Brexit On The Brink...

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Darren
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Darren »

I've been talking to several Brits. In many respects they were tired of the samo, samo of politicians bickering instead of working for people. When Labour lost districts they had held for generations early in the count, the writing was on the wall.

Several articles point out there's a lesson for Democrats in the Brits' turn out and smack down of Labour.
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Econoline
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Econoline »

Here's a pretty good (IMHO) analysis — from a militant anti-capitalist who's sometimes too strident for even me to stomach — of the catastrophic failure of Corbynism in general and Jeremy Corbyn in particular.

https://eand.co/how-corbynism-catastrop ... 98ee5789f1
  • How Corbynism (Catastrophically) Bungled the Most Crucial Election in a Lifetime
    How Radical Chic Took Over from Real-World Politics, The Adults Were Kicked Out of the Room, and the Children Burned Down the House

    umair haque | Dec 14

    It was a chilly autumn afternoon in London. In Islington, to be precise — the home of the later-to-be-much-hated metropolitan elites. I was at a cafe, waiting to reluctantly meet with a person connected to a person connected to the Corbyn campaign — which had just assumed power, to much applause, enthusiasm, and hope. Reluctantly — because I had a feeling…

    “Well”, they asked me, hopefully, guardedly “What do you think? Of us? What should we do?”

    “I think”, I said, trying to be gentle, “That you need to grow up a little. I think your contradictions will sink you.”

    “What do you mean?” they asked, baffled, offended. They’d hoped for the unbridled, unquestioned enthusiasm they were getting elsewhere.

    “Well”, I said, reluctantly, “Let’s think about it. You say you want to end austerity. But your focus is still…the deficit. You say you want to solve Britain’s real problems. But you’re for Brexit. You say that you want a fairer economy and that you want to alter the balance of power in society. But you don’t seem to have a way to redefine corporations and profit and GDP. I could go on. Here’s my point.

    “I’m sorry to say it. But. I think all your poorly thought out contradictions will result in a muddle, a mess, that you will sink in. But maybe we can try to resolve all that.”

    Reader, perhaps you can guess the response. A deafening silence, followed by a polite thank you, as chilly as that autumn afternoon. It was at that precise moment I had the sinking feeling — perhaps the grim knowledge — that the Corbyn campaign was going to lose. And the next few years confirmed my worst fears, over and over again.

    Every political campaign can be divided into three elements. The man or woman, the message, and the movement. Corbynism catastrophically bungled each of these three elements. Where a broken society needed a politics of courageous and uncompromising reinvention and reimagination… Corbynism offered a brand of childish, immature student politics, a college leftism of infighting and purity-testing…that the average person rolled their eyes at — and walked away from, en masse, to devastating result.
[...]
  • Now, one of the difficult truths of the world for the left to accept is this: politicians need a modicum of charm. The larger the task, so much the greater. If it’s a revolution you want, you need a Che or a George Washington. Instead, this group of extremists settled — hilariously, baffingly — on a Jeremy Corbyn. A man with all the charm of a cuttlefish. I’m being impolite, to be sure. But hard truths are just that. The single greatest overt reason Corbynism failed — the one that pops up in polls — is Corbyn. People just didn’t like the man. And that’s eminently understandable. In what world was the average person going to like a man who appears to stand for nothing…who surrounds himself with vicious, spiteful, hostile extremists, spouting literal communist refrains?

    So that simple fact — Corbyn being unlikeable, unpopular, untrustworthy — cuts deeper than it appears. Who was Jeremy Corbyn, exactly? Nobody knew. There was no message, remember. And the movement’s extremist ideological refrains were being met with eye-rolls from average people. That left a huge void: the opposition could now define Jeremy Corbyn. And they did. They defined him as a racist. As a fool. As a weakling. As a simperer. A man who’d evade giving you a straight answer a hundred ways. That is how people came to see him. Whether any of that was “true” was besides the point. Politics is ultimately about what people think is possible. And Corbynism failed utterly to change their beliefs about that.

