Brexit On The Brink...

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Lord Jim
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Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Lord Jim »

Splits, handbags and a Remain poll: what the Sunday papers said about Brexit

Talk about the prospect of a second referendum is rife, along with that of a Corbyn government

Exclusives dominate Sunday’s coverage as the clock ticks down to a vote that is widely expected to possibly end in a heavy Commons defeat for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The crystal balls are well and truly out as to what happens before, during and after that.

The Mail on Sunday has an interview with May in which she warns party rebels it’s her deal or the double whammy of a Corbyn government and no-deal Brexit. She says Britain “would truly be in uncharted waters” if the deal is voted down, though some might say the UK is already well into that territory.

The paper also suggests she might dash to Brussels this week to secure more concessions. May’s human side is demonstrated by the sidenote that she eats peanut butter straight out of the jar on stressful days.

The Independent’s Sunday edition carries an exclusive poll by BMG Research suggesting December saw the Remain vote edging into a majority among the public after months of steadily rising support. Almost half of those polled think May’s deal is a bad one. Perhaps this was all part of the plan?

The Observer focuses on a split – yes, another one – in cabinet over the issue of a second referendum. Some ministers feel it might be the only way to secure support for May’s deal, on which the PM’s heart appears set. One cabinet source said: “The polls have been remarkably stable for a while, but there does seem to be some kind of movement [to Remain], and that could well develop in the coming days and weeks.”
More:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... out-brexit

I was (and still am) a Brexit supporter, but I have to say it is sure looking like nobody knows how to get this done...

It would be easy to blame this on the fact that for the most part Brexit is being handled by people who never really supported it in the first place (like May) but the fact is that those political leaders (like Boris Johnson) who were full-throated supporters haven't covered themselves with glory either...

To the best of my knowledge none of them, (including Johnson) has come forward with any alternative plan, nor are they mounting any serious effort to topple May from the leadership, (presumably because none of them want this tar baby dumped in their lap...)

Basically this appears to be the situation:

You have a public that remains deeply divided on the issue, a Parliament without majority support for any plan or alternative, and cowardice-all-'round on the part of the political leadership...

I suppose it remains barely possible that May can somehow cobble together the support she needs for the plan she negociated, (that would require her to exhibit political skills vastly superior to those that she has ever shown before...) but at the moment the whole thing looks like a five star cluster fuck...
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Gob
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

A cock up on a collosal scale. Mainly due to is having a remainder PM, and a leaver opposition "leader." The best we can hope for now is a hard Brexit, brought on by the EU's ingrained intransigence.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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Brexit and the Condorcet paradox.
    • The problem with referenda, writes Jonathan Portes – and especially this one – is that they often present binary choices which do not necessarily reflect voters’ true preferences. This can force politicians to implement policies that are at odds with the will of the majority. He uses the Condorcet paradox to illuminate the difficulty, and asks what it mean for Parliament after the referendum.
Do you prefer wine to whisky, but whisky to beer; and, perhaps, beer to wine? If so, you have intransitive preferences (that is, preferring A to B and B to C does not mean you necessarily prefer A to C. Rock beats scissors beats paper beats rock!). In fact. when it comes to drinking this isn’t really a problem, at least in my experience – context matters – but it is more of an issue with politics and policy. If you said that you preferred David Cameron as PM to Boris Johnson, and Johnson to Jeremy Corbyn, but Corbyn to Cameron, we might conclude that you were more than a little inconsistent.

But that’s not the case for the electorate as a whole. The Condorcet Paradox notes that while each individual voter may have transitive preferences, this may not be true of the electorate as a whole. That is, A may be preferred to B by more than 50% of the electorate, and B to C, but also C to A, without this pattern actually being true of any individual. We may not be inconsistent individually but we can be so collectively.

Normally this situation doesn’t bother us much in our Parliamentary democracy. We elect MPs; the party that gets a majority forms a government, and the government decides between A, B and C. This system may have its own issues, but the paradox either never arises or is at least obscured. But this need not be true of referenda, particularly if it turns out that the subject of the referendum isn’t really a binary choice.

