Unexpected Development In Israel...

[Lord Jim]

It was widely expected that Netanyahu would once again cobble together a governing coalition but it looks like for once he couldn't find a rabbit in his hat:

Israel will hold new elections after Netanyahu fails to build coalition

Jerusalem (CNN)Israel will hold new national elections in late summer after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to put together a coalition government from the parties elected to parliament on April 9th.

It's the first time in Israel's history that a general election has failed to produce a government.

The new elections, scheduled for September 17th, are the result of a bill to dissolve parliament introduced into the Knesset earlier this week.

The bill had its third reading shortly after midnight local time and was passed into law by Knesset members by 74 to 45, just moments after Netanyahu's deadline to form a government expired.

Less than two months after what seemed like a clear victory for Netanyahu in the April 9thelections, the long-time Israeli leader backed a move to dissolve the 21st Knesset, in a last-ditch attempt to break deadlocked negotiations between the parties.

Talks had become stuck over a proposed draft law, which would conscript more ultra-Orthodox Jewish youth into the military. The ultra-Orthodox parties demanded changes to the bill, while former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman wanted it passed with no changes at all.

Netanyahu, who has handled difficult coalition negotiations in the past, was unable to broker a compromise between the parties.

Speaking after the vote early Thursday morning, Netanyahu lashed out at Liberman accusing him of never intending to reach an agreement.

He accused Liberman of repeatedly making fresh demands during coalition negotiations and said Israel was being "dragged" back to the ballot box because of "the private ambitions of one person."

Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party won only five seats out of the 120 in the Knesset, but Netanyahu needed them to build a coalition bloc with a working majority. Without them, he was stuck on 60. [61 needed for a majority. ]

In the six weeks given to Netanyahu to form a new government, the Prime Minister deployed a host of different approaches to pressure Liberman to concede ground.

Netanyahu's Likud party attacked Liberman in the media, the pro-Netanyahu Israel HaYom newspaper calling Liberman a fraud.

Netanyahu tried to salvage things by making overtures to the opposition Labor Party, but it refused to join in his government. And the centrist parties won’t enter into a coalition with him because of the charges of bribery and corruption that the prime minister is facing.

He also offered different iterations of the draft bill with small changes designed to facilitate agreement.

US President Donald Trump had even tried to give Netanyahu a boost on Twitter, saying on Monday, "Hoping things will work out with Israel's coalition formation and Bibi and I can continue to make the alliance between America and Israel stronger than ever. A lot more to do!"

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/29/middleea ... index.html

[RayThom]

The plot thickens! I'm praying to my Lord and Savior, Jesus H. Christ, that our neurosyphilitic, White House clown prince, Lord Dampnut, will stump for his good khaver, Bibi.

This is going to be a great referendum on both of these assholes. Let the voting begin.

[Sue U]

The call for a snap election is another desperate attempt for Netanyahu to hang on to power (and not-so-incidentally attempt to thwart indictment and trial on corruption charges), rather than allow Benny Gantz -- whose Blue & White party tied with Likud at 35 seats -- to attempt to form a government. However, it is a delicious irony to see racist war-mongering nutjob Avigdor Lieberman be the spoiler keeping Bibi from the premiership -- particularly through insistence on a more secularist policy regarding military service. But like the rest of the world, the overall political trend in Israel toward authoritarianism is pretty depressing.

[Scooter]

I don't think there was a path to Gantz putting together a majority, partly because blatant voter suppression was at least partially responsible for shutting out some Arab parties and other groupings on the left. New elections where the populations targeted are aware of and can plan to challenge the tactics probably afford a better chance.

[Lord Jim]

Wow, what a surprise...

Another too-close-to-call election...

Israel’s election results show Netanyahu is in serious trouble

No one outright won. But Netanyahu did worse than he hoped and may lose office because of it.

The September Israeli election results are in — and it’s still not clear who the country’s next prime minister will be. But the results are the biggest threat to incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power since he took office in 2009.

With over 90 percent of the vote now counted, the centrist Blue and White party looks to have won the largest number of seats in Israel’s parliament, called the Knesset — 32 out of a total of 120. Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud came in a close second, with 31 seats.

Obviously, neither one of these parties has enough for a parliamentary majority on its own. Which means they will either have to make some kind of power-sharing deal with each other and form what’s called a “national unity” government or else cobble together some kind of coalition out of the seven smaller parties who made the Knesset. The most important of these is Yisrael Beiteinu, a hawkish secular party whose allegiances are very much up in the air. Its leader, former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, is widely described as a “kingmaker” in the Israeli press.

So who will come out on top here? Honestly, no one knows yet. But there is a real chance that Netanyahu will lose the top job even if his party remains in power. Benny Gantz, the head of Blue and White, has said he’s interested in a national unity government — but only if Likud dumps Netanyahu.

This is the fight of Netanyahu’s political life — and his personal one, too. Because if he loses, he will have no way to protect himself from imminent indictments on corruption and bribery charges. A defeat in coalition negotiations for Netanyahu might not just be the end of his political career; it could be the end of his freedom.

Most experts think the smart money is on some kind of national unity government, which would likely include Blue and White, Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, and possibly others. But no one is quite sure exactly who would lead such an arrangement.