    Sure, the right wing media was against Corbyn, sure, the establishment was. So what? A mature campaign would have understood that — and anticipated it, not played…right into its hands.
[...] ...and the conclusion:
  • The world is not a perfect thing. Human beings are profoundly imperfect, stupid, thankless, weak, fearful. And yet that is what must be supported and held and seen — not attacked — in them, if any progress is to be made. That is the difference between mature, adult politics — and angry, embittered student union leftism. Student union politics forces perfectionism on the world, cries out in rage and despair at them when it’s failing — and happily embraces martyrdom. Mature politics embraces the imperfect, leads people through the valleys of the shadows of the night, and cries out in despair and rage with them. Sometimes, that way, real transformation happens.

    This age needs a revolution. But it needs a revolution of love, grace, courage, truth, beauty, and wisdom. Not one of college leftists politics shouting angrily and spitefull at even friends and allies they’ve come to see as opponents. Not one of student politics, insulting and alienating even would be supporters, with purity tests and moral perfectionism, offering only the impossible choice between joylessness obedient conformity to a hardcore perfectionist fringe…and the status quo’s current-day dystopia. Charmless men, sainted by their admirers, evading big questions, leading angry, bitter legions of the self-professed faithful…straight off the cliffs of martyrdom…and calling all that a job well done…that’s not a revolution. It’s suicide. And that’s what Corbynism was.

    This age does need a revolution, it’s true. But Corbynism tells us how not to ignite one.
(Read the whole article here.)
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Britain has taken a pivotal step towards leaving the European Union as Boris Johnson was rewarded for the Conservatives’ thumping general election victory with a majority of 124 for his Brexit deal in the House of Commons.

Addressing MPs on Friday morning, the prime minister sought to draw a line under three years of bitter parliamentary conflict, urging his colleagues to “discard the old labels of leave and remain”.

After comfortably passing its second reading by 358 votes to 234, the withdrawal agreement bill is on track to complete its passage through both houses of parliament in time to allow Brexit to happen at the end of January.

Charles Michel, the president of the European council, welcomed the vote, tweeting that it was an “important step in the article 50 ratification process”. He added: “A level playing field remains a must for any future relationship,” referring to the EU’s demand for fair competition in exchange for a free-trade agreement with zero tariffs and zero quotas.

Johnson claimed that pressing ahead with Brexit would “allow the warmth and natural affection that we all share with our European neighbours to find renewed expression in one great new national project of building a deep, special and democratically accountable partnership with those nations we are proud to call our closest friends”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rawal-bill
All good news..
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

wesw
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by wesw »

will y0u get y0ur fishing gr0unds back?

if s0, y0u will have a great fishing future.

y0ur fleet is greatly depleted.

that will mean that f0r a few years the st0cks will be under little pressure and fishing st0cks are remarkably resilient if given a bit f time t0 rec0ver.

I have witnessed this in the Chesapeake, and MA with r0ckfish, ie: stripers. and the c0d fish in MA.

if france desn t like it, and they w0n t, well..., let them eat fr0gs f0r a few years....

0ur friends in l0uisiana will be glad t0 supply them t0 their f0rmer brethren....

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RayThom
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Brexit On The Brink...

Post by RayThom »

Gob wrote:
... Johnson claimed that pressing ahead with Brexit would “allow the warmth and natural affection that we all share with our European neighbours to find renewed expression in one great new national project of building a deep, special and democratically accountable partnership with those nations we are proud to call our closest friends”...
That's really deep. You know, hip waders and VapoRub in the nostrils kind of deep. In government circles, and also in blatant self-promotion, this is known as 'glittering generalities.'

Criticize my prognosticator skills but I see much more tunnel and much more darkness before GB gets even a glint of light from Brexit.

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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

Congratulations on at last completing this first step...

Now the same folks who proclaimed that Brexit would be The End Of The World As We Know It are running around with their hair on fire screaming about how impossibly "short" a full year time line is for concluding the requisite trade deals with the EU ...

Balderdash...

It's not like this is something that comes as a bolt from the blue; the major issues are all well known and there have been working groups on both sides looking at the details for years. With this much work already started, 12 months (especially now that the UK finally has a stable governing majority that the EU knows will back it's Prime Minister on whatever arrangements are made) should be more than enough time...
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Bicycle Bill
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Bicycle Bill »

I 'saw' this cartoon about the Brexit break-up today.....

