Brexit On The Brink...

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

MajGenl.Meade wrote:Beyond time to turn over the northern enclave to the noisy neighbours to the south. One Ireland - problem solved.
I've been saying that for years...

Let them and their mixed up gods sort it out.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Crackpot
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Crackpot »

Sounds a lot likes libertys ideas abou Puerto Rico
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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MajGenl.Meade
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

Except that the majority of Puerto Ricans vote to stay with the USA. A similar free vote across all-Ireland (which the British invaded long ago) would likely show a desire to have one united Ireland. The Home Rule errors (read, greedy git compromises) of the past should be corrected.
For Christianity, by identifying truth with faith, must teach-and, properly understood, does teach-that any interference with the truth is immoral. A Christian with faith has nothing to fear from the facts

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Crackpot
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Crackpot »

It would have to be a vote of Northern Ireland only they are the ones that are changing citizenship.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

Big RR
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Big RR »

I would think the souther n part would also have to vote to see if they wanted them back.

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Crackpot
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Crackpot »

True but as long as they are separate entities they should be treated as such and not be subject to the combined will as a whole. (The tyranny of the majority)
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Scooter
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Scooter »

The Irish Constitution says that a united Ireland shall only be achieved through the consent of the majority of each jurisdiction.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

That makes sense...

It would take two separate votes, one for the North and and one for the Irish Republic...

That seems right to me...
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Big RR
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Big RR »

I agree.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

I've got the British Parliament Brexit debate on BBC America...(It's the first Saturday session they've had since The Falklands War)

Apparently it's a very near thing...

It started at 9:30 AM UK time and could go into the evening hours...

Or it could end fairly soon; the first vote will come on yet another weasel amendment that would force Johnson to seek yet another 3 month extension from the EU...

Before the debate began the commentators were talking like the passage of this amendment was likely, but apparently there have been some unexpected folks coming out against it so now they're saying it's up in the air...

Maybe, just maybe they'll finally do their jobs...
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

. . . weasel amendment that would force Johnson to seek yet another 3 month extension from the EU...
And that 'weasel amendment' passed by a small majority (322 to 306) so it's now the substantive motion. It means that the final Brexit vote can only be taken once all the legislation is in place. It's possible this can all be done by 31 October; more likely it won't so BloJo would be forced to seek an extension.

I can't help thinking that at least some of those who voted for the amendment did so out of a sense of reprimanding Johnson. He has made so much of the "We will be out by 31 October" promise (not unlike Trump's Mexican-financed wall) that anything which scuppers that is a victory for those (and there are many including within the parliamentary Tory Party) who oppose him. It's a reminder that Parliament as a whole is in charge not an individual.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

Yeah, they pussied-out again... :roll:

But I have to give Boris some credit; he came a lot closer than May ever did...

Unfortunately they're not playing horse shoes or hand grenades, so "close" don't cut it...

Basically he needs to flip nine votes, and it looks like he may get another shot to do that:
The PM must now ask the EU for an extension to that deadline after MPs backed an amendment aimed at ruling out a no-deal Brexit, by 322 votes to 306.

Mr Johnson has told EU Council President Donald Tusk that he will now send a letter seeking the delay.

Under the terms of the so-called Benn Act, passed last month by MPs, he has until 2300 BST on Saturday to send it.

Having spoken to Mr Johnson at 1915 BST, EU Council President Donald Tusk tweeted that he was "waiting for the letter".

An EU source said that once Mr Tusk received the letter, he would start consulting EU leaders on how to react - which may take a few days, BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming reported.

Mr Johnson has vowed to bring in legislation on Monday to implement the deal he struck with Brussels this week.

MPs could also be given another vote on the deal then
, if Commons Speaker John Bercow allows it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50110601

My understanding is that the law requires Johnson to send the letter requesting an extension, (which apparently he's going to do) but it doesn't require him to lift a finger to try and negotiate anything further...

With a government sending a letter seeking an extension simply because it is compelled to, when in fact that government actually opposes an extension, it's an open question as to whether or not the EU will grant the extension request...

If it doesn't, then it will truly become a choice between the deal Boris has struck and a hard Brexit...
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Econoline
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Econoline »

:loon I just don't get it. Could anyone please explain to me just what makes the agreement negotiated by Johnson significantly different from—and better than—the agreement negotiated by May??? And so much different/better that the first one should be rejected and the new one approved???? :shrug
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

The consensus seems to be that Johnson's deal is worse then May's. This is supposedly a non-partisan research group based at King's College London. You can maybe take that with a pinch of salt because university academics seems to be more pro-EU than most of their brethren.