And so it would appear for this one. It has been increasingly clear that there are not two, but three choices in this referendum. Remain in the EU; Leave, and seek to “make our own way in the world”, by negotiating bilateral trade agreements not only with the remaining EU, but with third countries; or Leave, but seek, at least for an interim period, to recreate a large part of the preferential trading arrangements we currently have with the EU, most obviously by joining the European Economic Area. This last is sometimes referred to as the Norway option (or, by its proponents, Flexcit). A clear description of how it might work is here.

Now there are lots of complications here. But for these purposes the only things that really matter (certainly as far as the vast majority of the electorate is concerned) is that what I will call the “straight Leave” option means both that the UK would no longer be part of the Single Market and that we would no longer have free movement with the rest of the EU; while the Norway option would mean that we would retain both.

The proponents of Brexit, and in particular the Vote Leave campaign, had to choose; which Leave option would they advocate? And they faced a dilemma; as my colleague Matt Goodwin has repeatedly emphasised, the risk to the economy from leaving the EU (and excluding ourselves from the Single Market) is by far Remain’s strongest argument; adopting the Norway option might reduce the perceived risk and hence the potency of this issue. But, and ultimately more importantly, immigration and free movement are Leave’s trump cards. They have concluded that by adopting the Norway option, or even allowing it to remain on the table, they would be ruling out the only strategy that gives them any chance of success: concentrating almost all their fire on immigration in the last few weeks of the campaign.

Now suppose they are right, and that, in a straight fight, the electorate do indeed prefer “strong Leave” to “Remain”. What happens next? This is where the Condorcet Paradox comes in. In this case, it would be up to Parliament (with, quite possibly, a new Prime Minister and other ministers) to implement Leave. While Parliament and the government would obviously and rightly be bound by the referendum to negotiate the UK’s exit from the EU, they wouldn’t be bound by anything that Vote Leave had said about how that should be done. With the likelihood of at least some turbulence in financial markets – and, more seriously, with strong pressure from business to resolve the situation in the least destabilising way possible – economic arguments, as well as those of practicality, will come to the fore again.

So, at this point, the Norway option for Leave re-emerges; and, as James Landale has reported, “pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market”. Would this be defying the will of the electorate? Not obviously; there would likely to be majority support for such a move. Given a decision to Leave, a majority of electorate would probably prefer the Norway option to “straight Leave” (presumably almost all of those who voted Remain, as well as some of those, albeit a minority, who voted Leave). So there would be nothing obviously anti-democratic about Parliament and Whitehall proceeding on this basis.

But the irony, of course, is that given a straight choice – which, in this scenario, they wouldn’t have had – a majority of the electorate would probably have preferred Remain to the Norway option; indeed, the considerable polling evidence that they couldn’t win on the basis of the Norway option is precisely why Vote Leave chose to rule it out and to focus the campaign on immigration. So the Condorcet cycle is closed; no option is strictly preferred to both the others; and whichever we choose, there’s an alternative preferred by a majority of the electorate.

Where would that leave us? Well, I’ve speculated enough already. But I think there are three key conclusions from this. First, when you’ve got more than two choices, referenda may not be as democratic as they seem. We could easily end up in a place which neither of the campaigns was arguing for. Second, and for obvious reasons, this could be a recipe for continued instability. We may find that, wherever we end up, a majority of us still feel dissatisfied. And finally – a point I’ve made before – that this might be the wrong time to have a referendum; if we’d waited, perhaps we’d have been presented with a genuine clear-cut choice.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by rubato »

Brexit is working out exactly as I said it would. A total no-brainer. The EU is saying "we are large and you are small if you leave you will either have to accept our rules with no input or go pissoff." The EU is problematic because national parties are too small to have any clout so the real and perceived influence of any national organization is small and national parties both feel and are powerless. The answer is to do what Yanus Varoufakis has recommended and building trans-national political parties who will be large and broad enough to have some real political clout in a trans-national political organization. But the isolationist, racist, ignorant, rural Brits are too dense to ever figure that out.
...
Brexit = Trumps Britain.

