Brexit On The Brink...

[Lord Jim]

We will now launch the most ambitious and radical campaign for real change our country has ever seen.”

Oh yes, Jeremy, that's the ticket; just what the country wants...

Have the Labour party run on that platform; I wouldn't change a word...

[ex-khobar Andy]

I doubt that an election will clear things up, unless the Tories campaign on a single issue - let Boris be Boris - and they win handily. My thought is that that will not happen. My prediction: Conservative 280 seats; Labour 250 seats; Scottish Nationalists 50 seats; LibDems (anti-Brexit) 40 seats; Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) 12 seats; Democratic Unionists (Northern Ireland Protestant/Loyalists) 10 seats; Sinn Fein (NI Catholics/Irish Unionists) 7 seats; Greens 1 seat.

BloJo will, of course claim vindication as leader of the biggest single party. "Not so fast" says Corbyn. The DUP will line up with the Tories and the Welsh Nationalists and Sinn Fein with Labour. The Scots Nats will throw their lot in with the Lib Dems giving the Remainers a pretty chunky 90 seats. Whoever first promises them a redo of the Brexit referendum will get at least their temporary alliance. I don't know who that will be but my guess is that pragmatism will win out over dogmatism and Corbyn will press his buzzer first.

[Lord Jim]

Looks to me like you're basically predicting an electoral disaster for the Tories...

I'm not seeing that in any of the polling...

[Gob]

My prediction: Conservative 280 seats; Labour 250 seats; Scottish Nationalists 50 seats; LibDems (anti-Brexit) 40 seats; Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) 12 seats; Democratic Unionists (Northern Ireland Protestant/Loyalists) 10 seats; Sinn Fein (NI Catholics/Irish Unionists) 7 seats; Greens 1 seat.

Current Parliament consists of;

Conservative Party (298)
Democratic Unionist Party (10)
Labour Party (244)
Scottish National Party (35)
Liberal Democrats (20)
The Independent Group for Change (5)
Plaid Cymru (4)
Green Party (1)
Independent (24)

My prediction for post election;

Conservative Party (350)
Democratic Unionist Party (8)
Labour Party (190)
Scottish National Party (65)
Liberal Democrats (24)
The Independent Group for Change (0)
Plaid Cymru (2)
Green Party (1)
Independent (10)

[RayThom]

Well we're getting the election I have been begging for for ove a year now. At. Fucking. Last!!

Be careful what you wish for.

[Lord Jim]

Is there a more politically tone deaf politician on the planet than Jeremy Corbyn? (At least now that Theresa May has retired...)

Poll after poll after poll has consistently shown that by a wide margin, the British people simply do not consider him to be responsible enough to take seriously as a potential Prime Minister...

He should be promising to run "the most thoughtful and responsible campaign our country has ever seen"; not "the most radical"...

He should be trying remake his image in a way that would make voters think, "Well, okay maybe I could imagine him as a Prime Minister"...

Instead, he's doubling down on reckless bomb thrower...

Corbyn is a perpetual anchor around the neck of Labour electoral prospects; with him leading them into this election, the Labourites are going to be lucky to out-poll the Lib Dems...

I'm beginning to think he may be a Tory mole...

Johnson must be lickin' his chops...

[Econoline]

• Corbyn is a perpetual anchor around the neck of Labour electoral prospects; with him leading them into this election, the Labourites are going to be lucky to out-poll the Lib Dems...
  
  I'm beginning to think he may be a Tory mole...

I hate to say it but I agree with you 100% on this, Jim. My sympathies are with Labour and I'd like to see them return to power — but absolutely *N*O*T* under Jeremy Corbyn, no way, no how.

You know, I actually felt a bit sorry for May, and a little (well, VERY little) grudging respect for Johnson...but Corbyn and those who voted him into his leadership position get (and deserve) nothing but contempt from this lifelong lefty.

[ex-khobar Andy]

I'm not a rabid Corbynista but he was against the Iraq War from the beginning (recall how it was pushed by GW Bush and Blair) and he was for a continued membership in the EJ but with some ideas for changing the nature of the relationship. Since the Brexit referendum he has accepted the result, but it was he who pushed for legislation to to prevent a no-deal Brexit which would be disastrous.