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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Per LJ (good to see you back, BTW - normally [but not in this case, obv] a voice of relative sanity):
It's not like this is something that comes as a bolt from the blue; the major issues are all well known
That's kind of the point. The major issues (Irish border; trade deals; EU-based laws having to be rewritten, etc. etc.) were NOT well known to the British public before the referendum and much of what information there was (£350 million more per week for the NHS) was just plain lies. It reminds me of the votes for the Iraq War which were (mis) cast by the likes of Biden and H Clinton. They were wrong, clearly so with the benefit of hindsight: but their error was at least to some extent based on the information from the likes of Colin Powell. I watched his presentation at the UN and I said how can anyone believe this crap: but if I had known Powell for years and trusted him to be a straight shooter, I might have believed him.

Much of the case of the anti-Bexiteers (aka Remainers) since the referendum was based on the idea that had the people not been fed these lies, they might have voted differently. In much the same way that I believe that if Trump had not lied his way through the 2016 campaign (better, cheaper, more inclusive version of the ACA - remember that?) there might have been a different result.

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

ex-khobar Andy wrote:

Much of the case of the anti-Bexiteers (aka Remainers) since the referendum was based on the idea that had the people not been fed these lies, they might have voted differently.
Most of that is bullshit though. Are you seriously telling me that you in the USA are aware of what information we poor dumb leavers needed to know, but we are not?

That was the biggest lie of the lot.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Exhibit A:

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And no, I don't think that the 'leavers' are poor and dumb. I have some in my family and they are neither. I think they are wrong though.

Having said that, I hope that I am wrong. In much the same way that I hope that all the science I have read on climate change is wrong. There is not a climate scientist in the world among the 97% who is not hoping that they have a decimal point wrong somewhere in their calculations. I hope that Britain has the future you and I both want, prosperous and healthy outside the EU.

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

The bus says that we send the EU £350 million, this was true, (but ignored our rebate.)

The bus said "lets fund the NHS instead".

I read that as, "lets take a portion of the money we waste on the EU, and give it to our valued health service."
£33.9 billion funding boost for the NHS
20 hospitals are being upgraded
40 new hospitals will be built

We’re supporting our NHS to give people the care they need now and making sure it’s there for our children and grandchildren.
The Conservatives have been running our NHS for 44 of its 71 years, and fundamentally believe it’s there for everyone in the country to rely on free at the point of use.

By keeping our economy strong, we’ve been able to support our NHS since 2010. But because of the Brexit deadlock it recently hasn’t had the attention it deserves.

That’s why we need to get Brexit done and get on with bringing the change people voted for. Including giving the NHS its biggest cash boost in history, and making sure this funding gets to your local hospital and GPs.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

One thing's for sure throughout this crisis, the EU isn't relevant. What of the leadership and the sense of solidarity?

The EU all but abandoned Italy to its own fate, as did the European Central Bank (ECB)

The reality is that the EU members states have shut borders to each other (using the phrase 'to foreigners') in a show of solidarity I expect.

Germany even banned the exports of surgical face masks to Italy. So much for the freedom to trade across the common market.

Italy appealed for assistance though the EU civil protection mechanism....and no member states heeded the call. Ironically it was China that came to Italy's assistance. Sending them PPE and a medical team.

Then what's the whole point of a Union if it can't provide leadership in the time of crisis. We endlessly heard how it was set up to make Europe safe and coordinate to avoid crisis.

Moments like these that reveal the truth. When it comes to it, each country looks after its own interest.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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The head of the European Union's top science organisation quit today over the bloc's handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Mauro Ferrari was only appointed president of the European Research Council on January 1 this year.

But he said in a formal statement announcing his decision to resign that he had been 'extremely disappointed by the European response' to the pandemic and that he had 'seen enough' of the EU to prompt him to walk away.

The European Commission subsequently confirmed Professor Ferrari had quit, with spokesman Johannes Bahrke saying: 'I can confirm that Professor Ferrari resigned.'

