Brexit On The Brink...

[Lord Jim]

If these numbers hold up, for a normal party leader who had suffered the kind of defeat Labour is looking at, it would be a foregone conclusion that they would be announcing their resignation first thing tomorrow morning...

But Corbyn of course is not a a normal party leader. It will probably take The Jaws Of Life to pry him out of the leadership....

[wesw]

it is nice t0 agree with y0u again , jim.

[Lord Jim]

I saw Corbyn a little while ago speaking after he won re-election in his constituency (well, you can't have everything...)

It struck me that there was something oddly appropriate about the candidate for the Monster Raving Loony Party standing behind him just over his shoulder...

Corbyn said he would not lead the Labour Party in any future national election, but that he would continue to lead the party during something that he described as a "process of reflection"...(whatever the hell that means)

He did not put any time limit on this "process of reflection", but I suspect that he will in short order be hearing from other senior Labour figures that the middle of next week would be a good time limit...

At the outside...

[Econoline]

"process of reflection"...(whatever the hell that means)

I think it means "process of getting canned by the party".

[Lord Jim]

In his remarks, Corbyn blamed the party's defeat mostly on Brexit, but he had not one word to say about how his personal massive unpopularity just might have contributed to the dimensions of his party's defeat...

I suspect he's going to be hearing that he should go off and engage in his "process of reflection" on his own...

[RayThom]

"Process of reflection:" That's the biological phenomenon that's responsible for momentary distractions when confronted by shiny objects.

I think the medical term is "odocoileus luminosus."

[MajGenl.Meade]

My hometown! (Sigh)

Con hold Rayleigh & Wickford
Party.............Candidate........Votes..........%
Con..............Mark Francois 39,864.......72.6
Lab..............David Flack.........8,864.......16.2
Lib Dem........Ron Tindall..........4,171........7.6
Green...........Paul Thorogood....2,002........3.7
Majority 56.5%
Turnout 69.5%

Well, that's done - now onward to destroy the NHS, widows and orphings!

[MajGenl.Meade]

I see someone photoshopped Trump into the picture:

[Lord Jim]

With just one seat left to be decided:

2019 UK general election results
Live

Updated at 2:06 AM PST

Official · 649/650 seats
326 needed for majority

Party and leader
Seats Percent Count
Conservative Party
Boris Johnson
364 43.6% 13,941,200
Labour Party
Jeremy Corbyn
203 32.2% 10,292,054
Scottish National Party
Nicola Sturgeon
48 3.9% 1,242,372
Liberal Democrats
Jo Swinson
11 11.5% 3,675,342
Democratic Unionist Party
Arlene Foster
8 0.8% 244,128
Sinn Féin
Mary Lou McDonald
7 0.6% 181,853
Plaid Cymru
Adam Price
4 0.5% 153,265
Green Party
Jonathan Bartley & Siân Berry Am
1 2.7% 864,743
Brexit Party
Nigel Farage
0 2% 642,303
UK Independence Party
Patricia Mountain
0 0.1% 22,817
Other parties
3 2.1% 700,440

Largest Tory majority since 1987...

An even worse result for Labour than they suffered in 1983 with Michael Foote as leader...

In much of the country, the Labour Party's support among people who actually labor for a living basically collapsed...

[Gob]

Incredible result.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Labour has some serious head scratching to do; and I think that there are some further lessons to be learned here in the US.

Corbyn allowed himself to be painted as a far left terrorist sympathizer and anti-Semite. Of course that's ridiculous and anyone knows that in Britain, if it's anti-Semitism you want, the most fertile fields are over there on the right. Pretty much the same place you will find them in the US. As for being a terrorist sympathizer: well, terrorism is to some extent in the eye of the beholder. The Founding Fathers were terrorists in some eyes. A cousin of mine got me going on Facebook by calling Corbyn that. I pointed out that the incident in question, loudly and frequently cited by his critics on the right, was to honour the victims of an illegal Israeli raid on Tunis. Don't take my word for it: the UN Security Council said it was illegal 14 -1 with one of the 14 being the UK vote when that well-known commie Margaret Thatcher was calling the shots. So he went to a cemetery in which a couple of known terrorists (associated with Munich,1972) were also buried. By that standard, if one goes to George Elliot's grave to honour her with a rose on her birthday, you are clearly a Marxist. (Highgate Cemetery in London is a great walk. Sadly, I think they make you buy tickets now.)

But Alistair Campbell - Blair's henchman - made a point during the results broadcast on the Beeb. By the time this Parliament is over and we have another general election in 2024, there will be no Labour politician not named Blair to win a general election in 50 years. Harold Wilson in 1974 was the last, and he was very much a man from the time when the world was black and white.

It pains me to say it, but much as I don't think that Clinton and Blair were men of the left, they might be the closest we will see in our lifetimes.

[Lord Jim]

and anyone knows that in Britain, if it's anti-Semitism you want, the most fertile fields are over there on the right.

Then why did the polls indicate that 93% of British Jews would not vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn?

[ex-khobar Andy]

and anyone knows that in Britain, if it's anti-Semitism you want, the most fertile fields are over there on the right.

Then why did the polls indicate that 93% of British Jews would not vote for a Labour Party led by Corbyn?

Because they bought the Tory line. Those who know him said absolutely otherwise. Not unlike how Trump would have us believe that everyone else is an antiSemite when the evidence, for those who bother to read it, is the exact opposite.

I remember during the seventies how the South African government would paint those who marched against apartheid as favoring terrorists. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

[liberty]

So, what does this vote mean; does it mean the Brits are racist as some on the left were saying about Brexit? Or does it mean the Brits want to rule their own country, have their own culture and control immigration. I say that most Brits don’t want open borders. Is that racist?