Tough nuts. You got your wall and finally figured out which side you are on.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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A right thrashing:
UK leader Theresa May suffers resounding defeat on her Brexit divorce deal

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has overwhelmingly lost a crucial vote on her Brexit plans in the House of Commons, the U.K.'s lower house of parliament.

May lost by 230 votes after lawmakers voted by 432 to 202 to reject the deal. Politicians from different political parties rejected the proposed Withdrawal Agreement, currently the only deal agreed with the European Union on how Britain should exit the bloc in March of this year.

It's reportedly the largest defeat for a sitting government in U.K. political history.

Despite the result, and expressing a defiant tone, May told lawmakers that she wanted to show those who voted leave the EU that it was her "duty to deliver" on Brexit.

No confidence vote due

Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, said he would now table a motion of no confidence in the government during parliamentary business on Wednesday. Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party — which is the third largest party in the parliament — confirmed that it would support Labour's motion.

May's deal with Europe is seen by some as a sell-out to the ideals of Brexit, reducing Britain's influence while staying within many of the EU's rules. And many of those who oppose Brexit didn't like the deal either. They have argued that it will reduce Britain's ease of trade with the world, repel global talent, and increase the cost of living.

The result creates a political vacuum in the Brexit process, with no firm certainty as to what might happen next. Potential outcomes range from a revised attempt by May to force her plan through, a second Brexit referendum or even a General Election.[Or a "hard Brexit"...a Brexit with no deal with the EU in place, which almost no one in the political class, on any side of the issue, wants]May added on Tuesday evening that she would now make a statement to the Commons on Monday 21 where she is due to present a "plan B" for the exit agreement.

May also confirmed that she would make time to debate Corbyn's no-confidence motion.

"We need to confirm whether the government enjoys the confidence of the house. I believe that it does but given the scale and importance of tonight's result it is right that others have the right to test that question if they wish to do so," she said.

Tuesday's vote in the House of Commons was termed the "Meaningful Vote" and granted lawmakers to have their say on the terms of Brexit that the EU and British government have already agreed.

It was only granted to U.K. lawmakers after British businesswoman Gina Miller won a 2016 court case in the High Court of Justice, demanding that Parliament must have a say.

On June 23, 2016, voters in the U.K. favored leaving the EU by 51.9 percent. The U.K. is legally set to leave the political and trading bloc on March 29.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/theresa ... ament.html
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

One of the advantages of having had Margaret Thatcher as PM, and now Theresa May, I can, or should be able to, say that she is a right fucking idiot without having to explain why this is not misogynistic.

Having said that, I'm not sure that it's true. She had expressed a pro-Europe position before the referendum two years ago, but was not one of the active Remainers. It's possible that she was keeping a foot on both sides of the fence so that she might be in position to take over as PM from David Cameron if the referendum went against them. That of course is what happened, and Cameron, as the mover of the referendum and the most visible of the Remainers, had to resign. So in a sense her plan to become PM worked perfectly.

I think that she was on a hiding to nothing. It's difficult to know what Brexit deal would have satisfied a majority of the country. As it happens I am reading the Churchill biography (Andrew Roberts - brilliant - I share the NYT view) and there is a lot there. Despite Churchill's faults, and there were many (Gallipoli and his unreconstructed casual racism which was a Victorian trait are two) he was able to learn from his mistakes and he was single minded about victory in WW2, even during the dark days of the blitz and Dunkirk. There are stories of him walking through London after a night of attacks and the people who had been blasted out of their homes and lost relatives told him: we can take it, just get the bastards who did this. (Hitler apparently drove through bombed Berlin with the curtains on his Mercedes closed.) Britain could use a Churchill now, and May ain't it.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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I wondered at the time, (given how far the Anti-May forces fell short) and this massive defeat has made me wonder even more, if the May and her allies might not have had a Machiavellian role in engineering the leadership challenge that she won last month...

Under Conservative Party rules, having survived that challenge, another one cannot not be brought against her for a full year...

It seemed to me, (and seems even more to be the case, in light of the historic dimensions of that Parliamentary vote debacle) that it was much to her advantage to have the leadership challenge vote before the Brexit vote (and thus be inoculated against another challenge for a year) rather than have it after...