I think he's a good man but has somehow allowed himself to be demonized by the others in Parliament. In roughly the same sense that I didn't want Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, even though I felt that she was well qualified, because she was in my view unelectable, I'm not sure about Corbyn. From pure pragmatism I want someone else to lead the Labour party, but I'm not sure who there really is who could do the job. The Labour Party has always suffered from adventurists who want to be in politics but who know that if they come from a traditional Labour area they'd better be Labour. So they are Labour by ambition rather than conviction. Corbyn is genuine.

[Burning Petard]

All this is very interesting to me, an outsider who has never set foot in the UK or Ireland.

But what about the EU? What is going on there? I thought they had set a firm, never to be extended deadline for the the brave little isle to do its Brexit and really exit. Now they say. 'Well maybe, perhaps, Jan 30,'20?

snailgate

[Big RR]

BP--I read that as cooler heads prevailing to be certain that the ultimate split is as "painless" as possible for the remaining members. Indeed, it appears that the EU is less militant about the Brexit and how to respond to it than many in the US are. of course, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of the way this is handled firsthand, so I'm not all that surprised. Indeed, I'd bet there will be another extension in January.

[Gob]

Is there a more politically tone deaf politician on the planet than Jeremy Corbyn?

Quite simply, no. When the Guardian newspaper, the bastion of the "new left" in the UK press, consistently prints anti-Corbyn rhetoric, you know he's got no chance.

[Lord Jim]

I'd bet there will be another extension in January.

I believe that will really depend on the election results...

If, (as I strongly suspect will be the case based on the polling I've seen) the Tories win an outright majority and are no longer dependent on the Democratic Unionists to form a government, then the odds are excellent that Johnson's Brexit deal with the EU will be approved, (he only came up nine votes short on the last vote) and there will be no need for an extension...

If, however, Johnson should prove to be as inept a campaigner as May (highly unlikely, based on his track record) and he manages to blow the substantial lead the Conservative party enjoys over the course of the campaign (a lead which is actually even bigger than most polls suggest since it's likely that a large portion of the roughly 10% going to The Brexit Party in the polls will ultimately wind up back in the Conservative column on election day; just as happened in Cameron's last general election with the UKIP vote) and the results create a parliament that is still locked in stalemate, then yes I'm sure the EU would be happy to grant another extension...

"De Facto Remain" brought about by the inability of the British parliament to ever muster a majority for a Brexit Plan works just fine from their perspective...They'll grant extensions in perpetuity...

[Big RR]

You may well be right Jim, although if Boris wins big, he may decide to push for a better deal.

[RayThom]

The operative word: "IF."

[Lord Jim]

UK election polls: Boris Johnson soars into 17-point opinion poll lead ahead of Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson and the Conservatives have surged to a huge 17-point lead at the start of the general election campaign, a major poll revealed today.

The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Tories up eight points since September to 41 per cent, while Labour is marooned on 24.

At the same time, the Prime Minister’s personal scores have leaped, including for his handling of Brexit, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have stayed at rock bottom.

The findings are excruciating for the Labour leader, suggesting that his fence-sitting on Brexit has turned into a disaster.

Eight in 10 people think he has done “a bad job” at handling Brexit, indicating that neither Leave nor Remain supporters admire his performance.

And just over half of Labour supporters think Mr Corbyn has handled Brexit badly.

Meanwhile more than eight in 10 Tory backers are pleased with the way Mr Johnson has handled Britain’s departure from the European Union.

Mr Corbyn kicked off Labour’s campaign with a rally in Battersea this morning where he vowed to “get Brexit sorted within six months” and hit out at “tax dodgers, dodgy landlords, bad bosses and big polluters”.

The Prime Minister embarked on a one-day dash taking in a school, a hospital and a police unit, promising to “get Brexit done and deliver on the people’s priorities, including the NHS, education and crime.”

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson launched her party’s slogan — Stop Brexit. Build a brighter future — and dispatched an ad-van to tour it around her rivals’ constituencies of Uxbridge and Islington.