[Scooter]

Pound hits seven-month high amid Tory win expectations

The pound has hit its highest level in seven months, as City traders show increased confidence that Boris Johnson will win next week’s general election.

Sterling has jumped to $1.3039, up nearly half a cent, to levels not seen since May 2019.

Traders appear to be reacting to the latest Sky News/YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a nine-point lead ahead of Thursday’s general election.

The poll puts the Tories on 42%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats are on 12%, and Brexit Party is on 4%, up two points.

The City fears another hung parliament, which could mean more deadlock and possible a disorderly Brexit. So this polling is pushing the pound up

It seems the financial markets are betting on Boris to win.

And just as quickly:

Pound Traders Give Thumbs Down to Johnson’s New Brexit Strategy

The mandate for Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy came from the ballot box. It is not winning a vote of approval in the global currencies market.

The pound slumped by the most since January after the prime minister announced plans to set a Brexit deadline of December 2020 with or without a trade deal between the U.K and the European Union. The renewed prospect of a disorderly withdrawal from the bloc erased all of sterling’s gains since an exit poll predicted a clear majority for the Conservatives in last week’s vote.

The pressure on sterling deepened as the day wore on, providing a stark illustration of how investors perceive Johnson’s tough stance, compared with earlier hopes for reduced uncertainty over getting a Brexit bill through Parliament. Money markets also reversed course, with the probability of a Bank of England rate cut by next May back at 50%, or the same probability as before the election.

“Those who thought that a big majority would free the prime minister to take a patient approach to negotiate the best possible deal have been caught by surprise,” said Kit Juckes, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale SA. “And that’s most U.K. economists and strategists.”

For JPMorgan Chase & Co, the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains at an “uncomfortably high” 25% following the election win. One-year implied volatility on the pound-dollar pair was headed for the biggest jump since March.

The bank’s economist Allan Monks wrote in a research note dated Dec. 13 that while Johnson’s sturdy majority means “the indecision and domestic delays” of the past two years should be over, it also means the government is likely to take a forceful approach in the upcoming negotiations.

The pound hit a new day-low in afternoon London trade, down 1.5% at $1.3132. It weakened by 1.4% against the euro. The FTSE 250, the U.K.’s domestically-skewed stock index, fell by as much as 1.7% with declines for banks and retailers. The FTSE 100, home to a range of multinationals that benefit from a weaker pound, slipped by a more modest 0.2%.

U.K. government debt rallied, outperforming its European peers, with the yield on 10-year gilts down five basis points to 0.77%
Sterling advanced to as high as $1.3514 on Friday, reached as an exit poll predicted the Conservative Party’s sweeping victory in the general election
EU leaders have warned it’s highly unlikely that negotiators will be able to complete the kind of deal Johnson wants -- which he’s modeled on Canada’s agreement with the EU -- in the 11 months between Brexit day Jan. 31 and the December deadline. This sets up a fresh cliff-edge for a no-deal split with the EU at the end of 2020.

“It is fitting that the main culprit for the reversal is PM Johnson himself with his potentially ill-advised decision to block any chance of extending the transition period beyond December 2020,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA.

The pound has been the main vehicle for investors to express their view on Brexit negotiations throughout the process. In October 2016, the pound declined almost 6% as investors expressed dismay at suggestions the government was headed for a so-called hard Brexit and the same dynamic played out this year as the market reacted to the prospect of a snap election and a looming October Brexit deadline.

There’s a long history of speculators forcing governments to change tack, from the famed bond vigilantes to the move by speculators including George Soros in a previous battle over Britain’s relationship with Europe.

The U.K. election campaign saw a dramatic shift in sentiment toward the U.K. currency, which may be tested by the new government’s Brexit strategy. A Citigroup Inc. index indicates that currency funds have almost completely unwound their bearish bets on sterling. Asset managers have also switched to a net long position position in the pound from a net short before the vote, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

For Credit Agricole’s Marinov, it would take a bigger move to impact on the political process. “I was a bit surprised to be honest by the aggressiveness of the drop in the pound given that a lot of what has happened is posturing before the start of the trade negotiations,” he said. “The moves in FX as well as other markets have to turn even uglier to have a more meaningful impact on the decision making process in Westminster.”

It seems the financial markets are betting on Boris to fuck it up royally.

[ex-khobar Andy]

Just before the Brexit vote, the £ was around $1.50. Now it's down around $1.30.

Tories all the way. Yes there was a little bit of a Boris bounce after the election but (as LJ's post pointed out) even that's gone now.

To me it's very odd that after the disastrous 9 1/2 years of Tory government - Cameron then May, now BoJo - somehow the Tories have managed to position themselves as the party who will save UK from all this.

It just shows me that the US does not have the lock on dumb voters reasonably intelligent people who have allowed themselves to be conned by a plausible outwardly amiable self-interested turd.

[Burning Petard]

Perhaps 'basket of deplorables' is the general human condition. Certainly H L Menken believed this was the goal of democracy based on universal suffrage.

snailgate.

[rubato]

So, what does this vote mean; does it mean the Brits are racist as some on the left were saying about Brexit? Or does it mean the Brits want to rule their own country, have their own culture and control immigration. I say that most Brits don’t want open borders. Is that racist?

It means that pretending they are independent is more important than actually having a say in the EU commercial and trading rules; which they will still have to obey.

Like Los Angelenos they have discovered that it is more important to seem, than to be.

yrs,
rubato

[Darren]

In his remarks, Corbyn blamed the party's defeat mostly on Brexit, but he had not one word to say about how his personal massive unpopularity just might have contributed to the dimensions of his party's defeat...

I suspect he's going to be hearing that he should go off and engage in his "process of reflection" on his own...

The anti-Semetic dust up didn't help.

[wesw]

that and the fact that he is a p0inty-bearded c0mmunist