In that statement the EU's top scientist complained about running into institutional and political obstacles as he tried to quickly establish a scientific program to combat the virus across the continent.

'I have seen enough of both the governance of science, and the political operations at the European Union,' he wrote in the statement.

'I have lost faith in the system itself.'

Prof Ferrari, who had been due to serve a four year term at the ERC, reportedly formally submitted his resignation to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday afternoon.

Prof Ferrari said in his statement that he had been a 'fervent supporter' of the EU when he had first taken the job.

In that statement the EU's top scientist complained about running into institutional and political obstacles as he tried to quickly establish a scientific program to combat the virus across the continent.

'I have seen enough of both the governance of science, and the political operations at the European Union,' he wrote in the statement.

'I have lost faith in the system itself.'

Prof Ferrari, who had been due to serve a four year term at the ERC, reportedly formally submitted his resignation to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday afternoon.

Prof Ferrari said in his statement that he had been a 'fervent supporter' of the EU when he had first taken the job.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ponse.html
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by MajGenl.Meade »

He was so mad at the EU that he said it twice! (Or is that a rule per Brussels?)
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Lord Jim
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

Some good news:
UK’s Boris Johnson out of intensive care as condition improves

LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved out of intensive care, his office said Thursday.

In a statement, a spokesman at 10, Downing Street said Johnson “has been moved this evening from intensive care back to the ward, where he will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery.”

Johnson had been in intensive care for three days after his symptoms for coronavirus worsened. He tested positive for the virus two weeks ago and at first had only “mild” symptoms.
Yes, I know he could still have a reversal, but since his condition never deteriorated to the point where he required a ventilator, his prospects for a full recovery should be pretty good...

He should be back on his feet pissing people off again pretty soon... :ok
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

The coronavirus crisis has exposed the truth about the EU: it's not a real union

The European Union has scraped through its latest crisis by the skin of its teeth. The past week has been a disgrace. When ministerial talks collapsed on Thursday over the plan for a “coronabond”, the reaction seemed terminal. Germans and Dutch insulted Italians and Spaniards. Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said his country faced an “economic and social emergency”, and the EU appeared not to care. The Danes spoke of “a financial crisis on steroids”. The European commission’s vice-president, Frans Timmermans, predicted “the EU as we know it will not survive this”.

Finally a last-minute package was agreed, for €500bn of emergency loan finance. This was little more than an extension of the existing European stability mechanism, designed to help individual countries in short-term emergencies. Even then, it was a mere third of what the European Central Bank had said was needed, €1.5tn euros. What was specifically not agreed was any sharing of the economic burden of the pandemic across European treasuries in general. It was mostly more loans.

The reason was glaringly obvious, and as old as the EU itself. The northern European nations within the eurozone still do not trust the hard-pressed southern ones to spend money wisely and pay back their debts. It was the same reticence that governed the slow reaction to the 2008 financial crisis. In other words, the EU is not a true political union, like the United States or Russia or even the United Kingdom. When one EU country hits trouble, as Greece and Italy have done over Mediterranean migrants since 2015, the EU itself is silent. It turns its back and hopes trouble will go away.

Continues...
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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Boris Johnson has said he owes his life to the NHS staff treating him for coronavirus.

The prime minister, 55, thanked medics at St Thomas' hospital in London, where he continues to recover after spending three nights in intensive care.

In his first public statement since being moved out of intensive care on Thursday, Mr Johnson paid tribute to the medics treating him, saying: "I can't thank them enough. I owe them my life."

Speaking as she led the government's daily coronavirus briefing on Saturday, Home Secretary Priti Patel said the PM needed "time and space to rest, recuperate and recover".

BBC political correspondent Ben Wright said that "No 10 does not want to speculate about when the PM might leave hospital or be back at his desk, but a return to work does not look imminent."

"The prime minister is expected to rest and recover in the coming weeks and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will continue to deputise - and will be in charge when ministers carry out a review of the lockdown measures."

Meanwhile, a message posted from the prime minister's Twitter account wished the country a happy Easter, as worshippers mark the festival from home.

"This year across the country churches will remain closed and families will spend the day apart," the message said.

