Trump in a landslide 2020

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BoSoxGal
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Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by BoSoxGal »

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
Published 11:33 AM ET Tue, 15 Oct 2019 Updated 5:55 PM ET Tue, 15 Oct 2019
CNBC.com

President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody's Analytics shows.
"If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition," the report states. Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
The Moody's models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.

President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to reelection next year under three different economic models Moody's Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race. Barring anything unusual happening, the president's Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Moody's based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump's tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.

"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm's director of government counsulting and fiscal policy research, and Bernard Yaros, an assistant director and economist. "It's about turnout."

Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
Of the three models, he does best under the "pocketbook" measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat's 187. "Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory," the report said.

In the stock market model, Trump gets a 289-249 edge, while the unemployment model shows a 332-206 advantage. Across all three models, Trump wins 324-214.

"Our 'pocket¬book' model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition," the report said. "This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

Stock market levels also are key, and the two are intertwined. Zandi said that even a garden-variety 12% market correction around election time could sway the race, as could an unexpected downturn in the economy.

The results might come as a surprise given Trump's consistently low favorability ratings — 40% in the latest Gallup poll — and as most head-to-head matchups against Democrats show the president losing.
However, the report said that Trump's relatively stable ratings help provide a good benchmark for how he will do once election time comes.

Zandi said the race could come down a few key counties in Pennsylvania, which Trump flipped in 2016 after the state had voted Democrat in the previous five presidential elections.

Specifically, he said Luzerne County, in the northeast part of the state, "is the single-most important county, no kidding, in the entire election." The longtime Democratic stronghold favored Trump, 51.8% to 46.8% in the election.
Trump doesn't even have to win the county, but merely needs a strong turnout, Zandi said.

The Moody's models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when they ndicated Clinton would get a narrow victory. The authors attributed "unexpected turnout patterns" in Trump's favor caused the error and they adjusted for that in the latest projections. They also said they will be updating the projections as conditions develop and change.
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Lord Jim
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

Gonna be real tough to get to my Happy Place after reading that... :?
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ex-khobar Andy
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by ex-khobar Andy »

If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks
There's a very big if. I think voters - enough of them anyway - are smarter than that.

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eddieq
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by eddieq »

I used to think voters were smart, then we got President DJT.

Big RR
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Big RR »

Fear not, this is the same Moodys Analytics which predicted Trump's loss, and Clinton's victory, in 2016. They are not error free.

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Scooter
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Scooter »

Yeah, the fact that the very same factors should have created a Clinton victory in 2016, but didn't, suggest that they are not going to be the driving factors in 2020 either.
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

It's important to bear in mind that while voters generally vote based largely on how they feel they are personally doing financially, this is a very atypical situation...

I don't have time to check, but I am certain that if I did I would find that in all those elections where Moody's got it right and the incumbent President was re-elected while the economy was seen as strong, you would also find that those Presidents also enjoyed far higher job approval numbers than our current Putzident...

Plus none of those Presidents were running for re-election with polls showing a majority of Americans favoring their Impeachment...

As George F. Will once quite succinctly and correctly observed, "Conventional wisdom is always correct...until it isn't."

(Of course if the Dems nominate someone that Trump and the RNC and their allied Super Pacs are able to successfully portray as a person who would pursue polices that would tank the economy, that would certainly have an effect on the vote and his re-election prospects)
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Big RR »

I'm not sure, but I think W's numbers were similar before the election; but you are right, there are a lot of other factors which could influence it.

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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Econoline »

(1) "...IF voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks..."

(2) "...IF the economy a year from now is the same as it is today..."

(3) "...IF Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote..."

And (4) "Barring anything unusual happening..."