A quote from the summary:
Theresa May aimed to achieve as frictionless trade as possible with the EU, despite leaving the EU customs
union and the single market. She agreed to have new customs arrangements with the EU, but also to stay
closely aligned with EU goods regulations to avoid the need for border checks—and for the UK to potentially
stay inside some of the EU’s agencies in heavily regulated sectors.
Mr Johnson has abandoned that aspiration. Instead, he will seek to negotiate tariff- and quota-free trade with
the EU. Even with such a free trade agreement in place, if the UK is not in the EU’s customs union, there will be
customs checks at the border, goods will have to satisfy rules of origin requirements to qualify for tariff-free
entry, and trade will be subject to the threat of anti-dumping duties and countervailing measures.
Under Mr Johnson’s proposals, Great Britain will be outside the single market and will have the opportunity
to diverge from EU regulations, while Northern Ireland will remain bound by a greater number of EU rules.
However, there will be new checks to ensure goods comply with the EU’s standards, and businesses may face
extra costs if they need to split production lines for different markets.
So Johnson has traded to allow some sort of customs check - hopefully tariff free - in exchange for freedom to deviate from EU standards. Johnson of course says that standards (for products and environmental) will be higher than EU but there is no guarantee. I think the differences are at the edges and not all that substantial but we'll see. The result of all the modeling is as follows:
The trade impacts of our modelling exercise are shown in the table below. Relative to staying in the EU,
income per capita in the UK would be 2.5% lower under Mr Johnson’s proposals, compared to 1.7% under Mrs
May’s deal and 3.3% in the WTO [= no deal] scenario.
And
The model implies aggregate UK trade falls by 10% under Mrs May’s deal, by 13% for Mr
Johnson’s proposals and by 16% in the WTO case.
Certainly according to this analysis anyone who rejected May's deal and then votes for BloJo's needs his/her head examined.

rubato
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by rubato »

The Economist said the same, that Mays deal was better economically.

yrs,
rubato

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

Looks to me like those "models" must be based on basically one assumption...

The greater the economic independence and autonomy from the EU that the UK has, the worse it is for Britain economically...

Which may or may not turn out to be accurate, but which also demonstrates that Johnson's plan must achieve those conditions ( economic independence and autonomy from the EU) to a greater degree than May's...

Which is exactly what he promised to achieve with any new plan he agreed to...

Something else that I think is noteworthy is that there were many who were saying that despite his claims to the contrary, Johnson didn't want any agreement at all and actually wanted a hard Brexit...

Well, he proved those people to be wrong...

He's willing to accept a hard Brexit, but he's making an honest effort to avoid it...

From what I've seen on the political side most of the opposition to Johnson's plan comes from those (regardless of whatever objection du jour they may be voicing) who would oppose any plan because they reject Brexit entirely, (he's brought on board those who opposed May's plan because they didn't think it achieved sufficient autonomy; that's why he was able to bring in more votes than she was ) and their real goal is to gum up the works so badly that they can get a "second bite of the apple" with a second Brexit referendum...

A referendum with which they would hope to put the fix in for a Remain result (because polls consistently show that despite the relentless proselytizing against Brexit from the press, a second "clean" up or down referendum vote on Brexit could very well yield the same result as the first one) either by loading the question in some way:

Something like. "Do you want Britain to remain in the EU, or do you want to leave, even if that means an economic depression and the dissolution of the United Kingdom?"

Or by having a referendum with three or four choices with Remain of course being the default if none of the options achieved a majority...(a virtually certain result, with such a closely divided electorate...)

These folks have simply never accepted the expressed will of the voters since the day the results were announced, and have worked tirelessly ever since that day (with a huge assist from their like-minded allies in the mainstream news media) to undo the vote by any means necessary, no matter how undemocratic those means might be...
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Per LJ: These folks have simply never accepted the expressed will of the voters since the day the results were announced, and have worked tirelessly ever since that day (with a huge assist from their like-minded allies in the mainstream news media) to undo the vote by any means necessary, no matter how undemocratic those means might be...
That sounds to me like an argument in favor of Trump: he's undeniably the result of the 'expressed will' of the votes according to the constitution.

The voters came out in support of Brexit in 2016 - there is no dispute about that. There is also no question but that they were lied to, notably by the then Foreign Secretary BloJo with his claim of £350 million extra, per week, for the NHS once UK was out of the EU.

Voters were not given sufficient information about the costs (both in terms of £ and the sheer amount of work to rewrite laws and regulations) of exiting the EU. For that I blame Cameron who probably thought that Remain was obviously going to win so there was little point in making a big effort. Not unlike the fact that most of us knew that Trump wasn't going to win in the US - there were plenty of stupid voters around but nothing like enough to give him the victory.

There are still those in the UK, mainly in England, who have a 'we won the war!' mindset. I think that in the next five years there will be a revamping of the permanent members of the UN Security Council: in no particular order they will be the US, Russia, China, the EU and the non-aligned countries. Scotland and Northern Ireland will depart the Union - Scotland to go it alone and N Ireland to toss in their lot with their Irish cousins.

I am beyond saddened. We will survive Trump and I think that we can undo much of the damage he has done. The damage to the UK will not be undone and all because of a whim.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

That sounds to me like an argument in favor of Trump
Well then Andy, I suggest you get your hearing checked, because it certainly isn't... 8-)

I've never argued that Trump isn't the duly elected President under the Constitution...(Laying aside of course that unlike Brexit, Trump lost the popular vote.)

But Impeachment is also a completely Constitutional process....

Nobody's suggesting a do-over of the 2016 election...
There is also no question but that they were lied to
That may well be, but that's pretty much par for the course in political campaigns...

As I recall during that campaign David Cameron was running around saying that Brexit would cause WW III...

In political contests typically both sides engage in hyperbole, distortions, and even flat out untruths; its up to voters to do their due diligence and sort it out...

(And I'll add that as a general principle, as I've written before I really reject Trump/Brexit or Trump/Johnson analogies...

It seems to me those analogies fail on many levels...)
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Crackpot
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Crackpot »

Though it would be foolish to ignore where they don’t especially given that two of the differences are intelligence and political savvy.
Okay... There's all kinds of things wrong with what you just said.

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Econoline
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Econoline »

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People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.
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