"But by staying home, remember, you are protecting the NHS and saving lives".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52258980
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

It’s just over two years since the UK voted to leave the European Union in what proved to be a shock result that caught both politicians and commentators off guard. Unlike Lord Ashdown’s hat-eating, or Matthew Goodwin’s book eating after the two most recent General Elections, many didn’t get held accountable to their off the mark Brexit predictions.

Happily, Mr S is on hand to correct that. Steerpike has compiled a list of some of the Brexit predictions that failed to come true:

1. JP Morgan: Scotland will leave the UK and get a new currency

Days after the EU referendum, investment company JP Morgan announced in an email to clients that they expected Scotland to leave the union and change currency. (As did Andrew Marr in the immediate aftermath of the vote.) Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed that Scotland is neither independent and nor using a currency other than the pound. In fact, since the EU referendum, 40 polls have shown support for the union, whilst only four have come out in favour of independence. Sturgeon’s IndyRef2 gamble backfired - and she lost several seats in last year's general election as Scots expressed recoiled from her plan. In JP Morgan's defence, they said it would have to happen before 2019 - though it’ll have to be a hectic few months...

2. Arron Banks: New UKIP to become official opposition

Ukip mega-donor and self described 'bad boy of Brexit' Arron Banks is far from a shy man, as shown by his comments to the Guardian a week after the referendum:


'I think we have a good shot at taking over from Labour as the opposition because Labour are imploding and Labour voters for the first time ever have defied their party, voting for leave,'
Perhaps Banks was trying to speak something into existence when he predicted a new, pro-Brexit party would overtake Labour as the opposition party of the UK, amongst other claims. Ukip went on to collapse and has not managed to poll above 5pc this year...

Where Banks was right however, was when he diagnosed UKIP 'had problems with personnel' - oddly self-aware too.

3. Goldman Sachs: Recession by 2017

As the old saying goes, economists predict fifteen of the next two recessions. Mr S feels it has never been more adequately applied than to Goldman Sachs’ note, which declared the British economy would go into recession by early 2017. (Goldman had donated £500,000 to the Remain campaign.) Credit Suisse predicted a 1pc fall in GDP and Nomura a 1.3pc fall. Chris Giles, the normally brilliant economics editor of the FT, also predicted recession and started a weekly series of economic indicators in his newspaper which he thought would point to this recession. Instead, economic growth actually accelerated: growth was 1.4pc.

4. HM Treasury: Half a million job losses

Whilst there were many incorrect takes after the referendum, none quite match the Government’s Project Fear centrepiece: HM Treasury analysis:the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.

In the milder of its two disaster scenarios, HM Treasury predicted the UK would slide into recession, "unemployment would increase by around 500,000 with all regions experiencing a rise in rise in the number of people out of work". It felt able to be very specific: 24,000 job losses in Wales, 43,000 in Scotland, etc. Instead, more than half a million jobs have been created - across every UK region and unemployment has been forced to a 43-year low. Still, at least the Government didn’t bluff an emergency budget! Mr S is in no doubt the Treasury has taken its error on the chin, and has now learnt the lesson of its anti-Brexit bias

5. Robert Ward: UKIP revival, Labour split and end of two party politics

Not as grand a claim as many other of the claims in this piece, The Economist’s Robert Ward's post-Brexit take was impressive, merely by how many individual aspects were completely wrong. Ward claimed UK politics post-Brexit would have more smaller parties (wrong), that Labour would inevitably split (wrong), and that UKIP would take advantage of Labour’s weakness (very, very wrong). Fair play to Robert though - you don’t score any of the shots you don’t take.



“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

Only another seven weeks until the divorce is finalized on Dec 31. I'm taking bets on whether Trump will concede before or after this all goes down.

In the meantime, another unintended consequence. The roads and hedgerows of Kent (bottom right, next door to those pesky continentals) may become latrines because in the first flush of excitement (sorry about that) after the declaration we forgot about those poor lorry (=truck) drivers waiting in line for border inspection.

You can read all about it here. This is serious: don't pooh-pooh it.

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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

More Grauniad scaremongering.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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