Between the scale of that defeat yesterday, and the way she managed to turn a Thatcher After The Falklands type lead into a barely hanging on with a minority government with her disastrous snap election performance., May has revealed herself as perhaps the most ineffectual British politician of modern times...
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by rubato »

The pro-brexiteers are still suffering under the delusion that the UK can trade with the EU under terms different than all other non-EU members. Why they cannot figure this out is beyond me.



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Brexit On The Brink...

Post by RayThom »

A few of my English cousins are saying that a referendum or government change would be best in order that Article 50 could be revoked, and subsequently lead to Brexit being canceled once and for all.

However, they are skeptical that May will even consider such a move.

They got May and Brexit... we got Trump and the Wall.
Sad.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

RayThom wrote:A few of my English cousins are saying that a referendum or government change would be best in order that Article 50 could be revoked, and subsequently lead to Brexit being canceled once and for all.

However, they are skeptical that May will even consider such a move.

They got May and Brexit... we got Trump and the Wall.
Sad.
This is going to sound like a sexist comment but let me try. I think it is possible that May, as a woman, has to fight against stereotype more than a man would. Simply put, if she changes her mind as a woman there will be those who see it as fickleness, whereas a man who does the same might be said to be making a wise adjustment due to a change in circumstance. There is a fine line between standing firm and being obtusely stubborn. It seems to me that the British were lied to by those who had their own reasons for wanting Brexit; and once the reality had set in of what it meant, what the costs would be, what the (often hidden) real advantages of EC membership were, I think that many have changed their minds. I think that there were many (not many, but enough) Trump voters who didn't really want Trump as President but he was never going to win anyway so what's the harm in sending a "Pay attention to me!" message to the regular pols. In the same way there were many Brexit voters (recall that the prevailing wisdom before the referendum was that it would be for Remain by a few points) who just wanted to send a message.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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rubato wrote:Brexit is working out exactly as I said it would. A total no-brainer. The EU is saying "we are large and you are small if you leave you will either have to accept our rules with no input or go pissoff."
What the EU is actually saying is "We cannot survive without you paying our way, so we're going to try and extort cash out of you for leaving."
The EU is problematic because national parties are too small to have any clout so the real and perceived influence of any national organization is small and national parties both feel and are powerless.

The EU is a fucking mess, like the US's system but with 24 different languages, and many more different cultures and nationhood.
The answer is to do what Yanus Varoufakis has recommended and building trans-national political parties who will be large and broad enough to have some real political clout in a trans-national political organization.

Oh fucking brilliant idea, usurp the national interest of countries who have been around since the USA was an native American country, just to make up a failed German/French project. Christ you are a fucking moron Asperger's boy.
But the isolationist, racist, ignorant, rural Brits are too dense to ever figure that out.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Said the man living in the country who voted for Regan/Bush/Trump!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
...
Brexit = Trumps Britain.
Brexit = UK leaving the German/Franco pact.
Tough nuts. You got your wall and finally figured out which side you are on.
Imbecility again on your part, we are not having a wall. Nobody in politics in the UK or Europe is as dumb and ignorant as the fucking dire shitheads who rule, and have ruled, your country.

When is California succeeding BTW? Got healthcare free at the point of delivery yet?
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by rubato »

California is already succeeding. But seceding is a fantasy. Like Brexit.


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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by rubato »

https://www.sfgate.com/world/article/Fe ... 581698.php
Fears grow: ⅓ of British firms consider move abroad over Brexit

LONDON — Nearly a third of British firms may shift their operations abroad because of Britain’s looming departure from the European Union, a survey of 1,200 company directors suggested Friday, as the political stalemate over a Brexit deal heightened jitters among businesses.

The survey by the Institute of Directors, an employers’ group, found that 16 percent of businesses already had relocation plans while a further 13 percent were “actively considering” a move. ..."
Putin must be laughing his ass off since he's got idiots to support both Brexit and Trump.

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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The Institute of Directors (IoD) warned that 29% of firms in a survey of 1,200 members believed Brexit posed a significant risk to their operations in the UK and had either moved part of their businesses abroad already or were planning to do so.

