To Shut Down Or Not To Shut Down...

[ex-khobar Andy]

I hope the Secret Service is being paid. There are all those terrorists down there on the other side of the border just waiting to take a pot shot at him.

[Lord Jim]

Actually, they are not getting paid...

The Secret Service got moved from Treasury to Homeland Security when that department was created, and none of the law enforcement agencies under the DHS are getting their paychecks. (Though they're all required to show up for work.)

[ex-khobar Andy]

According to NYT IRS will be issuing refunds.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/us/p ... tdown.html

It's a little unclear from the story, but apparently there was some sort of legal reason why they could not issue them. To quote from the piece

Under previous shutdown plans — and interpretations of federal law — the I.R.S. was prohibited from dispensing tax refunds when Congress has not approved money to fund the Treasury Department, as is the case now.

OK - but if the legal restraint is gone, how are they going to do it while they are furloughed? According to the IRS website, most of them are out. The Federal News Network stated, before the lockout, that 88% of employees would not be working during the shutdown.

[Sue U]

I would hope they also permit a rebuttal.

A rebuttal, and also a fact-check analysis. (Though traditionally, the audience that stays tuned for a rebuttal and analysis drops off a lot after the President finishes speaking. But of course these aren't traditional times...)

They should have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez do the Dem reply; it would be hilarious to see her segment draw a much bigger audience share than Trump.

[BoSoxGal]

[RayThom]

... They should have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez do the Dem reply; it would be hilarious to see her segment draw a much bigger audience share than Trump.

With the GOP feeling AO-C's dancing video is scandalous, I'd have her rebuttal start with her "BU pride" dance routine.

This PT Barnum sideshow would be broadcast by all media. It would be ratings gold for any network, especially their news analysis upon opening and closing. I know I couldn't ignore it -- and I cringe every time Lord Dampnut open his fucking mouth.

"A glutton for punishment" as my father used to say before taking off his belt to teach me a lesson. He taught me good.

[Econoline]

[Lord Jim]

House GOP leaders fear support eroding for Trump’s shutdown fight

A growing number of Republican lawmakers could vote for Democratic measures to reopen the federal government.

Several dozen House Republicans might cross the aisle this week to vote for Democratic bills to reopen shuttered parts of the federal government, spurring the White House into a dramatic effort to stem potential GOP defections.

White House officials and Republican congressional leaders worry that GOP support for the shutdown is eroding, weakening President Donald Trump’s hand as he seeks billions of dollars for a border wall that Democrats have vowed to oppose, according to GOP lawmakers and aides.

Hoping to sway skeptics in his party and the broader public, Trump will make an Oval Office address Tuesday night to discuss what he called the “Humanitarian and National Security Crisis on our Southern Border," he said on Twitter. Then he will visit the border region on Thursday.

Vice President Mike Pence and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen will address House Republicans on Tuesday evening. The House is scheduled to vote Wednesday on a Democratic bill designed to fund the IRS and several other agencies, the first of four bills Democrats hope will peel off Trump's GOP support in the House.

Without more money, the IRS could have a problem processing tax refunds. Russ Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, reversed course Monday and said refunds will be paid out, another move by the White House to mitigate the effects of the shutdown.

The Democratic funding measure is one of several narrow measures that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and party leaders will push forward this week. The bills are designed to put pressure on GOP lawmakers to break with Trump and support re-opening the nine departments hit by the 17-day shutdown. More than 800,000 federal workers are currently not getting paid — roughly 350,000 remain on the job without pay — with their first missed paycheck coming later this week.

Despite the White House PR blitz, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) and other senior Republicans believe that “a significant bloc” of House Republicans could vote with Democrats on the funding measures, according to GOP lawmakers and aides.

A senior House GOP aide said McCarthy and his top lieutenants believe 15 to 25 Republicans will vote with Democrats this week, possibly even more.

"We have a lot of members who are gonna want to vote for these things," said the GOP aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Publicly, we will never tell them to do it. Privately, we will tell them to do what they have to do."

However, GOP leaders say they can keep that number below 55, a key threshold. That many Republican defections, coupled with all House Democrats, would reach 290 "yes" votes, a veto-proof majority. House Democrats can't overcome Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) refusal to bring up their bills, but such a vote would signal the House can override a Trump veto, a major blow to the president and his allies.

“The biggest thing we can do to back the president up is to keep it below veto proof,” the GOP aide added. “That's a win for us.”

“I think the more that you have people not getting paid, the more the stories coming out about the hardships this shutdown is creating, not just for federal workers but those who rely on federal agencies to get their work done, people are shaking their heads,” said Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, one of seven House Republicans who voted with Democrats last week to reopen the government. “I think it’s a pretty unsustainable position, and I felt that early on.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/ ... wn-1085348

Trump can spout nonsense all he wants about how he's getting more support from the public over this than anything else he's done, but the best barometer of how the public pressure is really going is which party is having its members of the House and Senate change their votes...

If the number of GOP House members ready to buck Trump on reopening the government has gone from seven last week to "several dozen" this week, (three GOP Senators are now also calling for a Senate vote on the Democratic House bills...it's reasonable to assume that number will grow as well) it's easy to see how the number could pass the veto-proof threshold next week...(Especially with the first missed paychecks due to come this Friday.)

Another reason I think the chances that Trump will go the "national emergency" hoax route are going up...

[Lord Jim]

Looks like they're going to give him the time (Apparently he's only asking for eight minutes, though he could be lying about that; it's not like they'll cut him off):

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is taking over the nation’s airwaves Tuesday night to argue his case for a U.S.-Mexico border wall — and Democrats are not happy about it.