Ummmm...how can anyone NOT see what's happening right now as "unusual"???
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Econoline »

From Adam-Troy Castro on Facebook:
  • If Trump skates on this, you honestly don't want to know what rough beast the Republicans will nominate next. Honestly. Assuming he is re-elected and the country still exists as a Republic in 2024, they will then have the certainty that raging psychotic simpletons WORK for their base, and they will pick from *that* demographic, and the attitude will be, "Another one like that, please, only more so." It's what happened between Nixon and Reagan, and between Reagan and Dubya, and it's what happened between Dubya and Trump. Honestly. They will nominate Joe Arpaio and laugh at the oh look on your face.
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Darren
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Darren »

I'm seeing the same factors going into 2020 as I saw in 2016. I won money betting on Trump to win.

What I'm seeing is continued large turnouts for his rallies. The media is still attacking which has continued his under dog status. It's also deceived candidates on the Democrat side into believing that Trump is going to be impeached any day now. And the golden ring is within their reach if they can out pander each other.

So far Sanders has raised the most money followed by Warren and Biden. The Democrat machine will not let Sanders win. I'm surprised he thinks he has a chance after California. That alone suggests a lack of critical thinking ability.

The media has created a circus with occasional shots from the circular firing squad. It's undeniably ugly. None of that is going to work in flyover country. It's so bad, I can't get anyone, with one exception, to bet against Trump.

Last but not least, Trump has collected more money that all three of the top Democrat candidates.

Who wants to bet against Trump? The money goes to my charity if Trump wins. If Trump loses, the money goes to your charity.
Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by RayThom »

Darren wrote:I'm seeing the same factors going into 2020 as I saw in 2016. I won money betting on Trump to win.

What I'm seeing is continued large turnouts for his rallies. The media is still attacking which has continued his under dog status. It's also deceived candidates on the Democrat side into believing that Trump is going to be impeached any day now. And the golden ring is within their reach if they can out pander each other.

So far Sanders has raised the most money followed by Warren and Biden. The Democrat machine will not let Sanders win. I'm surprised he thinks he has a chance after California. That alone suggests a lack of critical thinking ability.

The media has created a circus with occasional shots from the circular firing squad. It's undeniably ugly. None of that is going to work in flyover country. It's so bad, I can't get anyone, with one exception, to bet against Trump.

Last but not least, Trump has collected more money that all three of the top Democrat candidates.

Who wants to bet against Trump? The money goes to my charity if Trump wins. If Trump loses, the money goes to your charity.
If you say so.
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Darren »

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Thank you RBG wherever you are!

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Scooter
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Scooter »

Trump's face on what looks like Putin's body, how appropriate.
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Bicycle Bill »

You know, I'd like to see Trump in a landslide.

Or more accurately, underneath a landslide.
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Econoline »

Darren wrote:What I'm seeing is continued large turnouts for his rallies.

What I'm seeing is the same people who voted for Trump last time still supporting him this time—and *NOBODY* who voted against him changing their mind and supporting him this time.

In 2016 Trump won the Presidency by a combined margin of 77,744 votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. If everyone in the whole country votes exactly the same this time as last, *EXCEPT* for just 78,000 people in those 3 states changing from Green to Democrat, Trump loses. (Or for that matter, if just 1% of the voters who stayed home last time—because they didn't and still don't like Clinton, and they didn't and still don't like Trump—get up off their asses and vote against Trump because they still don't like him...yeah, again, Trump loses.)
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Trump in a landslide 2020

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wesw
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by wesw »

maybe this crew isn t really stupid.
any takers ?

nah.....

friggin' Darren....

a riddle, masked in an enigma, inside a mystery...

wh0 is this masked man and why is he wise?

idk .

many black men and many white middle class men have been swayed by Trump.

black chicks as well.....

kill him....

impeach him....

y0u will l0se the referendum.......

wesw
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by wesw »

...never bet against the h0use.....

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Lord Jim
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Re: Trump in a landslide 2020

Post by Lord Jim »

wesw wrote:...never bet against the h0use.....
Ain't it the truth...

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(you walked right in to that one wes... :mrgreen: )
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