More than one in 10 had already set up operations outside the UK as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more likely amid Westminster gridlock. Most firms considering a move were looking to open offices inside the European Union, said the IoD, which represents 30,000 firms.
Smart moves on their behalf. However, hardly a representative sample, and as usual, a highly biased survey from the pro-EU IOD.

Italy has officially slipped into recession, and Europe as a whole is essentially at an economic standstill, raising anxieties that the world is on the verge of a significant slowdown.

In Italy, the government’s debt load is one of the highest in the world. A prolonged economic slump would significantly add to the risk of default, with global repercussions.

The European Central Bank has in the past come to the rescue of Europe, and Italy in particular, but it has less scope to do so now. The bank is scaling back its purchases of government bonds, a stimulus measure that helped ensure there were buyers for Italian government debt.

“We have weaker economic momentum and at the same time the E.C.B. is getting out of the market,” said Katharina Utermöhl, an economist at German insurer Allianz. “That means there is less room for policy mistakes.”
German economic growth is set to weaken to the slowest pace in six years in 2019, held back by a deteriorating environment for global commerce hobbled by worries about trade disputes and Brexit.

After expanding 1.5 percent in 2018, Europe’s biggest economy will likely grow 1.0 percent this year, almost half the 1.8 percent pace forecast as recently as October and the weakest since 2013, the Economy Ministry said Wednesday.
“If you trust in yourself, and believe in your dreams, and follow your star. . . you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things and weren't so lazy.”

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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by BoSoxGal »

Watching ‘Brexitannia’ on Amazon Prime video - well worth the time!
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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And the Speaker of the House says no more Brexit votes this parliamentary session unless on a "substantially different" question.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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Hard exit then?
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Scooter »

Looks more like trying to get an extension on the Article 50 process. Everyone recognizes that a hard exit will be chaos, whether they publicly admit it or not, because no one is ready for it. The inspection protocols that will have to be imposed in both directions will alone be enough to bring trade to a virtual standstill.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

Post by Gob »

Hard Brexit would do me fine.
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Re: Brexit On The Brink...

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It's a huge political conundrum...

There is simply no majority to be had within the political establishment for any course of action...

There's no majority support for hard Brexit, no majority support for a new referendum, and no majority support for any soft Brexit deal that has been proposed...

Parliament cannot muster a majority to go forward, go backward, or stay in place...

And yet one of these things must happen...

And of course fueling this complete political impasse is the fact that according to all the polling the British public remains every bit as divided right down the middle on the issue as it was 3 years ago (it's at most 52-48 percent one way or the other split, depending on the poll)

When you have that kind of persistent division within the electorate, the only way to break the logjam is for the politicians to step up and demonstrate political courage...

(Yeah right :lol: )


From the EU leadership perspective, their primary vested interest is in seeing that all other member countries are discouraged from doing what Britain is attempting to do, so one of two outcomes works for them:

A.Britain leaves the the EU and falls on its face economically.

B. Britain finds it too complicated and politically agonizing to find a way to ever leave the EU, and therefore stays in either through endless "extensions" for exit, or ultimately a second referendum.

Either of those two scenarios works fine from the EU perspective because both would have the effect of discouraging other countries from trying the Brexit route.

The one scenario they do not want is "Britain leaves the EU on terms that leave it doing well economically, thank you very much"...

So consequently, if May wants an extension, they only want to grant a long term one:
The European Union is likely to tell Theresa May that she must decide by mid-April whether to extend Brexit until 2020 or risk leaving in three months without a deal, a senior EU official said.

At a summit in Brussels on Thursday, leaders are likely to deliver an ultimatum that would give the British premier just three weeks to decide whether to gamble on getting the current Brexit deal through British Parliament by July.

If she decides she can, the EU is almost certain to deny any further request for a Brexit delay were she to fail, the official said. That risks a no-deal exit in July. If she decides she can’t, the EU is likely to grant an extension into next year, which would be politically toxic at home.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rexit-fate

So the EU position is "either sign on for another 21 months (from now till the end of 2020) or adios"

I don't know if a hard Brexit would bring on the sort of economic calamity that so many are predicting or not. I do know that many previous predictions of economic calamity for the UK related to Brexit have proven false.
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