Key findings revealed exclusively in today’s Evening Standard include:

Voters would divide as follows in an election today: Conservative, 41 per cent; Labour, 24 per cent; Liberal Democrats, 20 per cent;[ this is just one of many recent polls that show Labour much closer in support to the Lib Dems than to the Tories] Brexit Party, seven per cent; Greens, three per cent. It is the highest Conservative share since June 2018 and the 17-point Tory lead is the biggest since April 2017.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 75276.html

[ex-khobar Andy]

BP--I read that as cooler heads prevailing to be certain that the ultimate split is as "painless" as possible for the remaining members. Indeed, it appears that the EU is less militant about the Brexit and how to respond to it than many in the US are. of course, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of the way this is handled firsthand, so I'm not all that surprised. Indeed, I'd bet there will be another extension in January.

I think opinions within the EU have changed. When the referendum was recent the attitude was like a parent with a kid who foolishly wants to leave home maybe a little earlier than planned. The parent hopes for the best and tries to dissuade the kid and does everything possible to help the kid so that if they do leave, the separation would be as painless as possible for all concerned. "We're here for you." "We won't rent out your room." "Let us know if you need any cash."

But after months and years of rhetoric about the dastardly EU and the psychopaths in Brussels, the mood changed. "When is that little fucker going to leave? I want his room to display my beermat collection."

[ex-khobar Andy]

Per LJ's quote:

Voters would divide as follows in an election today: Conservative, 41 per cent; Labour, 24 per cent; Liberal Democrats, 20 per cent;[ this is just one of many recent polls that show Labour much closer in support to the Lib Dems than to the Tories] Brexit Party, seven per cent; Greens, three per cent. It is the highest Conservative share since June 2018 and the 17-point Tory lead is the biggest since April 2017.

Of course it's early days. But it's worth pointing out that if that picture holds, BloJo will be re-elected with a massive parliamentary majority. In 1945 Attlee had a 11% margin in the popular vote over Churchill's Conservatives but a 393 to 197 margin in seats - almost exactly double. The prior election (1935; WW2 intervened) Attlee and Chamberlain were only 10 points ahead in the popular vote but Chamberlain's parliamentary majority was 386 to 154. In both cases third (and fourth and fifth and sixth) parties were not a factor and that's not the case nowadays - so we'll see.

[Big RR]

BP--I read that as cooler heads prevailing to be certain that the ultimate split is as "painless" as possible for the remaining members. Indeed, it appears that the EU is less militant about the Brexit and how to respond to it than many in the US are. of course, they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of the way this is handled firsthand, so I'm not all that surprised. Indeed, I'd bet there will be another extension in January.

I think opinions within the EU have changed. When the referendum was recent the attitude was like a parent with a kid who foolishly wants to leave home maybe a little earlier than planned. The parent hopes for the best and tries to dissuade the kid and does everything possible to help the kid so that if they do leave, the separation would be as painless as possible for all concerned. "We're here for you." "We won't rent out your room." "Let us know if you need any cash."

But after months and years of rhetoric about the dastardly EU and the psychopaths in Brussels, the mood changed. "When is that little fucker going to leave? I want his room to display my beermat collection."

I see it a bit differently; initially, I think Brussells had the attitude of "if you want out, go; this is the best you're going to get from us> And don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out." More recently, it appears that they now see Brexit and inevitable, and want to minimize its economic impact on the EU, as Great Britain is a major trading partner that they will be better keeping significant ties with rather than cutting them loose and hurting themselves to make a point. It appears to me that they have been bargaining in good faith and wnat to make the break as painless as possible (of course, this could be wishful thinking).

That being said, my view is colored by the viewpoint that Brexit (however stupid I may think it is) should not be seen as an affront to the EU; of course, I would have let the southern states secede in 1861 as well (but that's a different thread).

[MajGenl.Meade]

Corbyn and Brexit explained:

Bad, bad, bad, bad, tremendous, great

Mr Trump, appearing on the LBC radio show presented by his old friend Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, said: “I have great relationships with many of the leaders, including Boris who’s a fantastic man — I think he’s the exact right guy for the times.”

