatwaffle in all my born days.
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Darren
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Darren »

Guinevere wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:32 am
The fiction that Trump has legions of black supporters seems to be a favorite. It’s pure delusion.

As for the “mean” media, just watch the daily pandemic briefings. They pretty much speak for themselves.

Finally, how’s your 401K Darren?
I don't believe Trump has legions of Black voters.

One article mentioned unemployment of young Blacks. There was nothing mentioned about education or skills. As an aside It just occurred to me I've never seen Blacks on large construction projects. What does that say about unions? Unions are having trouble getting apprentices.

Back to the legions, that doesn't matter if Black voters demonstrate the same disinterest as 2016 and stay home instead of voting.

"A new survey of registered African American voters found that a significant number are disillusioned with the Democratic Party.

The survey, conducted by the political action committee BlackPAC, found that while black voters are largely supportive of the Democratic Party and align most with its values, more than half feel that the party is not paying close enough attention to the black community. Democrats, they argue, grew too distracted by impeachment to focus on the issues that matter to black voters, putting them out of touch with the key bloc whose support they’ve relied on for decades."

Did you you read that Sharpton was surpised Trump called him about COVID-19? The first case in a federal prison (holding facility) is in NYC.

https://blackpac.com/warning-signs-for-november/
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Lord Jim
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

Democratic turnout surges on Super Tuesday

Democratic voter turnout surged on Super Tuesday, exceeding 2016 levels in at least a dozen states and setting an all-time record in one of them.

In Virginia, the fourth most delegate-rich state to hold a primary Tuesday, more than 1.3 million voters cast ballots — a nearly 70 percent increase over 2016, when about 783,000 voted in the Democratic presidential primary. That surpasses a previous record set in 2008, when just under 1 million voters turned out.

In North Carolina, turnout was up by about 17 percent over 2016 levels. And in Texas, at least 45 percent more voters went to the polls on Tuesday than showed up four years ago, according to an analysis of vote returns.

Turnout also skyrocketed in contests in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and Utah, though those states switched from caucuses to primaries this year, making it difficult to compare Tuesday’s turnout to that of past election years.

The gains are an early sign of enthusiasm among Democratic voters as they look to recapture the White House from President Trump.

The increased voter turnout on Tuesday was driven largely by moderates, who helped deliver several key victories to Biden.

The former vice president’s campaign has rebounded in recent days after he notched a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, a win driven in large part by strong turnout from moderates and black voters, who made up a majority of the state’s Democratic electorate.

n Texas, roughly 43 percent of the electorate on Tuesday self-identified as moderate, according to exit polling. That’s a nearly 10-point increase over 2016, when about 34 percent described themselves as moderate. That trend was also seen across Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and Massachusetts, where Biden scored an unexpected first-place finish.

That surge in moderate turnout likely worked to the detriment of Sanders, who has long argued that high turnout, particularly from young voters, would yield electoral wins for his campaign.

But those young voters did not turn out on Tuesday at the rate that Sanders had hoped. Exit polls show that the Vermont senator won voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by wide margins across the 14 Super Tuesday states. But no state saw an increase in those voters’ share of the electorate.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... er-tuesday

Turnout surge powers Biden in primaries

Voter turnout in the Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi reached its highest levels in more than a decade on Tuesday.

The surge in turnout was largely driven by black voters, moderates and suburbanites, who have come out in force in recent weeks to the benefit of former Vice President Joe Biden.

That trend began in South Carolina late last month and has served to lift Biden’s campaign up from the brink of collapse and deliver him a spate of wins in the primary race.

In Michigan, Democratic turnout shattered records on Tuesday, with nearly 1.6 million voters casting ballots in the primary — a nearly 33 percent increase over 2016 when just shy of 1.2 million votes were recorded.

Biden beat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in Michigan, dealing a crushing blow to his chief progressive rival, who carried the state over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

For Democrats more broadly, the high turnout in Michigan was a promising development at a time when they are looking to recapture parts of the Midwest that they lost to President Trump in 2016.

Lavora Barnes, the chairwoman of the Michigan Democratic Party, labeled the surge in her state as a “turnout explosion” ignited by widespread opposition to Trump.