Netanyahu could remain prime minister in some fashion — perhaps if he agrees to step down when the criminal indictment against him is formally filed. Gantz could end up sole prime minister. Another Likud member could end up with the top job, fulfilling Gantz’s condition that Netanyahu no longer hold the premiership. The wackiest scenario is that the parties could quite literally share power — with Gantz and some Likud leader taking turns holding the top job. This has happened before in Israeli politics, weird as it sounds.

Pretty much everything now depends on backroom negotiations among Gantz, Netanyahu, the rest of Likud, and Lieberman. Again, no one actually knows how this will go or even if a national unity government is workable. There are other possible arrangements too, though the numbers make it tricky for either a unified right or center-left bloc to hold power.

So basically, everything’s up in the air. The only thing we can be absolutely certain about is that Netanyahu, a canny politician, will fight like hell to maintain his hold on power. Facing the risk of jail time, his last hope is to pass a law immunizing himself from criminal charges so long as he holds office. To build enough support for this obviously shady bill, he’d likely need to remain prime minister.

More:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... -netanyahu

Maybe Gantz"s National Unity government effort can be made to appealing enough to the rest of the Likud leadership to get them to dump Bibi, but nobody ever got rich betting against Benjamin Netanayu...

[Lord Jim]

Gee, look who's calling for a unity government now.... (of course he also thinks he should be the one to lead it...)

Israel Election Results: Netanyahu Tells Gantz 'We Must Form Unity Government, Meet Me Today'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on rival Benny Gantz to meet him "at any hour today" in order to hold discussions. "We must form a broad unity government," he told the Kahol Lavan leader, whose party widened the edge over Likud according to the latest election results.

A spokeswoman for Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White party, had no immediate response to the surprise offer from Netanyahu, head of the right-wing Likud party.

The change of strategy reflected Netanyahu’s weakened position after he failed again in Tuesday’s election, which followed an inconclusive ballot in April, to secure a parliamentary majority.

“During the election campaign, I called for the establishment of a right-wing government but to my regret, the election results show that this is impossible,” Netanyahu said.

With 97 percent of the votes counted, Kahol Lavan has won 33 out of 120 Knesset seats, with Likud behind with 31 seats. Netanyahu's bloc, comprised of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties, currently stands at 55 seats. The center-left bloc has 57 seats.

Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party is projected to have eight seats, is expected to be the election's kingmaker. On Wednesday morning, he reiterated his support for a "broad liberal unity government," which would include Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud and Kahol Lavan.

[Sue U]

Ha'aretz hedder: "Netanyahu Says He Wants Unity Government; Gantz: I Will Lead It"

Given the election results, I frankly don't see any way to a government unless Netanyahu goes, which he is refusing to do. If Lieberman weren't such an asshole, a truly visionary result could be his party in a coalition with Kahol Lavan, the Joint List (!), Democratic Union and Labor-Gesher, entirely excluding both Likud and the religious parties. This could give Lieberman the double satisfaction of royally fucking over both Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox, but he's just too much of a racist jerk to sit in a government with the Arab parties.

If the people weren't so sick and tired of the constant electioneering and attendant bullshit, I'd predict another election. But at this point, no predictions about anything.

[Lord Jim]

Israel braces for political fight after Netanyahu indictment

The indictment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to sharpen the battle lines in Israel’s already deadlocked political system and could test the loyalty of his right-wing allies, Israeli commentators said Friday.

The serious corruption charges announced Thursday appear to have dashed any remaining hopes for a unity government following September’s elections, paving the way for an unprecedented repeat vote in March, which will be the third in less than a year.

In an angry speech late Thursday, Netanyahu lashed out at investigators and vowed to fight on in the face of an “attempted coup.”[Gee whiz...where oh where have I heard that phrase before...]

The prime minister is not legally required to step down but faces heavy pressure to do so, and it is unclear whether an indicted politician could be given the mandate to form a new government. Netanyahu has already failed to form a majority coalition of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset after two hard-fought elections this year.

“This will not be an election, it will be a civil war without arms,” columnist Amit Segal wrote in Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper. “There is a broad constituency that believes what Netanyahu said yesterday, but it is far from being enough for anything close to victory.”

Writing in the same newspaper, Sima Kadmon compared Netanyahu to the Roman emperor Nero, saying “he will stand and watch as the country burns.”

Netanyahu was indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust stemming from three long-running corruption cases. He has denied any wrongdoing and accused the media, courts and law enforcement of waging a “witch hunt” against him.[ "witch hunt"...geez, that's another one that sounds awfully familiar...]

The corruption charges will weigh heavily on Netanyahu’s Likud party, but it’s unclear if any senior member has the support, or willingness, to replace him.

Hours before the indictment was announced, Gideon Saar, a senior Likud member, said a party primary should be held ahead of any future elections and that he would compete. But there are several other leading members of the party, and it’s unclear if any one of them can gain enough support to topple its longtime leader.

Some Likud members expressed support for Netanyahu after the indictment was announced, but most have remained mum.

“If the attorney general should indeed announce that Netanyahu can no longer form a government, will (Likud members) stand up openly and work to form an alternative government? For that to happen, they will have to sit together in one room and trust each other, which is something that has not happened for the past decade,” Segal wrote.

Nevertheless, he concludes, “the great threat to Netanyahu is now posed from within.”

It will be interesting to see if the Likud party leaders can summon up the courage to abandon their corrupt and crooked leader, or (like their Republican counterparts here in the US) will they be too afraid of a backlash from his supporters to stand up and do the right thing...