Turning to Mr Corbyn, he said: “Corbyn would be so bad for your country, he’d be so bad. He’d take you in such a bad way. He’d take you to such bad places. But your country has tremendous potential; it’s a great country.”

Do trade, trade, deal, deal, can't, can't, can't, trade, can't, I think ,can, many times, numbers, doing, bigger, numbers, doing

"We want to do trade with UK and they want to do trade with us. To be honest with you... this deal... under certain aspects of the (Brexit) deal... you can't do it, you can't do it, you can't trade. We can't make a trade deal with the UK because I think we can do many times the numbers that we're doing right now and certainly much bigger numbers than you are doing under the European Union."

[Lord Jim]

Labour’s almighty collapse: Poll horror for Corbyn as support crumbles across the UK

SUPPORT for Jeremy Corbyn is imploding across the country, a poll revealed last night. Labour voters are abandoning the Left-wing leader in droves – even in the party’s heartlands. The Tories are now ahead in almost every English region.

By Martyn Brown, Daily Express Political Correspondent
PUBLISHED: 00:01, Sat, Nov 9, 2019 | UPDATED: 00:15, Sat, Nov 9, 2019

The latest YouGov survey of 11,590 adults across the UK is a massive tonic for Boris Johnson, whose party now leads in former Labour strongholds, including the North-west, Yorkshire and the Humber. The Tory gains are being driven by plummeting support for Mr Corbyn’s party, which has dropped 25 points in the North-west to 30 per cent, leaving the Conservatives with a narrow three-point lead. In Yorkshire the same pattern has put the Tories five points ahead, a reversal of Labour’s eight-point lead in 2017.

The independent poll was not commissioned by any third party and is the first of its kind comparing support now with the 2017 election.

It came as Labour’s shambolic start to the election campaign worsened last night amid more damaging controversies surrounding 12 of its election hopefuls.

And Mr Corbyn was facing further pressure over anti-semitism within Labour after one of the party’s most prominent Jewish figures declined to endorse him as Prime Minister.

Dame Margaret Hodge – an MP for 25 years – refused to be drawn on whether she would prefer to see the Labour leader or Boris Johnson in No 10, saying a government is “more than any individual”.

It appears Mr Corbyn’s unpopularity, his dithering over Brexit and the anti-semitism scandal is cutting through to voters.

Since the 2017 election, Labour’s support in their North-east stronghold has dwindled from 55 per cent to 32 per cent, said YouGov.

Meanwhile, the Tories have dropped eight points since the last election to 26 per cent. The region also has the highest support for the Brexit Party across the country, with 19 per cent.

In London, which voted heavily to remain, the party has secured a ten-point boost to 19 per cent, while Labour remain the largest on 39 per cent despite a 16-point slump since 2017.

In Wales, support for Mr Corbyn has plummeted from 49 per cent to 29 per cent, leaving his party just one point ahead of the Tories, while the Brexit Party sit on 15 per cent.

But everywhere else in the country the Conservatives hold a commanding lead.

In the North West the Tories are on 33 per cent to Labour’s 30 per cent following a 25 per cent collapse for Mr Corbyn’s party.

In Yorkshire and Humberside the Tories are on 34 per cent and Labour are on 29 per cent.

In the East Midlands with the Tories are surging on 45 per cent, 23 points clear of Labour.

In the West Midlands Mr Johnson’s party are at 43 per cent with Labour only on 23 per cent.

The Conservatives are riding high in East Anglia, the South East and South West.

A senior Tory source said last night: “It’s no surprise to see public opinion moving away from Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. No one in Britain wants a hardline socialist anywhere near No 10.”

Chris Curtis, of YouGov, said: “The data shows voters have moved away from both major parties across the country. The picture is much worse for Labour.”

Further pressure was mounting on Mr Corbyn last night as it emerged that 12 of his election candidates have previously been forced to apologise for a string of racist or foul-mouthed comments. [Wait a minute..wasn't it Boris Johnson and his supporters who were supposed to be the most like Trump?]

There were calls last night for the so-called “dirty dozen” to be barred from standing in next month’s General Election. [If Corbyn gave a flying fuck about the fortunes of the Labour Party, he himself would be stepping down...]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12021 ... oll-yougov