Representatives for ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox Broadcasting, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, MSNBC and NBC confirmed plans to air Trump’s address live at 9 p.m. Eastern.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer say Democrats should be given time to respond after Trump’s address.

“Now that the television networks have decided to air the President’s address, which if his past statements are any indication will be full of malice and misinformation, [That's the world's safest bet] Democrats must immediately be given equal airtime,” they wrote in a joint statement Monday night.

Trump’s address will come in the third week of a partial government shutdown, the result of a stalemate with congressional Democrats over $5 billion the president wants for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. Democrats are refusing to pay for it, noting that he repeatedly promised that Mexico would foot the bill for it.

The speech is part of a public relations blitz by the president. Trump has scheduled a trip to the border Thursday to highlight his demands for a wall.

https://www.apnews.com/7bdc30f1b28c4b668c1df2385a5c79b2

[Econoline]

I would hope they also permit a rebuttal.

A rebuttal, and also a fact-check analysis. (Though traditionally, the audience that stays tuned for a rebuttal and analysis drops off a lot after the President finishes speaking. But of course these aren't traditional times...)

They should have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez do the Dem reply; it would be hilarious to see her segment draw a much bigger audience share than Trump.

I would suggest that the rebuttal be given by...

→ PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA!!!!! ←

(Besides the fact that it would be intelligent, intelligible, honest, and factual, it would be a nice reminder of what a *REAL* Presidential address sounds like.)

[Sue U]

Excellent point.

[Lord Jim]

I was thinking that Jim Mattis would be a good choice...

[ex-khobar Andy]

Interesting NYT piece about the effects of the shutdown on the Florida panhandle which is deeply Trumpist. On top of the lingering effects of Hurricane Michael some of these folk are going to go under. The local federal prison was badly damaged, so they had to move the prisoners to another penitentiary 400 miles away in Mississippi, and the FL prison guards commute there for two weeks on, two weeks off. They of course are not being paid and not getting their expenses for travel, accommodation etc.

According to one of these prison employees, Crystal Minton: “I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” she said of Mr. Trump. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” (My emphasis added.)

Do we need a clearer expression of the Trumpist mindset?

[Lord Jim]

Apparently Chuck and Nancy have decided they will jointly give the response themselves...

(Which won't really make for compelling television, but in this case probably makes sense, since they are the ones on the Democratic side directly involved in the process of resolving the shutdown. And they are also likely to figure prominently in Trump's remarks...)

Major networks will carry Democratic response to Trump immigration speech

Several major networks announced on Tuesday morning that they will air the Democratic response to President Donald Trump's prime-time Oval Office address on immigration.

All of the major broadcast networks — CBS and NBC, as well as Fox and ABC, according to Variety — will show the response. On cable, MSNBC, CNN and Fox News will carry the response. On Monday, all of of the major networks said they would air the president's speech, prompting Democratic leaders to call for space to rebut him.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... ch-n956051

I like Joe Scarborough's idea...

He suggested this morning that the networks have someone fact checking Trump in real time and breaking in every time he tells a blatant lie while he is speaking...

Too much to hope for...

[eddieq]

Put him on a 10 second delay and use a buzzer and "LIE" stamp over his mouth each time. Although that would just end up being a still photo of him with "LIE" stamped on his mouth and a constant buzzing.

[Big RR]

He suggested this morning that the networks have someone fact checking Trump in real time and breaking in every time he tells a blatant lie while he is speaking...

I would watch it if they did that.

[ex-khobar Andy]

He suggested this morning that the networks have someone fact checking Trump in real time and breaking in every time he tells a blatant lie while he is speaking...

I would watch it if they did that.

So would I. Of course they will need much more than a ten second delay: they will use that up with the first lie which will probably happen in 30 seconds or less. Maybe a ten minute delay with 10 seconds' interruption per lie - that would give time enough to address 60 lies which ought to be enough.

[BoSoxGal]

Interesting NYT piece about the effects of the shutdown on the Florida panhandle which is deeply Trumpist. On top of the lingering effects of Hurricane Michael some of these folk are going to go under. The local federal prison was badly damaged, so they had to move the prisoners to another penitentiary 400 miles away in Mississippi, and the FL prison guards commute there for two weeks on, two weeks off. They of course are not being paid and not getting their expenses for travel, accommodation etc.

According to one of these prison employees, Crystal Minton: “I voted for him, and he’s the one who’s doing this,” she said of Mr. Trump. “I thought he was going to do good things. He’s not hurting the people he needs to be hurting.” (My emphasis added.)

Do we need a clearer expression of the Trumpist mindset?

It’s such a perfect expression of the great Trump delusion; they still don’t get that HE is one of the people who should be ‘hurting’ (paying more taxes, acquiescing to more regulation, having less influence on politics).

[Lord Jim]

A few quick thoughts...

Interesting that after all the bloody shirt waving about terrorism from his minions recently, he didn't say the words "terrorism" or "terrorists" one single time...(He also said absolutely nothing about declaring a "national emergency"...)

I felt like Trump and Schumer/Pelosi were for the most part talking past each other...

He wanted to talk about crime and drugs pouring over the border and only mentioned the government shutdown in passing, while their main focus was all about the shutdown and the damage it is doing...

[BoSoxGal]

I just can’t bring myself to watch him speak. I’ll endure it in clips as analysts overthink it.