Brexit On The Brink...

[Long Run]

It was always curious that such a fundamental vote could be a one day, snapshot, how are the voters feeling today. Especially where reversing course (after Brexit anyways) would be extremely difficult and rely on the EU to bring back a wayward child. Probably would have been better to have a process that included a series of votes over at least a couple of years in order to effectuate the change.

[rubato]

There is a consensus among liberals and economists that Brexit is bad for the UK and Krugman agrees with that. Few liberals have expressed an opinion about whether it would be bad for the EU let alone whether it would be relatively worse for one or the other. And how emotionally vacuous would one have to be to do something that hurts them as long as it hurts someone else more?

No one voting for Brexit can have known what the phrase "global supply chain" refers to.

yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

No responses to my question, so I’ll pose it again.

Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, and both are talking of independence from the UK upon Brexit. Wales votes to leave, but sentiment is high for independence from the UK.

Is the end of the United Kingdom within sight?

Depends by what you mean by "end". Both Scotland and N. Ireland are heavily dependent financially on the UK. If a split were to occur, they would be in all sorts of trouble.

Scotland has 8.2% of the UK's population but absorbed 9.3% of the UK's total state spending while its share of tax raised across the UK stood at 7.8%. The UK government said this meant the Scottish deficit was equivalent to nearly £1,900 per head more than the UK's deficit.22 Aug 2018

In total in 2006, the British government subvention totalled £5,000m, or 20% of Northern Ireland's economic output. This had risen to £11,547m in 2009-10 during the "Great Recession", and then fell back to £9,160m in 2013-14. A 2017 article by a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute quantified the transfers at 10.8 billion Euro annually. In late 2018 the Irish Times estimated that the subvention had risen to £10.8 billion, about a quarter of Northern Ireland's GDP

The nationalist sentiment on Scotland is not as profound as it may seem, and N Ireland lives in fear of being absorbed into Eire, with all the sectarian strife that would cause.

[Lord Jim]

Thanks for showing me how The Hack Krugman wasn't really deviating from liberal orthodoxy rube...

I was concerned for a moment that he might actually have exhibited an independent thought, but after reading your post I have been reassured that his record for hewing unquestioningly to liberal talking points remains unblemished...

[rubato]

He disagrees with a lot of liberals about rent control. Someone more interested in ideas than spewing moronic partisan slogans would know that.


https://www.nytimes.com/2000/06/07/opin ... ffair.html

Krugman is a real intellectual. You will never be.


yrs,
rubato

[Gob]

Someone more interested in ideas than spewing moronic partisan slogans would know that.

Oh the fucking IRONY!!!!!!

[Lord Jim]

Someone more interested in ideas than spewing moronic partisan slogans

LMAO

Yessir rube, if there's one thing that really defines me it's my mindless, knee-jerk partisanship...

Like voting for Hillary Clinton, and supporting a Democratic takeover of the House, and all the scorn and condemnation I have heaped on numerous Congressional Republicans and right-wing pundits...

That charge is every bit as idiotic as any of the nonsensical accusations wes has hurled at me...

You two should go out bar hopping; you really have a lot in common...

[Gob]

Could be twins...

[BoSoxGal]

Reportedly up to 1 million people marching today in the UK against Brexit and demanding a second referendum now that the electorate has been educated on the complexities of leaving the EU and the lies that were told to sell it in the first place.

In the meantime,

London (CNN Business) Brexit has been delayed, and may eventually be called off. But it's already done major damage to the UK economy.

The vote to leave the European Union in June 2016 caused the pound to weaken dramatically and ushered in years of uncertainty that has reduced economic activity and triggered a slump in investment.
The economy is now 2% smaller than it would have been if the United Kingdom had chosen to remain in the bloc, according to the Bank of England. The economic output lost since the referendum is worth about £800 million ($1 billion) per week, or £4.7 million ($6 million) per hour.
The economic consequences have piled up despite there having been no structural changes yet to Britain's trading relationship with EU nations or the rest of the world.

$1.3 trillion and 7,000 finance jobs are leaving Britain because of Brexit
Britain has continued to sell goods and services into the European Union, its biggest trading partner, while politicians worked to negotiate the divorce. It has been easy for UK companies to hire EU workers, and to maintain supply chains that crisscross national borders.

Yet there has been no clarity over the terms of future UK trade for nearly three years, making it difficult for companies to plan for the future. Investments have been delayed or canceled and many businesses have instead poured millions into planning for the worst case scenario: a disorderly Brexit.

With UK politics in disarray, there's still a risk the country will leave the European Union without a transitional deal to protect trade. The Bank of England has said the fallout from that scenario would be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

The big Brexit slowdown
The United Kingdom was the fastest growing G7 economy when voters went to the polls in 2016. Emergency action by the Bank of England helped the UK economy avoid the recession that some had predicted would follow a vote in favor of Brexit, and unemployment remains very low.
But the country still fell toward the bottom of the G7 ranking. Economic growth has slumped from an annual pace of around 2% to less than 1% now.