“From his attacks on health care and access to clean water to his failure to grow manufacturing jobs in our state, Donald Trump has broken promise after promise to Michigan and yesterday, Democratic voters showed they’re ready to hold him accountable for that fact,” Barnes said in a statement.

In Mississippi, turnout swelled by about 19 percent over 2016 levels, according to the most recent vote tallies. In Missouri, the increase in turnout was a more modest 5 percent over where it was four years ago. Biden carried both of those states on Tuesday.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -primaries
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Election 2020

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Darren:
As an aside It just occurred to me I've never seen Blacks on large construction projects.
Oh fer chrissake Darren. I have and so have you if you have ever looked. There a big office building going up (or was - haven't checked in the last week) down the road and there are plenty of black guys working there. Now if you wanted to make the case that blacks are under-representd in union shops and wanted to back that up with data, I might listen and counter with data if there is any. But to make such a blanket statement is just moronic.

There are far too many people these days just making shit up and saying it and unfortunately there are whose who will believe it. "Well he wouldn't be allowed to say it if it wasn't true!" I wonder where they get it from. There are people who believe anything they see on the internet. (It's true. I don't have a reference for that but I saw it in a thread somewhere.)

Of course it's not new. Don't know if it was Mark Twain or Will Rogers who said: "It's not what he doesn't know that bothers me. It's what he does know that just ain't so!"

Darren
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Darren »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:48 pm
Darren:
As an aside It just occurred to me I've never seen Blacks on large construction projects.
Oh fer chrissake Darren. I have and so have you if you have ever looked. There a big office building going up (or was - haven't checked in the last week) down the road and there are plenty of black guys working there. Now if you wanted to make the case that blacks are under-representd in union shops and wanted to back that up with data, I might listen and counter with data if there is any. But to make such a blanket statement is just moronic.

There are far too many people these days just making shit up and saying it and unfortunately there are whose who will believe it. "Well he wouldn't be allowed to say it if it wasn't true!" I wonder where they get it from. There are people who believe anything they see on the internet. (It's true. I don't have a reference for that but I saw it in a thread somewhere.)

Of course it's not new. Don't know if it was Mark Twain or Will Rogers who said: "It's not what he doesn't know that bothers me. It's what he does know that just ain't so!"
Andy, I'm speaking from experience dating back to 1967 which includes projects from a few million dollars to several billion dollars. Projects ranged from highway construction to power plant construction/maintenance and school projects.

The gist which you missed was a possible failure of the education system. Of course it could be prejudice on the part of unions in the East. While Blacks bemoan the high unemployment among the young, I wonder about their education and skill sets.

If they're don't have the prerequisites for a job it doesn't matter how good the economy is. How that affects the Black vote is up to conjecture.

I'll add, in professional settings rather than project related craft work, Blacks were well represented in engineering. Not so much in project management.

FWIW, I'm not blind.
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Burning Petard
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Burning Petard »

Let me look do a short 'future history'. Similar to the experience in China, eventually this pandemic runs it course in the USofA and social distance goes back to normal. People get haircuts and manicures. The grocery stores have chicken and toilet paper without price gauging. School opens as normal at the end of summer.

Then it is the first Tuesday in November. Will most voters demonstrate their short memory and vote based on their financial and emotional base whatever was the last name on the sign they saw as they go in to vote on that particular day?

snailgate

Jarlaxle
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Jarlaxle »

My wife is not happy that I no longer have a large sedan she can use to shuttle people to the polls on 11/2.

She has already reserved a passenger van from Hertz.

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RayThom
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Election 2020

Post by RayThom »

Jarlaxle wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:03 am
My wife is not happy that I no longer have a large sedan she can use to shuttle people to the polls on 11/2. She has already reserved a passenger van from Hertz.
She'll do much better at the polls if she reserves the van for 11/3.
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Jarlaxle
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Jarlaxle »

She starts shuttling before Hertz opens...so she will pick it up the day before.

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RayThom
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Election 2020

Post by RayThom »

Jarlaxle wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:28 am
She starts shuttling before Hertz opens...so she will pick it up the day before.
That will work best, she'll have the van a day before the elections on 11/3.
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