Investment by UK companies stalled after the referendum and then plunged 3.7% in 2018. Meanwhile, the rest of the G7 has seen business investment grow around 6% a year since the vote.
And business confidence in Britain has slumped to the lowest level in almost a decade.
"The reason for this underperformance relative to the rest of the world is, I believe, the uncertainty surrounding the prospect of Brexit," Gertjan Vlieghe, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, said in a speech last month.

The pain has also been felt by households. The pound plunged 15% against the dollar after the 2016 vote, pushing the price of imported goods higher. That spurred inflation and contributed to a decline in the value of people's paychecks.

Company trauma
Executives have reacted to the uncertainty by attempting to Brexit-proof their businesses.
"It is clear that political inaction has already had economic consequences, with many firms hitting the brakes on investment and recruitment decisions as a result of ongoing uncertainty," said Adam Marshall, director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, a business lobby.

Brexit chaos means business is 'staring down the precipice'
Many banks have set up new offices in Germany, France, Ireland and other EU countries to safeguard their regional business after Brexit. Financial services companies also have to move substantial assets there to satisfy EU regulators. Assets worth at least £1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) are leaving the country, according to consultancy EY.
Sony (SNE) and Panasonic (PCRFF) are both moving their European headquarters to the Netherlands.
Manufacturing companies, which need their supply chains to function seamlessly, have also made changes. Nissan (NSANF) has scrapped plans to build a new model in the United Kingdom, citing uncertainty over Brexit. German engineering group Schaeffler (SCFLF) is shutting two of its three factories in Britain for the same reason.

The biggest risk
The most dangerous scenario — a disorderly Brexit — could still come to pass.
EU leaders on Thursday granted the United Kingdom a short delay to Brexit, but the country could still crash out of the bloc unless UK lawmakers agree a path forward.
Top officials at the Confederation of British Industry and the Trades Union Congress said Thursday that Britain faces a "national emergency" if politicians allow that to happen.

"Firms and communities across the United Kingdom are not ready for this outcome. The shock to our economy would be felt by generations to come," they wrote in a letter to May.
McDonald's (MCD) and KFC (YUM) joined with UK supermarkets to warn that crashing out of the European Union would disrupt supplies. Airbus has said that it would be forced to redirect future investment away from the United Kingdom.

[Gob]

From YouGov polling data last week....

[Scooter]

So clearly a public that does not know its own mind.

[BoSoxGal]

4 million and counting have signed onto a petition for a new referendum . . .

More than 4.18 million people have signed an online petition urging the U.K. government to cancel Brexit, the most names collected in a public campaign.

The record was reached just before midday Saturday, days after Parliament’s petitions website repeatedly crashed as the signatures piled up -- fueled by endorsements from singer Annie Lennox, actor Hugh Grant, science broadcaster Brian Cox and comedian David Mitchell.


“The rate of signing is the highest the site has ever had to deal with,” the House of Commons petitions committee said on Twitter as the petition went online. “Between 80,000 and 100,000 people have been simultaneously viewing the petition,” it said, “nearly 2,000 signatures are being completed every minute.”


The previous record for an online petition was 4.15 million names in 2016 on a proposal to hold a second Brexit referendum, according to the Parliament website.

The current petition drive passed 1 million shortly before 3 p.m. London time Thursday after the link to the petition went viral on social media platforms including Facebook and Twitter. It passed 2 million less than eight hours later.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... u-k-record

[rubato]

Someone who spews idiocy like Krugman is a knee-jerk liberal does not have opinions of value.

Someone who still thinks Brexit is a good idea for Britain is ignorant of most of how the modern world works and has not paid attention to any of the reporting by the economic press in 3 years.

No wonder all either of you can do is vomit up insults when you've been whupped by the facts.


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

Someone who spews idiocy like Krugman is a knee-jerk liberal does not have opinions of value.

I couldn't agree more rube, well said...

That's exactly why I have never considered Krugman's opinions to have any value...

I'd say the same of anyone who spews idiocy like Krugman...

[rubato]

alcoholism destroyed your memory? You just cited him as a authority. Look up.


yrs,
rubato

[Lord Jim]

alcoholism destroyed your memory?

Hey, I'm not the one who said, "Someone who spews idiocy like Krugman is a knee-jerk liberal " you are...

I'm just agreeing with you...

[Lord Jim]

From YouGov polling data last week....

With those kinds of divisions in the general population, it's small wonder that the political class can't find the will to forge a majority for any course of action...

The paralysis in Parliament is a reflection of the unhappiness in the electorate with all available options...

[Gob]

So clearly a public that does not know its own mind.

It's a public which has a very varied view.

[Gob]

The paralysis in Parliament is a reflection of the unhappiness in the electorate with all available options...

Nailed it again Jim.

[Scooter]

So clearly a public that does not know its own mind.

It's a public which has a very varied view.

For every option that could be on the table, those who believe it will bring a bad outcome outnumber those who believe it will bring a good outcome. How is any government supposed to bring about a resolution in those circumstances?